Prime Minister Støre’s introduction at the opening of Oslo Forum

Based on the transcript from the video recording

[Question from Comfort Ero: Prime Minister, how do you mediate in such a complex, brittle environment?]

Well, thank you for that. It is “payback time” – well, David (Harland) and Comfort (Ero), thank you. Let me say, at the start, that I think; among many negative signs, this is a good one: that this hall is packed.

And you know, there were a few people at the first meeting. I have been coming here regularly, and I think; the fact that we are able to bring together with our good partner, David, you and your colleagues, and fill this room with this crowd, I think – I mean, let us take notice, this is a good sign. Because there is an interest to look beyond and look more into what it really takes to answer your question.

And you know, I will say, as a good social democrat, this is not an “I question”, it is a “we question”. We have to find these answers together. And we have been working on that for the past two decades here at the Oslo Forum. I think it is a valuable opportunity to look into the key questions. Let me then reflect on a few of the issues:

One of the issues is that what we have understood and invested in, over these years, is the need to really invest in the skills of mediation, facilitation and understanding conflict. Sometimes it has to be about being at the right place at the right time with the right people.

But looking at the solution of some of these more really entrenched, long-term conflicts, I think that this issue of preparing well, understanding the other side, understanding what drives conflict, all the key issues of any conflict resolution, I think comes back as something we have appreciated.

We have to invest in peace however hopeless it seems.

We have to value the issue of dialogue, and I think, it is really something that cartoon drawers hang on to me, that – you know, I appreciate dialogue – as I think you know, but for me the analysis is that the opposite of dialogue is monologue. And that rarely takes us where we want to come.

And dialogue; I think is a much more sophisticated issue than simply talking together, because dialogue means that you are really able to perceive what is on the other side; where are the bridging points.

And I think also, as Foreign Minister Anniken (Huitfeldt) highlighted, I think the critical role of women, and I met the superb foreign minister of Indonesia, and you know other women in the room, it is a crucial change that we have seen in this group of environment. It takes us closer to understanding conflict, who are suffering from conflict, and how we can get out of conflict, and the number of participants here I think speaks to that.

And then a bit on – you know – reflecting on the world scene, as you say. You know, on the one hand, we experience a lot of fragmentation, and I think the more we look at it, it is interconnected. Everything is so interconnected, and the danger analytically is that we end up with a very fragmented world. We want every conflict, but they are really interconnected.

What I see now as a challenge to our analysis is that, and let me take Norway; when Norway became, kind of gained its Constitution in 1814, our border was just our national border, and we were in the blockade from the Napoleon Wars. That was our outside. Today, 200 years later, we are probably the most open economy in the world. And the analysis is that, and let me take Norway – and when, I think the more we look at it, it is interconnection. Everything is so interconnected.

So, we are really, you know, globalized, and against this fragmentation that we see, I think that there is a danger of having geopolitical risk back as a major issue to understand local conflicts, because geopolitical risks really enter into every issue of a single conflict, be it on the issue of technology, on the economy, on energy, and all these different dimensions that have to be taken into account.

And then, of course being Prime Minister of Norway, I have to revert, you know, briefly to the war going on in Europe. We are telling our public opinion that inflation is back, for the first time in a generation, but what is the truth now is that a full-fledged war is back for the first time in two or three generations. So, the consequences and the implications of this war are just not to be underestimated.

You know Norway's position on this. Russia is our neighbour. So having a brutal attack war by a neighbour, of course, has major implications on our security outlook. And that's why we have to be very clear on our condemnation, and Norway has taken a clear position. Ukraine has the right to defend itself.

But at this forum, I'd just like to say; that this war, in one way or another, has to stop, and there has to be a chapter after the fighting. And we need to get to that chapter sooner than later, because the implications not only for Europe, the neighbours, but the global south and the rest will be, I think, very serious.

And let me say that in our support package for Ukraine, which is a five-year program supporting Ukraine; humanitarian, military, economic support, we also have included a major package for the global south; those who are most affected now by food prices, energy prices, to support them.

It is important for us to say, and there are colleagues from the global south, and as you reminded me, Minister, it is important to listen to their concerns, understand their concerns, and to highlight that this is really the essence of interconnection.

And then people who are in this room have to prepare for what it will take to end this conflict in a way that will reduce instability and bring some sense of a future security architecture in Europe. Because the danger, as I perceive it, and you know my position on the war, it is absolutely clear, is that there are tendencies that people tend to cut out Russia from the map, as it will no longer be there when this is all over. That is wrong.

I mean, during World War II, there were discussions about the future world architecture far earlier than the end of the war, to prepare for that, and we have to start preparing for what it will mean to find an end to this conflict. So now I know, Comfort (Ero), we will talk. But let me just say in the end here, that Norway has been ready to engage and to try and support processes that at the outset seem to be a bit beyond low-hanging fruit.

And what has been brought to the public in recent weeks, is what happened around Libya in 2011. And I think that highlights an example of how close we could have been to a quite different outcome. As Foreign Minister, I had in Oslo in April 2011 both sides of that conflict. It was after the UN vote, the UN resolution enabling all available means. But it really was an opportunity, I believe, to find a constitutional track for Libya that would not have been the open track to full-fledged war, instability and where we are now. So, you know, it is a sad fact that that was not how it happened, but there are lessons to be learned in what that could have been.

There are also lessons, Jonathan (Powell), to be learned about what you did in Northern Ireland. It is not perfect now. I heard your reflections on this recently in one of the podcasts that we listened to, trying to become wiser. But I think it is immensely important that leaders really took all the time and effort to go into that conflict. Where would it have been if you had not achieved what you achieved at the time?

So let us not be discouraged. Let us know that investing and keeping the hope, that our skills in trying to find common purpose must never be thrown away, because the alternative is just horrible, especially in the world as we see today.

So welcome to Oslo and the Oslo Forum. I hope you will sweat today because it is the warmest day of the year. Some of you come from warmer climates, but you are a heartfelt welcome and I look forward to your work. Thank you.

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For more information on Oslo Forum 2023, incl. video recordings:

• Oslo Forum 20th anniversary retreat delves into peacemaking challenges and openings as polarisation grows – Video, photos & text | HD (hdcentre.org)