Conference on “The Political Economy of Transitions – Analysis for Change”

 

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The subject of today’s conference – “the political economy of transitions” – is timely. I congratulate UNDP Oslo Governance Centre and NOREF on this important initiative. 

During the last years, we have witnessed the power of popular uprisings in bringing about democratic change. In country after country, people have risked their lives in a call for free elections, democratic accountability, the rule of law and respect for human rights.

We have been inspired by the courage and strength of the people of Egypt, of Tunisia, of Libya, of Syria and of other countries in that region – and beyond. The recent democratic wave has not been restricted to the Arab world.

Around the world, people are showing that the desire for human rights and democratic values is not something that has been imposed by the West. It is rather the contrary: a reflection of the legitimate aspirations of people who have been taking to the streets with similar demands – for dignity, social justice, freedom and respect for human rights.

Another example of democratic change is Myanmar – which differs from the Arab spring in being more of a top–down process. Changes in Myanmar have to a large extent been initiated by its political leaders. It is a fast evolution – rather than a revolution.

Democracy seems in other words to be on the rise in today’s world. But let us not get too carried away. Because the rhetoric of democracy is advancing faster than its practice.

There are countries that advertise their democratic form of government, while at the same time undermine and curtail the activities of civil society and human rights defenders. There are countries that hold elections one day, and then put their citizens in jail because of their beliefs the next day.

Democratic change has to be sustained over time – often in societies that lack basic democratic traditions and institutions. Therefore, what can be seen as fundamental prerequisites for true and sustained democratic change?

First, democracy and human rights are inseparable. Democracy is not sustainable unless the basic rights of individuals are respected, nor can you have true protection of human rights without democracy. And even more important in a transition phase: democracy does not end at majority rule. The real test of a successful democracy is its ability to protect and respect the rights of minorities.

Respect for basic individual rights places limits on the laws, policies and practices that can be pursued by a government, and that can be pursued by the majority in a society. In a transition phase this is vital because the building of broadly based trust is a key to making democratic change sustainable.

Second, robust democracies can never be imposed from the outside. A true democracy must have local ownership – and international support must be based on local demand, interest and commitment. If not, outside help will do more harm than good. Why? 

Because establishing robust democracies is not a technical exercise. It is not about holding an election. It is about fundamental change – over time – relating to both society and culture. Basic human rights and democratic principles are universal, but true democracies have to develop within the social contexts they are to reflect.

Third, democratic change takes time. It is not a process that can be rushed, because the values of democracy must take hold in society. The World Bank has estimated that it takes an average of 41 years for countries to successfully establish the rule of law, which is necessary for a functioning democracy to take hold.

We must take a long-term perspective, both with regard to democratic development and to our support for it. However, long term perspectives and patience are as important as they are politically demanding to see through.  Short-term results and benefits of change are also needed – not least politically – in order to inject commitment and trust in the overall process of transition. 

When transitions occur, people will always be impatient to see evidence of change. Therefore, the management of expectations is a critical political factor in transition processes. Which leads me to a fourth and related point.

Transition to democracy and change will always be fiercely opposed by some. Democratic transition means that previously powerful elites lose some of their influence. Naturally, they will try to hold on to their privileges. Military elites can be reluctant to submit to a civil administration. Conservative religious elites can be reluctant to allow the inclusion of women or religious minorities in politics. Old economic elites will be challenged on key economic issues like land and property rights.

So – how can we outsiders best be of help?

Introducing democracy does not mean westernisation of society. Democracies can take many forms. At the same time there are universal and basic human rights that are basic – and fundamental. 

How do we – Norway – target our support in transition processes? 

1. We try to convey a consistent message in our public and political statements.
2. We give moral and material support to human rights defenders and democratic agents of change at the local level.
3. We demand that women are included and minorities respected. You cannot expect a democratic process if more than half the population is excluded.
4. We support transparency – in many forms.
5. We support the rule of law. A democracy will fail unless the population has a minimum level of trust in the fairness of the state institutions.
6. We support economic growth.  Inclusive development – benefiting all levels of society – is paramount if democracy is to take root.
7. And we support the building of human capital. Education is key. Democracy depends on a critical number of people in a society being in a position to take their fair share of power. This requires economic strength and social capital, but also the knowledge base and the intellectual confidence that is provided through education.

 

These are important elements for us – for Norway – in our support to transition processes. You will today focus on the transitions of Myanmar, Egypt and Tunisia, looking at the lessons from the transitions that took place in Brazil, Chile and Indonesia. 

I find this approach very promising, and I am looking forward to the results of your discussions.

Summing up: The international community can play a positive role in easing difficult transitions. But as I have stressed, a real and clear understanding of the role of the outside world during transitions is needed. There are always important global, international and regional factors, but in the end a transition process has to be locally based in order to end successfully.

And key local/internal factors are the ability to manage expectations, the ability to build broadly based trust and the ability to respect minority rights and vulnerable groups – which in essence is the real test of a successful democracy. Because as Mahatma Gandhi once said: “My notion of democracy is that under it, the weakest should have the same opportunity as the strongest.” I wish you all a successful conference. Thank you.