Introduction by Jonas Gahr Støre to Al Gore’s presentation of “An Inconvenient Truth”,

Introduction by Jonas Gahr Støre, Minister of Foreign Affairs, to Al Gore’s presentation of “An Inconvenient Truth”, Kristiansand, 13 March 2007

Speaking points (slide show & introduction)
Unofficial translation from the Norwegian

• I would like to thank the chairman and the sponsors. But first of all, I will take the opportunity to “congratulate myself”, for it is not every day I have the pleasure of introducing the winner of an Academy Award (an Oscar).

• But of course, most of all I would like to congratulate former Vice-President Al Gore, not only on winning an Oscar — which is in itself a great achievement — but on an even greater achievement: how through his book An Inconvenient Truth and the film based on it, so convincingly has explained to us what will happen to the global climate unless we immediately change our way of life. Primarily I therefore wish to pay him tribute for his dedication to the environment as a role model, as a champion of the cause, as a communicator.

• The persuasive, clear language Mr Gore uses as the narrator of the film is very effective. Just listen: ”Humanity is sitting on a ticking time bomb. If the vast majority of the world's scientists are right, we have just ten years to avert a major catastrophe that could send our entire planet into a tail-spin of epic destruction involving extreme weather, floods, droughts, epidemics and killer heat waves beyond anything we have ever experienced”.

• Mr Gore has put this issue on the world’s agendas — the media’s agenda, decision-makers’ agendas, in Hollywood, in Washington D.C., in Brussels, in Oslo, in Kristiansand. I look forward to hearing him speak here.

• Two key documents: Mr Gore’s message does not consist of idle words or scaremongering. Both the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) latest report and the review produced by Sir Nicholas Stern, the former World Bank Chief Economist, which was commissioned by Tony Blair, point in the same direction.

• IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report, the summary of which was released on 2 February, removes all doubt as to whether anthropogenic climate change is taking place.

• Main findings of the IPCC’s report:
o Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
o Average Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were very likely higher than during any other 50-year period in the last 500 years.
o Warming of the climate system: Global average temperature is increasing. Eleven of the last 12 years (1995–2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850).
o The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas.
o Losses from the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica have very likely contributed to sea level rise from 1993 to 2003. The total 20th century rise is estimated to be 17 cm.
o Satellite data since 1978 show that annual average Arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7% per decade, with larger decreases in summer of 7.4% per decade.
o Future climate impacts: Further increase in global average temperature in the 21st century will in different scenarios be between 1.1 and 6.4 degrees Celsius, depending on future emission development.
o Sea level rise in the 21st century will in different emission scenarios range from 19 to 58 cm.
o It is very likely that heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent. Extra-tropical storm tracks are projected to move poleward, with consequent changes in wind, precipitation, and temperature patterns.
o Warming tends to reduce land and ocean uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide. This will result in a further temperature increase.

• The Stern review. The Stern review considers the social costs resulting from anthropogenic climate change, the costs of reducing climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the costs of adapting to climate change. Main conclusion:
o There is still time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, if we take strong action now.
o It will cost a lot less to reduce greenhouse gas emissions during the next few years than to do very little or nothing, because the cost resulting from climate change will be so high in the future, particularly for poor countries.
o But strong action is required. It will cost 1–2% of global GDP to reduce emissions now in order to prevent part of the climate change.
o On the other hand, if we do nothing, climate change could cost as much as 20% of global GDP by 2100.
o There are particularly two areas where strong, early action is required:
o It is necessary to implement market-based mechanisms to internalise the costs of greenhouse gas emissions. These include a number of measures like taxation of international air traffic and incorporating the environmental cost of transport in the prices of products.
o A dramatic increase is needed in the public support for research into ways of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

• Melting ice. Climate change is taking place here, in the north. The ACIA report (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment), which was published a few years ago, revealed that:
o Climate change is happening at a faster rate in the Arctic than in the rest of the world.
o Changes in the Arctic will affect the climate all over the world.
o According to the IPCC report, the temperature in the Arctic increased nearly twice as fast as the global average during the past 100 years. The snow and ice cover will continue to diminish in all scenarios. In some scenarios, the Arctic will be ice-free in the summer by the end of the 21st century.
o The temperature in the Arctic is increasing twice as fast as in the rest of the world.
o The polar ice cap is melting, and the snow cover has decreased by 10% over the last 30 years and may decrease by a further 20% by 2070.
o The permafrost boundary is expected to move northward by several hundred kilometres in the 21st century.
o The sea level is expected to rise by 10–90 cm in the 21st century.

• Changes in the north:
o New opportunities will arise in the areas of agriculture, shipping, fisheries, oil and gas.
o New transport routes will provide economic opportunities, but will increase pressure on the environment.
o Improved access to fish, oil and gas resources will open new opportunities, but will also increase pressure on the environment.
o These changes will also focus more political attention on the area.

• International measures. Greenhouse gas emissions in selected countries.
What can we do about this? National and international measures.

• The Government is taking climate change very seriously. If we are to succeed in limiting anthropogenic climate change, all countries must contribute by reducing emissions.

• The big challenge will be to reach agreement on a new international climate agreement for the period after 2010, when the Kyoto Protocol expires.

• Greenhouse gas emissions are a global problem. It can only be resolved through international cooperation.

• However, as a rich country and a major producer of oil and gas, Norway has a particular responsibility for developing environmental technology that can help to shift energy production and use in an environmentally friendly direction and provide emission control technology to poor countries. We must also facilitate a shift towards more environmentally friendly energy production and use in Norway as well.

• The countries marked grey on the slide are countries that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol, i.e. that have made concrete emission reduction commitments.

• However, the Kyoto countries only stand for 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

• This share is declining, due to rapid economic growth in countries like China, India and Brazil.

• This demonstrates how important it is that more countries are included in the next climate agreement.

• National measures:
o This spring the Government will present a white paper on sectoral climate action plans. The mail purpose is to identify measures that lead to cost-effective reductions of emissions in the various sectors and that are not being carried out under existing measures. The Government will on this basis define concrete targets and measures for each sector.
o A considerable number of national climate measures have already been implemented. The Government has decided to implement the following measures:
o CO2 capture and storage: New licences for gas-fired power plants will require CO2 capture and storage. The agreement on CO2 capture and storage at the planned Mongstad power plant together with the NOK 860 million allocation for research and development of CO2 capture and storage in the 2007 government budget will be important for Norway’s future greenhouse gas emissions. These efforts will give Norway a leading position in the development of CO2 capture and storage technology. This is environmentally friendly technology that will benefit other countries as well.
o Renewable energy and energy efficiency: We have reinforced our efforts as regards renewable energy. A fund for the promotion of energy efficiency measures and the use of renewable energy was established at the beginning of 2007 and will be important in ensuring that CO2 emissions from energy production and use in Norway are maintained at a low level.
o A tax on the use of gas for heating will be introduced from 1 July this year.
o We have introduced stricter requirements for energy efficiency in new and renovated buildings. We aim to reduce energy use in new housing by 25%.
o The transport sector: The Government has increased investments in the railways. The aim is to transfer more goods and passenger traffic from road to rail. The restructuring of the taxation system for cars that was started in the government budget for 2007 is important in promoting the use of cars with lower CO2 emissions.

• Norway has ambitious goals as regards CO2 capture and storage: Last year we initiated an ambitious research, development and demonstration project at Mongstad. The goal is to build the world’s first full-scale CO2 capture and storage facility. It will be operative in 2014.

• The Mongstad project involves cooperation between the Government and Statoil. The Prime Minister has called it “Norway’s moon landing”. We hope that just as the original moon landing led to major technological advances in the US, the construction of a full-scale CO2 capture and storage facility will accelerate Norway’s transition to a low-emission society.

• Our long-term goal is to establish a cost-effective value chain for transport and injection of CO2. This will both reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance oil recovery. See the map/figure from Sargas AS, a Norwegian company that is developing CO2 capture and storage technology.

• But our vision goes beyond this: We believe that the Mongstad project will encourage international technological cooperation. This is essential if we are to achieve coordinated, broad-based action to deal with climate change. International cooperation will make it possible to share the risks as well as the rewards and technology. In addition, this will make it possible to coordinate different countries’ priorities.