Speech Kirstenbosch Institute

Minister van Schalkwyk, Ladies and Gentlemen,

We are at the start of the rainy season, and the Zambezi River is rising. It has already reached the six-metre level. Just a metre and a half below the level it reached in 2000, when the flood displaced half a million people.
The Zambezi has been flooding more frequently in recent years. And we fear it is a result of climate change.

Climate change and poverty are the two biggest challenges the world is facing.
More than 40% of the people in sub-Saharan Africa live in poverty. And because of climate change they face tremendous challenges:
* 250 million Africans are at risk of water stress.
* Famine and the spread of infectious diseases are likely to increase.
* Reductions in agricultural productivity could be as much as 50% in some countries by 2020.
* Marine, forest and mountain ecosystems are in danger of collapsing.

Let me give you an example:
The ice cap on Mount Kilimanjaro could disappear by 2020 - for the first time in 11 000 years. The loss of the water from the melting ice during the growing season will seriously impact agriculture in the region.

In his review on the economics of climate change, Sir Nicholas Stern states that all countries will be affected by climate change.

But the most vulnerable – the poorest countries and peoples – will be affected earliest and most. Those who have contributed least to the causes of climate change, will suffer most.

Many African countries lack the resources to deal with these problems. To adapt to the consequences. And to continue economic development in a climate friendly way.
Norway is already actively involved in funding environmental programmes and projects in Africa. We have decided to step up development assistance considerably in support of environmental programmes in 2008 to a total of about 400 million US dollars.

It is the rich world that has created the problems of climate change. And it is the rich world that must shoulder the main responsibility for solving them.

It is easy to be paralysed by the overwhelming global threats to our way of life. But we must not lose our faith in the human capacity for change, and our common capacity for action.

Climate change is man made, and it can be solved by man.

A month ago the world agreed on a “road map” in Bali. This roadmap is an important step forward.
Now we must get started on negotiating a new agreement, to be finalised in Copenhagen in 2009. A new and more ambitious agreement – with more countries participating.

The industrial countries must lead the way. By cutting emissions in our own countries. And by financing mitigation and adaptation in the developing world.
We have to create new financial mechanisms to ensure the transfer of capital from rich countries to poorer countries.

The agreement at Bali to launch the Adaptation Fund, will soon make it possible to finance concrete projects. Developing countries will benefit from this. The fund will be financed by 2% of the certified emissions reductions under the Clean Development Mechanism. This means that the adaptation fund will grow as more CDM projects are implemented.

Carbon trading creates incentives to reduce emissions. It stimulates investments. And it stimulates the transfer of funds and technology from rich countries to poor countries. By means of a single measure, we can thus address two challenges: climate change and poverty.

Deforestation should be included in the post-Kyoto agreement. In Bali we agreed on indicative guidelines for demonstration activities to prevent deforestation. This is an important step towards incorporating deforestation into future carbon trading instruments.

If we succeed in including forest, the opportunities could be significant. Not least for African countries through emission trading and CDM projects.

In Bali, I announced that Norway is prepared to increase its support for efforts to prevent deforestation in developing countries to around 500 million US dollars – a year. Some of these funds will be used in Africa. By saving the rain forest, we can achieve large cuts in greenhouse gas emissions quickly and at low cost.
Norway will do its utmost to reduce emissions, both at home and abroad.
Firstly we will overfulfill our national Kyoto commitment by 10%. And we have already started to do so.

This is important. Early reductions matter more than reductions later.
Secondly we will reduce global emissions by the equivalent of 30% of our own emissions by 2020.

And finally we are ready to become carbon neutral by 2030 as part of an ambitious agreement, where other industrial countries make substantial commitments. 
Being a large oil and gas producer, Norway wishes to contribute to the development of carbon capture and storage technology. By implementing this technology we can reduce emissions from power generation and large industrial sites significantly.
According to some estimates, the release of CO2 from these sectors and deforestation alone, accounts for almost half of total emissions. Therefore forest and carbon capture is key to solve the climate problem.

South Africa is a strategic partner, alongside other African countries.
South Africa played a constructive role at Bali. Thanks to your active involvement, it was possible to seal agreement on the establishment of the new Adaptation Fund.
The rest of Africa and the world will be looking to South Africa to provide leadership in the efforts to combat climate change. Not only because South Africa accounts for 40% of African emissions, but because of its economic strength and international stature.

I hope to return to this beautiful country later this year. I am looking forward to a dialogue on the issue of climate change and your country’s role in the process leading up to the Copenhagen Conference in 2009.

I also hope that we can identify potential fields for cooperation, for example carbon capture and storage, the development of projects under the Clean Development Mechanism and combating deforestation.

I am leaving for Antarctica tonight. The melting of the polar ice is a strong signal that climate is changing. A joint Norwegian-US expedition is currently crossing the Antarctic continent on its way to the South Pole. It will provide new knowledge on climate change and its global implications.

Knowledge is a key driver for action. The Kirstenbosch Institute is an important part of the scientific community providing us with this knowledge. I am grateful to you and the other organisers who have made this event possible at such short notice.

Thank you.