Robust growth in the Norwegian economy
Historical archive
Published under: Solberg's Government
Publisher: Ministry of Finance
Press release | No: 10/2019 | Date: 19/03/2019
The Norwegian economy is in a cyclical upturn. Employment is increasing and unemployment is in decline. In the material to the government’s conference on the 2020 budget, growth in the mainland economy is forecasted to be above trend both this and next year.
Growth in the mainland economy has picked up gradually over the past years. Activity is increasing both across the country and across industries, and firms expect further improvement going forward. Investment in mainland businesses has increased significantly and has not been higher in ten years.
Employment is increasing across the country, and the employment rate is on the rise. Both the LFS- and the registered unemployment have fallen for the past three years. Registered unemployment is now well below its average for the past 20 years, and was in February at its lowest level in ten years. LFS-unemployment has also come down from its peak in the winter of 2016 and is expected to continue declining.
International economic growth has been high, but the economic upturn is abating and growth has dropped in several countries. This may eventually translate into lower demand for Norwegian goods and services. On the other hand, cost cuts in the petroleum industry contribute to good profitability and high activity on the Norwegian continental shelf.
Higher purchasing power among Norwegian households and increased activity in the petroleum industry, both domestically and internationally, are expected to contribute to continued upturn in the Norwegian economy. Additionally, improved cost competitiveness for Norwegian businesses has laid the foundation for increased exports and investment.
The table below shows The Ministry of Finance’s forecast to The Government’s March Conference on the 2020 budget.
Table 1 Key figures for the Norwegian economy
Percentage volume change from previous year, unless otherwise stated
|
|
Bill. NOK1 |
|
Projections |
|
|
|
2018 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
|
Private consumption |
1 532,9 |
2,0 |
2,4 |
2,8 |
|
Public consumption |
830,6 |
1,5 |
1,5 |
.. |
|
Gross fixed investment |
849,3 |
0,9 |
5,2 |
1,0 |
|
Of which: Petroleum extraction and pipeline transportation |
154,1 |
3,3 |
12,9 |
-3,6 |
|
Business sector Mainland Norway |
309,3 |
1,8 |
6,7 |
3,8 |
|
Housing |
192,3 |
-6,0 |
0,9 |
0,8 |
|
Public sector |
192,1 |
6,6 |
0,7 |
.. |
|
Demand from Mainland-Norway2 |
3 057,2 |
1,6 |
2,4 |
2,1 |
|
Exports |
1 347,5 |
-0,8 |
1,7 |
7,1 |
|
Of which: Crude oil and natural gas |
570,0 |
-4,8 |
-3,3 |
11,9 |
|
Goods from Mainland-Norway |
413,3 |
2,5 |
5,2 |
5,3 |
|
Services from Mainland-Norway |
235,7 |
1,5 |
5,2 |
7,0 |
|
Imports |
1 151,1 |
0,9 |
3,8 |
2,1 |
|
Gross domestic product |
3 537,1 |
1,4 |
2,0 |
3,4 |
|
Of which: Mainland-Norway |
2 908,0 |
2,2 |
2,7 |
2,5 |
|
Other key figures: |
|
|
|
|
|
Employment, persons |
|
1,5 |
1,4 |
0,8 |
|
Unemployment rate, LFS (level) |
|
3,8 |
3,7 |
3,6 |
|
Unemployment, registered (level)3 |
|
2,5 |
2,2 |
2,2 |
|
GDP growth among trading partners4 |
|
2,4 |
1,9 |
1,9 |
1 Preliminary national accounts in current prices
2 Excluding inventory changes.
3 Measured as percent of the LFS labor force.
4 Norway’s 25 most important trading partners weighted by respective shares of Norwegian exports excluding oil and gas.
Sources: Statistics Norway, OECD, Eurostat, Norwegian Labor and Welfare Administration, Reuters and Ministry of Finance.