Energy market outlook

Thank you Madame Chair – for your kind introduction. Thanks also to you Mr. Tanaka for inviting me to animate this session.

An African proverb says: “If you want to go far, walk together. If you want to go fast, walk alone.”

Current energy trends are unsustainable. So we need to go far. And we need to go fast. And clearly we need to do it together.

Together, the countries represented in this room consume nearly three quarters of the world’s energy. Together, we emit more than three quarters of energy related CO2. Based on these facts it is very welcome that we have our friends from China, India and Russia present to discuss the crucial energy issues we are facing. Together, we may make a difference.

In this session we will focus our discussion on the Energy Market. And we are faced with an intriguing dilemma. Historically the IEA has been concerned with, lacking investment, secure supply of energy, predominantly oil, and affordable energy to consumers.

In the morning session today, I took notice on Mr Tanaka’s words about energy prices. He concluded: “The age of cheap energy is over”. This change of focus – from the fear of low energy prices and to the need for high prices – seems to me to possibly have profound effects for the focus and the messages the IEA brings to the world. In my mind, Mr. Tanaka’s words raise a crucial question for us as Ministers: Do we share the perspective that the era of cheap energy is over – to supply markets with secure energy and at the same time provide incentives to promote clean energy?

Madam Chair, a key question is how Energy Markets may help us to bridge affordable, secure supply of energy and sustainable energy. I hope this session might bring us closer to an answer and I would further suggest that we focus our discussion on three topics:

1. Lessons learned from Energy Markets over the last years – what can we learn from each other?
2. What are the challenges ahead of us – do we have the same understanding?, and
3. How can the IEA help us?

Dear Madam Chair, I hope you may use these questions to guide the debate.

When giving my concluding thoughts I would like to go back to the questions we started with.

First, what lessons have we learnt from the from Energy Markets over the last years?

Second what are the challenges ahead of us?

A third question we have discussed is what role the IEA can play. We know the IEA as the authoritative source on energy information and analysis. The IEA must maintain its role as the key provider of objective energy facts and insights. We need this to inform policy makers, industry and the general public. If the IEA is successful in this respect the Agency will remain relevant for member countries and non-member countries alike.

As ministers, probably the most important role we can play in the near future to reduce uncertainty, is contributing to an agreement in Copenhagen. The agreement should reduce the uncertainty for the industry and pave the way for a well functioning carbon market.