Beyond the boiling point: Is dialogue a viable tool in Afghanistan?

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Dear friends,

Afghanistan is a country with many societies involved in dialogue. The traditional way of solving problems is to call a shura or a jirga, composed of respected representatives, to solve problems. Being able to voice problems and concerns is highly valued.

No government in Afghanistan can succeed if stakeholders, including traditional leaders, do not consider themselves consulted and included.

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Should we talk to the Taliban?

Well, the Afghan Government is already talking to those who are ready to respect democratic principles and who are not guilty of war crimes, through a peace and reconciliation commission. A number of former Taliban officials have been cleared, and some are in the parliament and in official positions, even as governors. 

It is important to remember that the Taliban is a diverse and amorphous movement, and that also other groups such as Hezb-I-Islami Hekmatyar are part of the picture. The Taliban is made up of poor youths, disaffected tribal groups, professional commanders, as well as a hard core leadership outside the country.

I do not think that dialogue or negotiations can achieve much if they focus on the hard core leadership. Their views and demands, as well as the blood on their hands, do not leave much room for flexibility.

But it will be for the Afghan leadership to decide if and when there is room to negotiate with networks outside the country.

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In general, I think it is important to remember that if we want people we see as extremists or hard-liners to choose the political path, we need to keep the political channels open.

Because we do need dialogue in Afghanistan. Tribal and local leaders must be consulted by the Government. They must feel that their security and other concerns are paid attention to.

Bad governance will make them vulnerable to Taliban pressure. If local societies and tribal groups feel left out, their leaders may be tempted to pledge their loyalty to the Taliban or to other spoilers to strengthen their self respect and position locally.

We must face this challenge with a broad and comprehensive strategy. We need different platforms for dialogues that include potential change agents such as traditional leaders.

The existing reconciliation programme must be strengthened, and the Afghan Government needs a countrywide outreach programme.

The ties between the central elected bodies and administrative institutions in Kabul and the provinces on the one hand, and the local and tribal structures across the country on the other must be strengthened.

Religious leaders play a crucial role. In order to reach out to the rural population, a better dialogue built on a genuine desire to develop mutual respect and understanding with religious leaders is required.

I firmly believe that in order to establish a successful dialogue, every effort by the international community must reflect respect for Afghan religious and cultural values.

There are initiatives to strengthen the dialogue between the Afghan Government, the ulema and local religious leaders.

A lot hinges on this dialogue, as any regime in Afghanistan must be seen as a legitimate protector of Islamic values. Better religious education will also be an important factor in the longer term. This is of course an area in which we as outsiders do not have and should not have a role.

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Perception can sometimes be as important as reality. Success stories do not often make the headline news, but the Afghan Government and the international community clearly need to step up efforts to communicate effectively with the population through the media.

Lately we have seen an encouraging trend, where the President and ministers increasingly travel to the provinces and engage directly with the population. 

Successful dialogue, aimed at creating the conditions for peace can not be achieved in a vacuum, or with disregard for ground realities.

There is a Persian saying: “Two hundred words are less than one deed.”  In order to create the conditions for dialogue with those who are currently opposing, or sceptical to, the Government in Kabul, we must also show that we are willing to do the right things. 

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I will just mention a few areas that I am sure will be vital to create the conditions for dialogue.

Firstly, basic security for life and property is the most fundamental expectation of the population vis-à-vis their Government and the international security presence.

Unless justice and respect for the rule of law are established, the population will turn to our adversaries for justice and security.

Therefore we must demonstrate continued readiness to pre-empt and respond to a range of challenges from the Taliban and other extremist groups by maintaining a robust ISAF presence, while working to hand over responsibility to the Afghan security forces. Constant efforts to minimise civilian casualties are of critical importance to avoid undermining the legitimacy of our involvement.

Secondly, competence- and capacity-building is urgently required to create competent institutions and enable the Government to govern.

Dialogue, outreach and reconciliation will only have long-term effects if the Afghan Government is able to project permanent authority and deliver services through honest and competent institutions.

And we should aim to reduce the dependence on foreign expertise and instead build Afghan competence and capacity. We must do the right things, and we must do them right.

Thirdly, Afghanistan’s location at the crossroads between Asia, the Middle East and Europe has contributed to its rich culture, but also to repeated suffering.

Stability requires engaging Afghanistan’s neighbours. Having to fight insurgents who can retreat across the border to Pakistan has greatly complicated efforts to combat terrorist movements.

A constructive dialogue with the Government of Pakistan and – to the extend possible – with other stakeholders and change agents is of critical importance in order to weaken and hopefully dismantle insurgency networks and deny insurgents access to any kind of safe haven.

To reach those key actors in the border areas – both in a literal and metaphoric sense – key religious and traditional leaders need to be met with honest respect. Bridge-building networks of such leaders need to be included in dialogues with appropriate, and to the extent possible coordinated, representatives of the west.

We should also engage Afghanistan’s other neighbours.

All regional powers must be made to realise that moderation and transparency are required, and that rivalry and exploitation of Afghanistan’s tragic situation will not be tolerated and does not serve anybody’s long-term interests.

They must be made to see that a stable and economically viable Afghanistan will benefit the entire region, and that prolonged conflict will continue to tear the region apart.

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To sum up:

Dialogue is a viable tool.

We must reinforce the dialogue with former Taliban members who are ready to rejoin civilian society.

Tribal leaders must be consulted and feel included, and the Afghan Government must reach out to the population. 

Religious values and leaders must be included. 

But actions speak louder than words – we must do the right things. We must help build peace in practice, not only talk about it.

The international community can help promote security, and political, economic and social development in a process owned by the Afghans in such a way that it strengthens the allegiance and loyalty of the people to the elected government and removes the basis for support of the Taliban. 

And last but not least – Afghanistan’s neighbours must be engaged in a constructive and practical dialogue about security and the long-term economic opportunities for all.

Dear friends,

Today’s session will look at the advisability and feasibility of engaging with the Taliban or elements of this movement, as an alternative or complement to the military campaign. To help us do this, we are fortunate to have four very competent panellists: Christopher Alexander, Ahmed Rashid, Shyam Saran and Francesc Vendrell. They will speak, in that order, for 10 minutes each, before I open the floor for discussion.

Mr Alexander, the floor is yours.