Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group 1

Check against delivery

• Thank you very much for inviting me to hold this opening speech. We are proud to have the IPCC meet in Norway. The IPCC is the world’s main point of reference in the area of climate change. Your comprehensive and objective assessments are of crucial importance for our understanding of human-induced global climate change, including its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.
• As a representative from the political community, it is difficult to underestimate how important the work of the IPCC is for us as policy makers. Science and research input constitutes a key component in policy making and in the development of international climate regimes. Much of the success of the IPCC has to do with this close science-policy interaction, where the scientific independence and integrity of participating scientists has been – and must continue to be- maintained.
• Even if policymakers are a main target group for the IPCC, its findings reach a much larger community including researchers, students, business and industry, NGOs and journalists. Through all these groups, the IPCC becomes a very important provider of information to the public at large.
• The 17.000 comments that you have received on the present draft to the Fourth Assessment Report says something about the enormous interest in the science of climate change and the important work of the IPCC in particular. Many groups and stakeholders are interested in what you will be doing at this meeting. This is a good thing- even if it will probably give you little time to enjoy Bergen.

Political response

• As a politician, it is to me quite clear that we have so far not been able to respond to the knowledge provided by the scientific community through the IPCC with adequate political decisions or measures. I strongly hope that the Fourth Assessment Report will provide new scientific input that will stimulate the negotiations on a stronger climate regime for the period after 2012.
• The scientific assessments done under Working Group I are especially important in providing information on the forcing agents that cause climate change and the response of the climate system to these changes. It is crucial for policy makers to understand the human influence on today’s climate and what the future climate could possibly be.
• One of the big challenges facing you as experts is to communicate the scientific findings with the appropriate level of precision. In particular for policymakers, it is important to get a consistent picture of the levels of certainty and confidence attached to the scientific findings. We would, of course, like to see that uncertainty levels are decreasing and confidence levels are increasing. But I also think that policymakers should not have unrealistic expectations. It is our responsibility to act based on the best available information, even if there are prevailing uncertainties: This is the core idea of the precautionary principle. Unfortunately, one cannot say that we always live up to this responsibility.
• A well known problem in politics is that there is a tendency to focus on near- or medium-term problems and solutions. Climate change represents a type of challenge that also requires a much more long-term perspective. The Norwegian Government recently decided to adopt as an aim a 2 degrees Celsius maximum limit for global temperature increase, as the EU has done earlier. We think it is necessary to have a long-term guidance for the global climate cooperation in order to avoid totally unacceptable consequences of human induced climate change. One can always discuss whether a maximum limit of 2 degrees Celsius is too weak or too ambitious, but this was the best choice we could make for now based on the present knowledge.

Arctic challenges

• Since you are in Norway, I would also like to mention that Norway as an Arctic nation faces particular challenges due to climate change in our most northern regions. The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) from 2004 was initiated by the Arctic Council because of concerns about how climate change will affect the Arctic area. The follow-up of ACIA will be one of our main priorities during Norway’s forthcoming chairmanship in the Arctic Council.
• The findings in the ACIA report are alarming. Significant climate change is taking place now. The Artic ice is melting. The effects of climate change are already seen in the Arctic and we know that the changes in the Arctic have implications for the global climate. I assume that the assessment of research on climate change in the Arctic through the ACIA process has been a valuable contribution to the work on the Fourth Assessment Report.

Closing remarks on the IPCC and the challenges ahead

• The IPCC is a unique institution in the international environmental arena. It has developed a natural authority of delivering clear scientific messages. The consensus principle is a strength of the IPCC, but it also presents particular challenges to your work. In consensus processes, there is sometimes a tendency to emphasize the most cautious views, also known as “the last ship in the convoy”. In my view, the IPCC has been successful in weighting and presenting differing views without watering down its messages. I think it is vital that there is a continued emphasis on providing as clear messages as possible based on best available scientific knowledge.
• To ensure that the information is properly understood, it is also important that IPCC delivers reports that are well written in clear and precise (or may I say simple) language. In that way, the risk of misunderstandings or biased interpretations is reduced.
• IPCCs First Assessment Report from 1990 was an important eye-opener which led to the UN Framework Conventions on Climate Change in 1992. The Second Assessment Report from 1995 laid the foundation for concrete commitments to reduce emissions under the Kyoto Protocol.
• My expectation is that the Fourth Assessment Report will be of major importance for key political decisions that will have to be made during the next few years. Information from this report will feed into political processes that have recently been established under both the Climate Convention and the Kyoto Protocol. The international community faces great challenges in defining the further steps in a global climate regime beyond 2012. I’m convinced that the IPCC, as it has done in the past, will play a crucial role in assisting policymakers like me to take the right decisions.
• I therefore wish you all the best in your endeavour at this meeting and look forward to seeing the final results of your work next year.