Outline of economic developments and fiscal policy
Historical archive
Published under: Solberg's Government
Publisher: Ministry of Finance
Press release | No: 13/2018 | Date: 15/05/2018
In order to ensure simultaneous access to potentially market sensitive information The Ministry of Finance here unveils selected key figures prior to the budget release, which takes place at 10:45. A table with more detailed projections will be released together with the budget.
In the 2018 Revised National Budget growth in mainland Norway is projected to be 2.5 per cent this year and 2.6 per cent next year, unchanged from the forecasts given in the 2018 National Budget. This is above the historic trend, and capacity utilisation will increase and remain close to normal levels next year. The labour market has improved faster than projected.
The Revised National Budget for 2018 upholds the neutral fiscal policy stance from the adopted 2018 budget, which was approved by Parliament in December. Spending of petroleum revenues is now estimated to NOK 225.5 billion in 2018, as measured by the structural, non-oil deficit. This is NOK 5.6 billion lower than forecasted in the adopted budget. The structural budget deficit is at the same time adjusted down for 2017, and the estimated fiscal impulse is thereby still less than 0.1 per cent of trend GDP for mainland Norway.
The petroleum revenue spending is estimated to 2.7 per cent of the capital of the Government Pension Fund Global by the beginning of 2018, revised down from 2.9 per cent in the adopted budget. The revision should be read in the light of a substantial rise in the Funds market value by the end of last year.
Table: Selected key figures in the Revised National Budget 2018
|
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
|||
|
|
|
RNB 20181 |
NB182 |
RNB 2018 |
NB18 |
|
Real gross domestic product (mainland Norway)3 |
1,8 |
2,5 |
2,5 |
2,6 |
2,6 |
|
Employement, persons3 |
1,1 |
1,3 |
1,1 |
1,1 |
1,1 |
|
Unemployment rate (LFS) |
4,2 |
3,8 |
4,0 |
3,7 |
3,8 |
|
Structural, non-oil deficit, billion NOK (constant 2018 NOK) |
219,2 |
225,5 |
231,1 |
- |
- |
|
Fiscal impulse4 |
0,2 |
0,1 |
0,1 |
- |
- |
|
Spending of petroleum revenues5 |
2,8 |
2,7 |
2,9 |
|
|
1) 2018 Revised National Budget.
2) 2018 National Budget.
3) Change from previous year in percent.
4) Structural, non-oil budget deficit measured in percent of trend GDP for mainland Norway. Change from previous year in percentage points.
5) Structural, non-oil budget deficit measured in per cent of the capital in the Government Pension Fund Global at the beginning of the year.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Ministry of Finance.