Scientific findings and the need for global emission reduction target

It is imperative that an agreement in Copenhagen is guided by a long term goal which responds to the actual challenges we are facing according to scientific findings by the IPCC. Such a target should be established early in the process, before the discussions on distribution of efforts between countries and sectors take place.

A shared vision should include both midterm and long-term emission reduction targets, either related to maximum increase in the global mean temperature, or to specific levels of atmospheric concentrations of green house gases. It is essential that short-term and midterm targets are transformed into international obligations for the Parties ensuring that we reach those goals that the global community agrees upon.

A two degree target
It is Norway’s view that the increase in global mean temperature should not exceed 2 degrees in order to avoid the most serious damage to the climate. According to the IPCC, this means that global emissions have to be reduced by 50-85 percent from 2000 to 2050, most likely as much as 85 percent, and to peak no later than 2015.

Efforts between countries and sectors
To achieve a two degree scenario, developed countries as a group must reduce their emissions by 25-40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020. In addition to these efforts, emissions in developing countries have, in accordance to the IPCC, to substantially deviate from projected baseline emissions within next few decades, being interpreted to be in the range of 15-30 percent.

Efforts by developing countries should be supported and enabled by technology and substantial financial support and capacity-building from developed countries in a reliable and predictable manner, and in accordance with the national circumstances and capability of the receiving countries.

The recently published IEA report tells us that we are on a path towards pushing up global emissions to a level that will increase average global temperature by as much as 6 degrees Celsius in the long term. Without effective actions on reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries and development and implementation of emission reduction technologies such as Carbon Capture and Storage, there is no way we will be able to achieve emission reductions at a scale necessary to avoid dangerous climate change.

A shared vision should thus include the recognition of the need for a strengthen framework for technology transfer and development. A framework that distinguish between measures to accelerate implementation of best technologies currently available and actions to scale up research, development and deployment of new technologies.  

Moving towards a low carbon economy
The right to economic growth and poverty eradication is fundamental for developing countries. Hence a shared vision has to combine the overall need for emission reductions, with the need for economic growth in an environmentally sustainable manner. A shared vision must thus elaborate on the establishment of the necessary incentives for turning the global economy into a low carbon economy, seeking to establish a global price on all greenhouse gas emissions.

Adaptation
The impacts from climate change will be most severely felt by poor countries. The need to establishment essential mechanisms to finance adaptation, including new innovative ones that are predictable and independent of annual national budget decisions, should be reflected in a shared vision. A shared vision should further guide us to mainstream adaptation into all relevant decision-making processes, across all sectors at all levels, taking into account in particular the needs of the poorest and the most vulnerable countries.