The National Budget 2025:
Key Figures in the National Budget 2025
Press release | No: 41/2024 | Date: 07/10/2024 | Ministry of Finance
The Ministry of Finance publishes selected key figures at 8 am, prior to the publication of the budget, which includes more detailed projections, at 10 am.
The backdrop for the budget is an economy with prospects for stronger growth and continued low unemployment. After a few years of high inflation economic policy appears to have successfully brought inflation down without causing a significant increase in unemployment or negative growth. With prospects for wage growth well above inflation this year, household purchasing power is expected to improve and contribute to higher growth in the Norwegian economy in 2025.
The government has significantly strengthened defence, security and preparedness as a result of international events in recent years. These areas are also prioritised in the budget for 2025.
Fund spending in 2025 is estimated at NOK 460 billion and corresponds to 2.5 percent of the estimated value of the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) at the beginning of next year, well below the long-term 3 percent guideline stipulated by the fiscal rule. The budget proposal provides an increase in fund spending as a share of GDP for mainland Norway, from 10.4 percent in 2024 to 10.9 percent in 2025. Measured in fixed 2025 prices, the increase is NOK 27.8 billion.
Table: Key figures in the National Budget 20251
|
|
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
|
Norwegian economy |
|
|
|
|
|
GDP for mainland Norway (volume) |
0.7 |
0.7 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
|
Employment, persons |
1.3 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
|
Unemployment rate, registered (level) |
1.8 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
|
CPI |
5.5 |
3.7 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
|
CPI-ATE |
6.2 |
4.1 |
3.2 |
2.7 |
|
Fiscal policy |
|
|
|
|
|
Fund spending, per cent of the GPFG2 |
3.0 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
|
|
Non-oil fiscal deficit, NOK billion |
290.5 |
347.8 |
413.6 |
|
|
Structural non-oil fiscal deficit, NOK billion |
367.6 |
416.5 |
460.1 |
|
|
Structural non-oil fiscal deficit, NOK billion, fixed 2025 prices |
397,7 |
432,3 |
460,1 |
|
|
Structural non-oil fiscal deficit, per cent of trend GDP for mainland Norway |
9.6 |
10.4 |
10.9 |
|
|
Structural non-oil fiscal deficit, per cent of trend GDP for mainland Norway. Change from previous year (fiscal impulse)3 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
|
¹ Percentage change from previous year, unless otherwise stated. Figures for 2024-26 are forecasts.
2 Structural non-oil fiscal deficit, per cent of the GPFG at the start of the year.
3 Percentage points.