Bridging a fragmented world – the view from Norway

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Thank you, Anita,

I am delighted to be back at Global Outlook, here in Arendal. 

Almost 130 years ago, on a summer day like this one, at “Våje” farm – which is not too far from here – a local girl took lunch to her father. A farmer, who was ploughing the fields.

The girl noticed a silver ring that had got stuck on the plough. 

She had, in fact, stumbled upon a treasure from the Viking Age.

It was composed of silver bangles and coins, from different places in today’s Russia, Usbekistan, Iran and Afghanistan. 

The silver fragments created a bridge to a distant past, with vast connections to the outside world.

Today, they are on display at Arendal’s Kuben museum. As minister of culture, I was proud to take the decision to build the museum’s new building, which contains this interesting exhibition.

So, you can take my word for it: Kuben’s many treasures are worth a visit.

Not least the silver fragments from “Våje Store”.

We know now that the Viking age was a time of cultural and commercial expansion. A time of huge changes. 

We live in a period of change as well.

We have seen decades of increasing interconnectedness and steady economic growth in many parts of the world. 

Now, however, the future direction seems uncertain.

We can get the sense that many countries are turning inward, rather than opening up.

Or, as you have described it – that the world is more fragmented.

Key players in the international system are deeply suspicious of each other.

There are different views on what the future world order will and should look like.

This uncertainty is, in itself, destabilising.

Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine has added to our sense of unpredictability.

We sometimes forget that wars of conquest used to be a principal
means of conducting foreign policy.

Between 1816 and 1945, a state disappeared, on average, every three years.

But this changed after the Second World War.

In the entire post-war era, the world was largely free of such wars of conquest. 

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine broke that norm.

It had been more than 30 years – with the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait – since one country had tried to outright conquer another internationally recognized foreign nation. To remove another country from the map.

Russia’s war has brought back the menace of nuclear weapons.

Its consequences have worsened the negative economic spiral we saw under covid-19.

It has revealed vulnerabilities in global supply chains. 

It comes on top of an already high number of unresolved conflicts and accelerating climate change.

All of this has reversed decades of development progress. Millions have been forced to flee their homes.

360 million people worldwide need humanitarian assistance — up 30 per cent since the start of last year alone.

These challenges are interconnected. They compound each other.

Norway has a small and open economy. Further polarization is not in our interest. 

How do we best navigate in this landscape? 

FIRSTLY We must prevent a return to protectionism

In a time of increased strategic competition, we must protect critical infrastructure and screen foreign investments.

China’s rise is part of that picture, but this is true for all countries and regions. De-risking strategic value chains is important for our security.

My point is that those efforts need to be based on a threat analysis. Some areas need to be closely fenced in. Such as critical infrastructure. 

Others do not. If we use security as a pretext for protectionism, we all stand to lose.

According to the EU's climate monitoring service, the planet just had its hottest June on record.

This summer, new heat records were also set in the Arctic. For the first time, the average monthly temperature on Svalbard in July was recorded at above 10°C.  

Nowhere else in the world is experiencing such a rapid rise in temperatures as Svalbard.  This has dramatic implications, not only in the Arctic, but for the entire world.

All this to say: The green transition is not a choice. It is an imperative.

Which is simply not possible without investments, cooperation and trade. 

Global trade, regulated through an international, predictable framework.

That is how we reduce uncertainty.

Trade in global merchandise actually hit record levels in 2022.

In other words, we are still very much interconnected.

According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, total trade between the United States and China reached an all-time high last year. 24 percent higher than in 2019.

Global trade in gross figures does not reflect the growing geopolitical rivalry. Yet.

The Director General of the World Trade Organization is a very strong economist from Nigeria. As she recently put it: We need not de-globalize. We must re-globalize. 

Focusing on deeper and more diversified global supply chains. 

I agree with her. Everyone stands to lose from trade wars. This includes the United States and China.

In Arendal, we certainly know how international trade is especially important for a small country like Norway. 

SECONDLY. We must bridge the transition from fossil fuels to renewables

Sometimes, healthy competition means that you end up on the losing end – especially if you can’t keep up with the pace of innovation.

This city knows a thing or two about that. The Viking treasure at Våje was found during a period of deep economic crisis for Arendal.

The declining demand for sailing ships due to the development of steamers was part of that story.

Today, new technologies hold huge potential to improve people’s lives. And to make the green transition possible. Green shipping has a huge potential here in Norway.

Arendal is today the home to some of Norway’s most innovative companies and research centers.

Like Gard, who is involved in insuring an incredible 50 percent of the global merchant fleet. 

Like the Eyde cluster, who play a pivotal role in the development of Norway’s national battery industry.

The world needs both more energy and more renewable energy. These are reinforcing goals. And last year, investments in renewable energy systems by far exceeded investments in the petroleum industry.

In their quest for energy, the very last thing states want is to be at the mercy of unpredictable, authoritarian leaders.

Norway has become Europe’s most important energy producer. 

We are doing our part to ensure stability of supply, while at the same time, reshaping our energy system.

In short: more secure, smarter and greener.

Not long ago, the International Energy Agency revised their forecast for renewable capacity additions in the EU for this and next year. 

They revised it upwards by 40 percent compared with before the war in Ukraine. 40 percent! Only a few years back, such a rapid increase seemed impossible.

This clearly shows how Russia’s aggression has increased the pace of the green transition in Europe. And that we should not underestimate the speed of change. 

THIRDLY We must build global trust

The war has also highlighted this: a clear majority of states agree that their interests are best served by respect for:

• Sovereignty
• territorial integrity
• and the peaceful resolution of disputes.

In other words: by the principles enshrined in the UN Charter.

Still, many lower- and middle-income countries voice frustration with an international order built while they were under colonial rule.

And where their influence often does not reflect their demographic size.

We need – and should call for - a minimum of strategic understanding between the US and China. If not, the global system will remain unpredictable.

And we need to do a better job at ensuring that the institutions we do have, work for all.

Finding common solutions is difficult. But it can be done. 

Following intense negotiations over several years, agreement was reached this spring on a High Seas Treaty. It will pave the way for closer cooperation to improve ocean health.

And a few months ago, a Group of Governmental Experts on nuclear disarmament verification – chaired by a Norwegian diplomat – agreed on important elements for verification. Verification is very important. Because only through verification can we trust the arms control regimes that we need to protect.

So. Even in this tense security policy context, it was possible to find convergence on nuclear disarmament issues.

These two wins show that working across regional and geopolitical dividing lines produces results. 

MY FOURTH AND FINAL POINT:  We must invest in dialogue and development

An important principle of Norwegian foreign policy is that we speak with everyone. 

It would, in a sense, be an easy way out to refuse to engage with those that we disagree strongly with.

While it would be easy, I am convinced that it would not be very efficient.

As Foreign Minister, it would probably mean that I would have less and less counterparts to talk to.

To me, defending freedom of expression by boycotting dialogue is a contradiction in terms.

Norway will continue to stand up for democracy, human rights and gender equality. We will call out those who abuse power. 

The uncertainty about the future of the international order I described earlier also impacts global conflict patterns.

In more and more conflicts, regional powers compete for influence.

This outside involvement contributes to fueling and prolonging conflicts.

According to the International Rescue Committee, wars now last on average twice as long as they did 20 years ago. And four times longer than they did during the Cold War.

Protracted conflicts are not easier to solve. They are much harder to solve.

The most important thing we can do to end and prevent humanitarian suffering… is to end and prevent conflicts.

That’s why Norway will continue to invest in mediation and conflict resolution.

Friends, 

I started with a Viking treasure.

Here in Southern Norway, there is another treasure hidden in the ground: minerals that can play a critical role in achieving the green transition. 

Two months ago, we pledged to develop the world’s most sustainable mineral industry.

Part of what makes it interesting to live precisely in this period of history, is that solving the big challenges of our time is actually possible.

But only if we reap the best from natural resources, science, technology, and international cooperation. 

And make use of the best and brightest minds – like the ones who will succeed me on this stage.

Thank you.