The Influence of COP15 on the Development of the Arctic

(1. Arctic climate change and COP15)

Slide 1

 

Mr Chairman, Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen,

 

Today, climate change is the greatest challenge for the Arctic environment and the daily lives of Arctic peoples. I am therefore grateful to be given the opportunity to address this issue here at this conference.

 

Slide 2

 

We now know that climate change is taking place more rapidly and more visibly in the Arctic than in most other areas. The Arctic ice also seems to be melting at a faster rate than before. This directly affects some four million people who live in the Arctic. But it also affects many more hundreds of million people in other parts of the world through increased global warming and rising sea levels.

 

Because the changes are taking place so rapidly and are so visible, this has become an important topic in the public and political debate.

 

Slide 3

Long-term conservation of the Arctic will only be possible if we reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases to sustainable levels. That was what we hoped would be the outcome of COP15 in Copenhagen last December.

 

To be brief, the influence of COP15 on the development of the Arctic will be slight, at least in the short run. It did not give us the legally binding treaty needed to combat climate change and to save the Arctic as we know it today.

 

However, the work continues and most states agreed on principles and a direction – the Copenhagen Accord, which we hope will pave the way to such an agreement at COP16 in Mexico later this year.

 

Not everything was negative in Copenhagen. The Accord acknowledges the scientific view that limiting the increase in global temperature to 2 degrees is necessary to prevent the worst effects of climate change. Developed countries will commit themselves to quantified economy-wide emissions targets from 2020, to be listed in the Accord before the end of this month.

 

Developed countries also agreed to support the goal of jointly mobilising USD 100 billion a year by 2020 to address the needs of developing countries. The urgent need to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation was recognised. Important progress was achieved in these areas in Copenhagen.

 

Slide 4  

Let me also add that Norway was very pleased by the attention given to melting snow and ice at the side event by former US Vice President and Nobel Peace Prize winner Al Gore and the Norwegian and Danish Ministers of Foreign Affairs. Snow and ice are melting to an extent far beyond normal seasonal changes. There is a need for urgent action, and action on short-lived climate forcers will have to play an important part.

 

For the Arctic cooperation, the lack of a binding agreement at COP15 means that our work on climate change must continue with the same high priority:

·       We need solid scientific documentation about Arctic climate change and its impacts.

·       We must discuss as a matter of urgency actions that will make a real difference in the near future.

·       And we must discuss how to deal with the consequences of a warmer Arctic climate. In spite of all the measures being implemented to combat climate change, we will still have to deal with changes in the Arctic.

 

(2. The need for knowledge)

 

Slide 5

Our need for knowledge about Arctic warming is stronger than ever. The 2004 “Arctic Climate Impact Assessment” from the Arctic Council was a groundbreaking report on  Arctic climate change and its dramatic consequences.

 

A new major project was launched during the Norwegian chairmanship of the Arctic Council to examine three key aspects of climate change in the Arctic: the retreat of the sea ice, the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and the reduction of permafrost and snow cover. These are all trends that will have huge global impacts in terms of global warming and rising sea levels.

 

We need to know in order create stronger political pressure, and we need to know to adapt. The final report will be submitted to the Arctic Council Ministerial Meeting in 2011, and will provide input to the next assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

 

Example fisheries

In addition to such broad-based knowledge development, we will also need to strengthen our efforts within the various sectors.

 

As for the oceans, climate change affects sea temperature, sea level, acidification and currents, and may also generate more extreme weather. The oceans’ ecosystems and biological diversity could change dramatically.  These changes could have severe consequences for various industries. For instance if we look at the fisheries we must expect:

•        changes in migration patterns of commercial stocks;

•        the introduction of new species;

•        diseases that could affect the aquaculture industry.

 

Likewise, climate change could create a demand for new technology along the coast to resist extreme weather.

 

Slide 6

(3. Measures for immediate effect – short-lived climate forcers )

Mr Chairman,

Even if we get the global treaty on climate change that we need, the reduction in global warming will not be fast enough to maintain the polar environment as we know it today. Because carbon dioxide remains for so long in the atmosphere, ice melting is already too rapid to stop with cuts in CO2 alone.

If we are to have any chance of slowing today’s rapid melting, we urgently need to focus on the reduction of short-lived climate forcers such as methane, which is covered by the Kyoto Protocol, as well as emissions of substances not currently covered by any climate agreement such as black carbon and ozone. Researchers indicate that these common pollutants have contributed almost as much to the temperature rise in the Arctic over the past century as CO2emissions.

 

Given that these pollutants are short-lived and the technology to remove them is cheap and already available, reductions would have a rapid effect that could enable regions of ice and snow to survive long enough for CO2 reductions to have an impact.

 

A task force on short-lived climate forcers of climate change was established by the ministers of foreign affairs at the Arctic Council Ministerial here in Tromsø in April last year. This task force is to identify existing and new measures to reduce emissions of these pollutants and recommend immediate actions.

 

I look forward to the outcome of their work. As politicians we have a duty not only to pay close attention to this issue, but also to act quickly on the basis of the precautionary principle. This is a vital task for us all.

Measures to combat short-lived forcers will have to be considered both under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and under European and global conventions on transboundary pollution. Initiatives to reduce emissions of methane should be explored as quickly as possible, for example through a targeted enabling mechanism or global fund.

Norway was one of the initiators of this work in the Arctic Council. We are co-chairing the Arctic Council task force on short-lived climate forcers together with the US, and we are now considering how to coordinate our work within the relevant international bodies.

Slide 7

4.    (Increased access to the Arctic – need for policy)

 

In spite of all the measures that have been implemented to combat climate change, we will still have to deal with a changing Arctic.

 

The Arctic, and especially the Arctic Ocean, has always been remote and inaccessible. This is now about to change due to the dramatic reduction of the sea ice during the summer.

Slide 8

 

The Arctic Council is already addressing the new challenges facing the Arctic. The work is far from completed, but we have initiated projects on many of the emerging activities in the Arctic. Let me briefly mention some important elements.

First, a comprehensive study on oil and gas activities has been finalised with a number of important recommendations. Recently revised guidelines for oil and gas exploration in the Arctic define procedures and minimum standards.

Second, several projects have been launched to address maritime safety in the Arctic. Of particular importance here is the Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment. The Arctic states have agreed to cooperate actively within the IMO on establishing guidelines for ships operating in ice-covered waters, and on the development of mandatory international regulations on safety and environmental protection in Arctic waters. This is a matter of urgency.

Third, the Arctic Council recently finalised a report that sets out agreed requirements for ecosystem-based ocean management, including living marine resources. An integrated approach is required when new activities emerge.

Fourth – and finally – we have agreed to strengthen cooperation on search and rescue in the Arctic, by establishing a task force to develop and negotiate an international instrument on cooperation in this area. The work is well underway chaired by the US and Russia, and I look forward to the outcome.

My list could have been longer. The Arctic Council deals with a broad range of issues, including climate change, pollution, biodiversity, protection of the marine environment, and emergency response. I have only mentioned a few highlights.

 

5.     (Concluding remarks)

 

Ladies and gentlemen,

 

The future of the Arctic will affect us all. We are in this Arctic effort together. Our challenges are of a transboundary nature – but so are our opportunities. Thus, they need to be addressed through dedicated international cooperation.

 

Slide 9

In 2011, we will celebrate the 150th anniversary of the birth of Fridtjof Nansen, Norwegian explorer and Nobel Peace Prize laureate. When Nansen set out to cross the then uncharted Greenland ice sheet in 1888, he started from the unpopulated, hostile east coast with only one way to go – forward. Determined to reach his goal, he made sure that retreat was no alternative.

I am not asking you to burn your boats, bridges or other means of retreat. But let all of us bring together our political will, move forward together, and do what is necessary to meet the challenges and preserve the Arctic for present and future generations.

 

Thank you.