Minister of Labour and Government Administration Eldbjørg Løwer

Opening Speech for the 18th of June AAD Conference:

The Use of Future Studies in Public Management Reform

Conference Hall - Government Building R4 Oslo

Ladies and Gentlemen,

I am delighted to wish you welcome to our conference “The Use of Future Studies in Public Management Reform”. I am particularly happy to wish our international guests welcome – persons with an extensive experience in the creation of social, cultural and political imaginations about our future. This conference will also function as the start-up and initiator of our inter-ministerial project « Norway 2030» – a vision for the public sector more than thirty years ahead.

More than 30 years ago Bob Dylan’s words went through the world: “The times they are a’changing” - six words which meant a lot to a whole generation. For sure, the times they are a’changing – not only then, but – I would say – to an even greater degree today. The big challenge of our time is to cope with this change in an effective and adequate manner.

The title of this conference – “The Use of Future Studies in Public Management Reform” – expresses a vision and a will by the Norwegian Government to use untraditional means to identify possible future challenges for the public sector in Norway. ‘Untraditional’? you may ask! Most of the participants in this audience presumably look at Prospective Studies and Scenario-methodology as necessary and fruitful tools to handle a world which seems to grow more and more complex, unpredictable and global. Nevertheless scenario methodology probably seems strange and “non-scientific” to a great number of academics.

The Norwegian Government does not share this scepticism and is convinced that scenarios for possible futures are important steps towards the restructuring and renewal of the public sector. Abroad governmentally initiated Future Projects are already a contemporary trend, and - I am convinced – will continue to be so in the future too. The speakers at this conference testify to that. They represent both finished and ongoing projects in collaboration with transnational organisations or national policy-makers – projects which are trying to envisage a great variety of possible futures and possibilities. The Norwegian Government considers the process of developing mental pictures of possible futures as an important enterprise in Public Management Reform. Let us try to develop a vision of the public sector in the new millennium. This is indeed an ambitious intention, but do we have any other choice? I think not!

For decades the Norwegian Society has been marked by changes which it would have been impossible to anticipate through linear prognoses. Unexpected situations threatened our way of thinking and challenged politics, science and economics. The pace of change is getting increasingly rapid, and changes are characterised by an enormous complexity which embeds the Norwegian Society in the global Community in a new and unknown way. There are a lot of signs today telling us that we are only seeing the contours of a society in which the ability of flexibility, innovation, creativity and new forms of co-operation between the civil society and the public and private sectors, will be of great importance for the well-being of our society.

A transformation from an oil-based economy to a land-based economic structure will entail the need for changes that will demand considerably more efforts from the public sector in Norway. What would be the thinkable consequences of this, not only for the national economy, but for the public sector as a service instrument for the citizens? Should we involve ourselves in the “eternal” chain of challenges which the Norwegian Society after the oil age will offer – at a time when it would seem as though we all will be busy enough dealing with everyday problems in our national environment and daily ministerial work? One of the titles here today is “Future Studies – Why on Earth?”. Yes – why on earth should we spend time, resources and energy dealing with phenomena which do not yet exist, which seem diffuse, out of control, uncertain and sometimes threatening? These are only a few of many questions to be discussed today and tomorrow.

The Norwegian Government is convinced that Norway needs a large and effective public sector to secure equal services and welfare all over the country. Both the economy and the citizens of the local municipalities in Norway are dependent on a well-functioning state and local authorities. In the political platform of the Government (“Voksenåsen”-declaration) – we point out five important objectives:

• we have to focus on the users and develop measurable standards of quality for the services
• we have to modernise the public sector and make it more effective and efficient
• we have to secure a sound economy for the local municipalities as a basis for effective processes of change
• we have to make arrangements that give employees a feeling of job security
• we must stimulate co-operation between the third sector (civil society) and the municipalities

In order to achieve these objectives the Norwegian Government finds it important to stimulate interministerial co-operation with regard to possible ways of organising the public sector. « Norway 2030» is a governmentally initiated future study whose main objective is to incite civil servants to think in a more long-term perspective than they normally do.

« Norway 2030» has four key themes:

1. Global Development – External Factors
2. Economic Adaptability
3. Values, Culture and Social Behaviour
4. Social Organisation and Democratic Challenges

As an introduction to this project I am happy to present international speakers who have a great experience in carrying out governmentally initiated future projects. I am delighted to welcome all of you to this conference and some of you to a workshop which addresses the visions for the public management into the next millennium.

Thank you