The 6th Informal Nordic-African Foreign Ministers Meeting: the issue of climate change

The 6th Informal Nordic-African Foreign Ministers Meeting
Oslo, 19–20 March 2007

Minister of Foreign Affairs Jonas Gahr Støre

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Dear colleagues,

In the Arctic, climate change will have dramatic consequences. Land and sea ice will melt, changing wildlife and vegetation. Extreme weather will put extraordinary stress on infrastructure and man-made facilities, and the economic foundations of local communities may diminish.

These are some of the ten key findings of the ACIA study, and they are compelling. From a northern perspective it is clear that they describe the challenges and the urgency of the situation well.

It is equally clear that compared with other continents, Africa will face the most severe challenges. Thus, although they hardly contribute to the climate problem themselves, Africans are forced to adapt to climate changes that are affecting them today and that will continue to affect them severely due to widespread poverty, dependence on natural resources, and its development deficit.

We now know that even if we manage to limit a future rise in global temperatures to 2° Celsius, Africa will suffer. Studies estimate Africa’s potential economic losses to be in the order of more than a hundred billion dollars, more than ten million people will face famine as a result of more frequent droughts, and more than twenty million people will become refugees from floods. These estimates are even more dramatic for scenarios where the temperature increase is above 2° Celsius.

A major challenge for African countries is that the very aspects of African societies that make them vulnerable to climate change and necessitate adaptation, also complicate the adaptation process. Therefore, Africa needs development, technology, and increased capacity to handle the future challenges.

Nevertheless, the most important message of the ACIA film and the IPCC report is the global nature of the climate issue. We are in fact all in the same boat. As was pointed out, the Greenland icecap contains enough water to raise sea levels by seven meters.

A one-meter increase will put 40% of Bangladesh under water. I can only imagine what seven meters would do. Increased temperatures can potentially alter ocean currents and will have profound impacts on economic activities. Globally speaking, Sir Nicholas Stern has estimated that the cost of inaction to climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP each year. In his worst scenario the loss is estimated at 20% of global GDP. Africa will suffer hardest under these changes, but they will require action from everyone.

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So what, from our point of view, should be done?

Countries with emission reduction commitments under the Kyoto Protocol are responsible for less than one-third of all greenhouse gases emissions. Even if these countries reduced their emissions to zero, dangerous climate change would not be avoided. Scientists agree that world emissions must at least be halved by 2050.

It is clear that all large emitters, both developing and developed countries, must pull together to reduce/limit emissions in a global regime after 2012. Such a regime must be much broader and deeper than what we now have. We need new and binding targets for all on a much lower emissions level than today.

EU is leading the way and we must follow suit. An important dialogue is going on between the G8 countries and the largest developing countries, but so far without concrete results.

But we have a dilemma. We, the rich countries of the North, carry the historical responsibility for the climate changes we are witnessing. Something needs to be done about their production and consumption patterns. But the largest growth in emissions is in the South, and in a few years’ time China will pass the USA as the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases.

Therefore, the developing countries, particularly the largest emitters among them, must also limit their emissions if we are to stand any chance of succeeding in our endeavour. But how can we achieve that without at the same time denying these countries their historical right to development? Because one thing must be clear: the developing countries’ right to develop cannot be questioned.

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I think the solution to this challenge must contain some of these elements:

We need the extensive use of ‘carrots’ – voluntary/flexible commitments with positive incentives for developing countries to ensure that they come on board in an ambitious new climate regime after 2012.

We must encourage development that is much less energy-intensive than was the case in the North. The question of sustainable development is inseparably tied to the development of clean and reliable energy sources.

Many African countries are heavily dependent on fossil fuel. In South Africa, for example, coal-based power plants are widespread. The world will be dependent on fossil fuels for many decades. The International Energy Agency predicts that in a business-as-usual scenario global energy demand will rise by 60% between now and 2030, and most of this (90%) will be covered by fossil fuels.

As a result, CO2 emissions are expected to increase by 55%. Thus, business as usual will not do, and we, the developed countries, must contribute heavily to capacity-building in the energy sector in developing countries. This in addition to serious domestic action.

We must support vulnerability assessments and adaptation measures in the developing countries.

And we must contribute to capacity-building on the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) in Africa. It is potentially an important channel for development, foreign investment and the transfer of environmentally sound technology and knowledge.

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However, the mechanism has so far been of little use to Africa. This is why UNEP and UNDP launched the Nairobi Framework in November last year, and why Norway is seriously considering supporting this initiative.

Capacity-building will, however, not be enough to ensure foreign investment in CDM projects in Africa. As the CDM is a market-based mechanism, investors assess risks before they invest, and Africa is often considered a high-risk investment environment. This illustrates the need to create a strong link between development aid and climate issues. It also clearly illustrates the need for African countries to increase efforts to create attractive investment environments for CDM projects.

Thank you.