Konferanse – 10 år i Afghanistan – hva nå?

 Punkter til statssekretær Eides innlegg under Afghanistan-konferansen i Oslo 29. september 2011.

Sjekkes mot framføring

 

1.     Introduction

• After 10 years of international military presence in Afghanistan, we have entered  a new phase. The process of handing over security responsibility to the Afghan security forces has begun. In the years to come, the international military presence will gradually be scaled down. And, as the Afghans gradually take over the responsibility for their own security, Norway will also start withdrawing our own troops.
• As we enter this transition phase, we should take a critical look at the efforts of the international community over the past 10 years in Afghanistan. Important achievements have been made, but there have also been challenges, and there are a number of valuable lessons to be learned.
• In today’s conference I will encourage reflection and discussions based on the experience of the last 10 years in Afghanistan.
• I look forward to hearing Michael Keating’s views on our future responsibility in Afghanistan.
• However, I would like to stress that there is a question mark in the title of my speech here today – “what now?” For it is important that the lessons learned from the last 10 years are used when we shape the policy for our future engagement. At the end of my opening remarks I will therefore focus on what we can do to support a stable Afghanistan after 2014.

2.      Lessons learned

• Some analysts describe the efforts of the international society in Afghanistan as a failure. I disagree with this analysis, but there are several important lessons to be learned. These experiences should be brought into the discussions about our future engagement.
• I will today present six concrete lessons learned, as seen from my perspective. These six are certainly not a comprehensive list of lessons learned in Afghanistan, but they represent a small step towards trying to learn from the past 10 years.
• First, in my view, the most important lesson is that the international community focused too much on the military efforts, which meant that the political framework was pushed into the background. 
  o   The conditions for the political process were set in Bonn 10 years ago. The Taliban were then excluded from the negotiation table.
  o   Norway stated early on that the conflict must be solved by a political process. Now, the focus must be on finding a political solution.
• Second, the importance of the regional actors. We underestimated the importance of the regional actors. Neighbouring countries must take greater responsibility for stability in Afghanistan. Pakistan, in particular, has an important role to play in helping to stabilise Afghanistan.
• Third, Afghanistan is a country with many disputes and conflicts, and some of them do not involve us. We underestimated how the complexity of Afghan society made it possible for the Taliban to strengthen their power. And we underestimated the difficulties associated with using military means in such an environment. We can assist in building democratic institutions. We can strengthen the ability of politicians to implement decisions. We can contribute to economic and social improvement.  These factors can help to prevent internal conflicts. It is, however, the Afghans who must solve their internal disputes and conflicts. We cannot fight another people’s war.
• Fourth, the importance of planning for the long term, not using quick fixes. Stabilising a country like Afghanistan with its myriad power structures and ethnical linkages is not achieved through quick solutions. The focus has to be shifted to the longer term.
• Fifth, both the Afghan Government and the international community must fight harder to combat corruption. At the same time, we realise that the international community must take its part of the responsibility. The enormous amount of money poured into the Afghan economy with a focus on rapid expenditure has unfortunately not always been helpful to ending the culture of corruption in the Afghan bureaucracy.
• And finally, another important lesson, obvious as it might seem, is that the Afghans must take the lead. We must be frank and admit that international donors did not coordinate well enough among themselves or align their assistance with Afghan priorities. Overlapping activities and weak Afghan ownership have not helped the Afghan Government to govern effectively. Norway has stressed the need for an “Afghanisation” of international aid, and we already channel 50% of our assistance through public channels.

3.      Afghanistan today:

• The security situation in Afghanistan is difficult. This is illustrated by the serious security threats that have arisen over the last few weeks. The assassination of former president Rabbani is the latest sad example.
• Unfortunately, the internal power struggle is still primarily fought by using violence rather than political processes.
• At the same time, we do see that the Afghan security forces are gradually improving their ability to handle complex operations. We see that years of training and gradual increased responsibility for the Afghan security forces have produced results. So while we are worried about increased violence in Kabul, as well as other places, we should not forget that the security situation in other parts of the country has improved significantly. This is also the case in areas where the Afghan security forces have already taken over responsibility.
• It is also important to keep in mind that support for the Afghan security forces is only one of many keys to a stable Afghanistan. Just as important is support for the Government’s efforts to govern its own country.
• At the same time we must state clearly our expectations to the Government of Afghanistan. It has to take greater responsibility. Measures must be taken to improve the effective governance of all parts of Afghanistan.
• This process must include women and all ethnic and political groups. Lasting stability in Afghanistan can only be achieved through an inclusive process. We do realise that this is a process that will take time and that is taking a lot of the Government’s time and resources. The assassination of Rabbani shows how difficult this process is. We must be patient.

4.      Results achieved

• Now, I would like to focus on some of the important results that Afghanistan has achieved together with its international partners.
• It is important to remember why we started. The international community became engaged in Afghanistan on the basis of a Security Council resolution, to prevent the country from being a base for Al Qaida and other terror organisations. This goal has more or less been achieved. Afghanistan is no longer a safe haven for international terrorist organisations.
• 10 years ago, Afghanistan was a war-torn, impoverished country. Today Afghanistan has elected a president, a government and a parliament. Challenges still remain,, but the structure of a modern state is in place.
• There has been significant progress in the areas of infrastructure and education, and Afghanistan has achieved strong economic growth in the years since 2001.
• The country’s infrastructure was largely destroyed after three decades of war. But in the last years, over 10 000 kilometers of road have been improved, and the important ring road has been completed in large parts of the country.    
• In education: while less than 1 million children attended school in 2001, that number is now over 7 million, including many girls.
• There has also been much progress in higher education. One example: Recently more than 1000 students graduated from a vocational school supported by Norway. They have been trained in administrative skills like accounting and IT, and will start working in both the private and public sectors, where they will provide the skills needed for Afghanistan to develop further.

5.      Moving forward to 2014 and beyond

• Based on results and lessons learned: “How can we assist to ensure a stable Afghanistan after 2014?”
• The immediate focus is now on enabling the Afghans to ensure peace and stability in Afghanistan after 2014.
• Together with the Afghans and our other allies, we have started the process of handing over the responsibility for security to the Afghan security forces. Although there are still obstacles ahead, this process is on track and will continue as planned.
• We have learned that we cannot focus on the security sector alone. Thus in the next year the focus must be on finding a political solution and on long-term development.
• The architecture for the future security set-up is in place. We must engage in dialogue with Afghanistan on civilian support and the civilian presence after 2014.
• The Bonn conference in December will focus on civilian aspects of the transition. Although 2014 is still some years ahead, I am glad to see strong Afghan leadership in this debate. We must start the discussions now to make sure that we agree on the structure for international assistance to Afghanistan post 2014.
• One of Norway’s concrete contributions is providing support for Afghanistan’s effort to engage the neighbouring countries in a debate on the regional dimension of a stable Afghanistan. Without the active engagement of its neighbours, a stable Afghanistan seems a long way ahead. We are providing technical and practical support for the process leading up to Istanbul.
• Developments in Pakistan give reason for concern. We encourage Pakistan to play a constructive role in the stabilisation of Afghanistan.
• Norway has pledged NOK 750 million annually and will provide this sum until 2012. We are prepared to continue our support for Afghanistan after 2012, but the level of assistance has not yet been decided. We have initiated an evaluation of our assistance to Afghanistan over the last 10 years. This evaluation will provide important input on our future assistance. However, it is primarily the signals from the Afghan Government that will direct our development assistance to Afghanistan.
  

6. Conclusion

• In conclusion: we have experienced been 10 challenging years in Afghanistan. Especially for the Norwegian troops and their families. We are grateful and proud of the efforts they have made to support a stable development of Afghanistan. And I would like to take this opportunity, on behalf of the Norwegian Government, to thank the Norwegian men and women who have served in Afghanistan. 
• In the years to come, Afghanistan will gradually take over the responsibility for its own security. We will phase out our troops, but remain a partner and friend of Afghanistan.
• We must be realistic as we look to the future. Afghanistan in 2014 will still be a poor country facing several major challenges, including some in the security sector. But the transition process has started and it will be concluded by 2014.
• This is the wish of the Afghans. President Karzai has repeatedly stated that the responsibility for governing and securing Afghanistan lies with the Afghan Government.
• I look forward to hearing other speakers’ input today. I encourage the audience to ask critical questions, but also to follow up by making concrete proposals. The main focus today must be on the future and how we can support the stabilisation of Afghanistan.