5.6 Main differences in projections between current and previous report
Differences between the current projections and the projections in BR4 are due to changes and corrections in the historical inventory, to the actual trend since the previous base year differing from the projections, and to reappraisals of future trends in activity and technology.
Since BR4, Statistics Norway has made several changes in the emission inventory. Corrections in energy data led to increased emissions in the latest years, but reduced emissions earlier in the time series. Revised methods for venting in the oil and gas industry gave reduced emissions in the latest years, while revised methods for agriculture and wastewater led to increased emissions throughout the period. A reallocation of emissions in petrochemical industries from Energy to Industrial processes did not affect total emissions, but is the cause of most of the changes in these sectors for 1990–2010. Net changes excluding LULUCF were small and variable, with a net increase of 0,2 Mt in the last common year (2017).
The actual emissions in 2020, which is the base year for the current projections, were 1,7 Mt lower than projected in the BR4. This shift includes corrections and methodological changes as discussed above, but the main differences are due to actual changes from the expected trends. This is mainly due to lower than projected emissions from the petroleum sector. Reduced activity due to the pandemic particularly affected air transport.
Reappraisals of future trends include increased use of electric vehicles (transport) and further reductions in the petroleum sector, among others due to higher expectations to electrification of offshore installations. Some use of CCS and other technological advances were also included.
For LULUCF, several methodological changes in the national greenhouse gas inventory have led to changes also in the projection. For instance, the climate models have been changed from static to dynamic. Using a dynamic climate model has resulted in somewhat lower removals of carbon in litter in managed forests, due to higher decomposition rates. In addition, the reference period is changed from 2010–2017 in the previous projection to 2006–2020 in the newest projection. The latter reference period entails higher logging intensity in managed forests, and hence a decrease in carbon removals. The trend is similar to the 2019-projections, but the removals in managed forests are generally lower.
The total effect is that emissions excluding LULUCF are projected to be 6.4 million tonnes CO2 equivalents lower in 2030 than in the BR4. Including LULUCF, the projected emissions in 2030 are 2.6 million tonnes CO2 equivalents lower than in the BR4.
Table 5.9 Changes in GHG emissions compared with BR4 by sector. Mill. tonnes CO2 equivalents
Sector | 1990 | 2000 | 2010 | 2020a | 2025b | 2030 | 2035b |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Energy | -0.9 | -1.2 | -1.6 | -2.9 | -6.8 | ||
Transport | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.0 | -0.7 | ||
Industry/industrial processes | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | ||
Agriculture | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.0 | 0.2 | ||
Forestry/LULUCF | -0.6 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 3.9 | ||
Waste management/waste | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | ||
Total with LULUCF | -0.4 | 5.9 | 2.2 | -0.4 | -2.6 | ||
Total without LULUCF | 0.2 | 0.1 | -0.5 | -1.7 | -6.4 |
a) Comparisons for 2020 show the effects of both changes in the historical inventory and differences between the actual trend and projected trends in the BR4
b) Comparisons for 2025 and 2035 are excluded, as these years were not included in the BR4 report.
Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Environment Agency, NIBIO and Ministry of Finance