Army Summit – «Predicting the unpredictable», Minister of Defence Anne-Grete Strøm-Erichsen, September 17th

Opening speech by Minister of Defense Anne-Grete Strøm-Erichsen at the 2013 Army Summit, Akershus Fortress, Oslo, September 17th.

*Check against delivery*

Generals, Ladies and Gentlemen,

It is a great pleasure addressing you at this year’s Army Summit. I am especially glad to see the increasing number of participants this annual summit attracts. An international list of speakers as well as audience reflects the position this event is gaining.    

Last Monday we had the Parliament election in Norway. As a result of this election my Government will resign after the State budget has been presented to the Parliament.

To use an expression from the theme of today, this was not an unpredicted result. The polls have indicated such an outcome. This was not a matter of predicting the unpredictable.

After eight years in Government, the voters have clearly opted for a change. One should remember that even two election periods in a row is a rarity in Norway, and even more so in other European countries. Hence a third period would have been an unpredictable result.  

As I represent the outgoing Government allow me to offer a few remarks on the general direction of our defense policy this Government has taken forward.

It took us more than a decade to get to where we are today. Today we can look back on one of the largest and most successful restructuring in the public sector in modern times.

It is the story of a sector that has gone from crisis to sustainable balance. And it is a story of armed forces that once struggled to commit relevant force contributions to international operation. Today our contributions are timely, relevant and highly in demand.

If I were to highlight one single element that has been crucial, again using a wording from this summit, it would be predictability.

Predictability in the sense, that plans have been funded and not changed along the way. And predictability in delivering on our promise in three successive long term plans. I hardly think we can emphasize enough how important this is for the armed forces.

There are many who deserve the credit for this. Farsighted politicians from many political camps have contributed to this process.

And of course, the Armed forces have done its part. They have shown will and determination. The real agents of change are therefore those employed in our defense organization.

This takes me to all those employees. Predictability is also here a key word. This is especially the case when speaking of our soldiers participating in international operations. They should know that there is system in place ensuring their well-being before, during and after international service.

I am proud of what we have achieved with regard to our veteran policy. We did this because we recognized that over the years this area had been neglected. And we did this because we, as politicians, are responsible for sending our soldiers to remote places promoting our values and political goals.

This responsibility does not end as you wish them goodbye. We have a continuing responsibility. We have an obligation to support veterans that require help and care in the aftermath of international service.

I entrust the incoming Government to remain as ambitious. The foundation is laid.

A modernized and capable Army

This is also the case for the Norwegian Army. We have an Army which is undergoing a thorough modernization.

Many here would recall where we came from. It is less than ten years ago that our Army was in dire straits. It had outdated equipment. It lacked personnel. Worst of all, it was an Army not designed for the tasks it was expected to solve.

Today we have a capable Army with a clear footprint in both North and South. We have an Army that is being equipped with the latest weapon systems. And we have an Army that trains and exercises more frequently and on a larger scale. 

The Army’s manpower has grown steady since 2005. It is bigger Army and a more flexible force. And it is an Army with highly competent personnel.

One battalion in Troms is being developed as a light infantry battalion. A second mechanized battalion is being more professionalized in the north. Together with the existing battalion in the South, this will form the backbone of our Brigade North.

This constitutes a significant enhancement of the Army’s potential capabilities. It ensures a fighting power for years to come. It is this modernized and capable Army we will build on when or if unpredictable events occur.

The Norwegian Army has carried a heavy burden in Afghanistan. With a reorientation of our force contribution in Afghanistan, this burden will be significantly reduced. This would allow us once again to build up and conduct regular training at brigade level.

On the other hand, this may indicate a fundamental change. It might be the start of a period with more frequent exercises at home at the expense of deployment abroad.

 

This will require a change in mentality. It could well turn out to have an influence on recruitment and our ability to attract qualified personnel.

We need to maintain a strong emphasis on how we recruit, develop and retain the right skills. I believe there is a broad political backing for the conscription as basis for our recruitment. And I am convinced that conscription for both men and women will give us a better defense. 

Equally we should continue balancing the number of conscripts with the number of enlisted personnel and officers. This is how we ensure both continuity and recruitment.

Today’s issue lies very much at the heart of an Army that wants to stay vigilant and responsive. At the same time it addresses maybe the biggest challenge for everyone involved in security and military planning.

A strategic outlook

It is difficult to make any clear predictions in an ambiguous and uncertain world. Likewise it is not given what possibly could be the next operation to be involved in.

I think we all would agree that these are very dramatic times in international relations. The ferocity of the civil war unfolding in Syria has led to a situation that causes grave concern. Again we are caught in a puzzle where predictions are difficult to make.

The agreement on removal of Syrian chemical weapons renders hope for a political solution. This is a significant advance for the diplomacy in what so far has been a deadlocked conflict. We very much anticipate further steps to be taken by the UN Security Council.

The situation in Syria fits well into the new security environment. It is characterized by failed states and the inherent irrationality and unpredictability of non-state actors and terrorists.

Furthermore, terrorism has grown from being largely a national and regional challenge into becoming a global threat.

At the same time, traditional security threats persist and conflict between states may again rise to become the most serious challenge to international peace and stability.

The security environment is further challenged by threats of cyber-attack, long distance weapon systems and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

“Strategic shocks” should not be discounted. Unexpected events may be caused by nature or be man-made. Nuclear accidents, breakdown of financial systems or pandemics are all part of this.

Maneuvering in such complex security landscape is not an easy task. As we choose to confront the unpredictable, there is always a risk that the situation differs from what we expected. History has more than once taught us that conflicts emerge and develop in an unexpected fashion. 

Afghanistan is a case in point. In 2002 and well in to 2003 when NATO assumed command over ISAF, there were about 5000 international troops mandated to secure Kabul and the surrounding areas.   

At that time, few if anyone would have predicted that NATO and ISAF would run a nationwide campaign consisting of more than 100 000 troops representing 50 nations.

Likewise we could not foresee the kind of the resistance and the resilience we would be confronted with. The use of IEDs and the targeting of civilians applied by the opposing military groups have challenged the very nature of warfare. It has required us to adapt and learn.

A second example close in time is Libya. If someone in 2010 told me that NATO was to conduct an operation in Northern Africa, it would be hard to take this person seriously. But the unpredictable happened due to a range of events that took place. 

Another thing that is worth mentioning is the limited time of this operation. After more than a decade in Afghanistan, we managed to start and end an operation in Libya in the same calendar year 2011. It is a long time since we would have been able to make a similar claim!

In some cases when rapid unexpected events occur, time does not allow us adapting. This is when the consequences can be most severe.    

For a country that suffered the horrific terrorist attack of July 22^nd 2011, we know too well the nature and damage of an unpredictable attack.

This was clearly an incident well beyond our imagination. As such we were not sufficiently prepared or organized to prevent this terrorist attack.

Predict and prepare for the unpredictable

Going beyond these three examples, the question come to my mind. Is there really any way you can prepare for the unpredictable? The short answer is – not fully.

The long answer is that this is a challenge we always must face up to. If we do not take on the burden of thinking ahead, thinking “out of the box”, we will merely continue what we currently are doing. This would obviously not be a prudent approach in preventing the unpredictable to take place.

Both in the theater and in our strategies we can prepare ourselves for a range of scenarios that may reduce the scope of unpredictable events taking place. This is what should characterize all sound defense and security policy nationally as well as in NATO.      

We need to apply lessons from recent unpredictable events. What did go wrong, where did we fail, how can increase our prepareredness? These are all questions we have scrutinized post July 22^nd. As a result a range of measures have or is being implemented. 

Our army has achieved a great deal of operational experience from Afghanistan. And NATO along with partners has made huge progress with regard to interoperability. One of the biggest challenges for each ally and NATO is to maintain these achievements post-2014. Capturing the knowledge gained form recent operations is therefore paramount. 

Norway lends great hope to the Connected Forces Initiative in NATO. We believe nations must be encouraged to exercise their forces together on a more regular basis.

Equally we as politicians should learn from recent operations. As such Afghanistan is a learning arena for the policy level.

No doubt, twelve years of experience in Afghanistan has taught us valuable lessons. I believe there is a shared understanding that the scope and the complexity of the tasks we embarked on in Afghanistan were seriously underestimated.

Today we know that security increasingly involves social, economic, political and cultural aspects. It goes far beyond its traditional military dimension. Yes, I believe we have become more sober when it comes to the effect of military power.

Conclusion

Ladies and gentlemen,

It is always a fear that when you look into the future, you risk putting too much emphasis on the past. It may well be that, seen from the perspective of history, Afghanistan or Libya will prove to be the exception. This is always a dilemma.

We cannot escape from a volatile security situation. And neither can we leave out the fact that is difficult predicting where, when and how a need for using military capabilities will arise.

As sudden events frequently are unpredictable, both in terms of nature and geographic location, the capability to contribute will be a key requirement for the Armed Forces. This implies that we must possess relevant and flexible capabilities with high readiness.

This is why the Norwegian Army is developed and modernized to fulfill such a task. 

I wish you all a successful summit.

Thank you for your attention!