Norway’s interests in the High North

Norway’s future is inextricably linked to the future of the Arctic. The polar ice cap is receding, and access to energy resources, minerals and shipping lanes in the region is gradually opening up. Norway is at the heart of this development. Our security depends on peaceful coexistence between the polar nations in the northern hemisphere. And sustainable management of the Arctic’s natural resources can fuel economic growth and create jobs across the country. But most importantly, we have to tackle the grave environmental consequences of climate change in the High North.

Rapid change in the Arctic
We are facing serious environmental challenges in the Arctic. The temperature here has risen at twice the rate of the global mean over the last decades, and the region is on average two degrees warmer than it was 100 years ago. The area covered by ice in summer has shrunk by one third compared to the average for the period 1979-2000, and new estimates indicate that, in just a few years, the region could be virtually ice-free in the warmest months. 

But the rapid impacts of climate change we are seeing in the High North have other consequences too. A new industrial age in the region is on the horizon. First, a new energy region is emerging. The US Geological Survey has reported that the Arctic is home to 22 % of the world’s undiscovered petroleum resources, and 72 of 86 blocks opened for exploration in the current 22nd Norwegian licensing round are located in the Barents Sea. Energy resources in the Arctic will be a pillar of European energy security in the future.

Second, the geological region known as the Fennoscandian Shield, which consists of the northern parts of Norway, Sweden, Finland and western Russia, is home to rich deposits of minerals that can be further explored. And third, the Northern Sea Route cuts the sailing distance from Yokohama to Rotterdam by 40 % compared to the route through the Suez Canal. Last year around 40 ships sailed through the Northern Sea Route, and Russian authorities expect that this figure will increase to around 600 by 2020.

However, a note of caution is needed here. It should be remembered that at present as many as 18 000 ships sail through the Suez Canal annually. And there are still significant obstacles need to be addressed before the Northern Sea Route can be commercially viable, such as extremely tough weather conditions, darkness, ice, and significant challenges regarding search and rescue.

Developmental dilemmas
While we clearly see the potential of the Arctic, we also face dilemmas, but not insurmountable barriers. Increased shipping through the Northern Sea Route promises economic benefits, but accidents in the Arctic Ocean could have serious negative consequences not least on the environment. Shipping must therefore be subject to the highest safety and environmental standards, and Norway supports the development of a mandatory Polar Code under the International Maritime Organization.  

Petroleum production in the vulnerable Arctic environment raises serious questions. Oil and gas activities involve an inherent risk of accidents. An oil spill could have a devastating effect on marine life in this region. The Norwegian Government has therefore insisted that oil and gas activities in the Arctic must be weighed against the interests of other industries within the framework of integrated, ecosystem-based management. And we enforce among the most stringent safety and environmental standards for oil and gas activities in the world.

Producing more petroleum is a dilemma in itself. The message from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is clear: if we are to limit global warming to 2° Celsius, we must accelerate the transition to low carbon economies. But the world needs energy, and a significant proportion of energy production will continue to be carbon-based for at least the next few decades. Introducing unilateral restrictions on petroleum production in Norway would at best only have a limited effect. At worst a decrease in the supply of natural gas could lead to increased consumption of coal. Norway will therefore continue to give the highest priority to efforts to reach a comprehensive global climate agreement.

Furthermore, we can and must reduce the carbon footprint from the production and use of fossil fuels. Norway is committed to making carbon capture and storage (CCS) a realistic option in the future. Another case in point is gas flaring, which is prohibited on the Norwegian continental shelf. Restricting gas flaring in the Arctic is particularly important. Emissions of short-lived climate drivers such as black carbon, methane and tropospheric ozone contribute considerably to the warming of the Arctic. Furthermore, when black carbon (soot) covers snow and ice, melting is accelerated. The prohibition of gas flaring has also fostered innovative and cleaner technological solutions.     

Knowledge is key
Norway is in a good position not only to seize the opportunities but also to shoulder the responsibilities associated with the rapid changes taking place in the High North. We have extensive experience and expertise in sound management of petroleum production and fish stocks in northern waters, and we can build on a centuries-long history of making sea travel safe.

However, to unlock the full potential of the Arctic, more knowledge is needed. New research will enable us to fully understand the challenges ahead and help us to make the right decisions. The High North Research Centre for Climate and the Environment (Fram Centre), which was opened in 2010, is made up of 19 member institutions. A new polar research programme was established in 2011 under the auspices of the Norwegian Research Council. And a new research centre on challenges related to petroleum activities in the Arctic will also be created. These and other activities will help Norway sustain its position at the forefront of research on a range of topics related to the Arctic climate, resources and environment.

Cooperation and peaceful coexistence
The Arctic is not a legal void or a political vacuum. The Law of the Sea forms the legal basis for all activities in the Arctic Ocean – as it does in all oceans and seas of the world. Existing international law provides a predictable framework for addressing present and foreseeable challenges in the Arctic.

In the Ilulissat Declaration (28 May 2008) the five coastal states bordering the Arctic Ocean – Norway, Russia, Canada, Denmark (Greenland) and the United States – confirmed their continued commitment to the legal framework in the Arctic Ocean and to the orderly settlement of possible overlapping claims. The 2010 Treaty Concerning Maritime Delimitation and Cooperation in the Barents Sea and the Arctic Ocean between Norway and the Russian Federation is a prime example of the practical application of the principles set out in the existing legal framework. This agreement was a true milestone because unresolved maritime boundaries can be particularly difficult for states to resolve.

Furthermore, inter-governmental cooperation on the most pressing issues facing the region has been developed, not least through the Arctic Council. The Arctic Council was originally founded in 1996, but has only held meetings at a high political level over the last few years. Anticipating increased shipping traffic, a legally binding inter-governmental agreement on search and rescue (SAR) was concluded in 2011. In addition, the Arctic Council has established a task force to develop an international instrument on Arctic marine pollution preparedness and response. The decision in 2011 to establish a permanent secretariat, located in Tromsø, will further strengthen the Council’s capacity to respond to the challenges and opportunities in the region.

Other forms of inter-state cooperation will also be needed as the Arctic region is developed. An ecosystem- and science-based approach to sustainable marine resource management requires regional cooperation. The Barents Sea is home to some of the world’s most abundant fish resources, such as the northeast Arctic cod. The fisheries in the Barents Sea are managed successfully by Norway and Russia in close bilateral cooperation, in which the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission plays a key role. The North-East Atlantic Fisheries Commission (NEAFC) and our bilateral cooperation with the EU, Iceland and the Faroe Islands are also important in this regard.

People-to-people contact in the region should continue to be encouraged. The Barents Cooperation has created significant cultural interchange, and commercial ties across the borders have increased. A testament to the success in fostering cross-border contact is the increase in the number of people passing through the Norwegian-Russian border. From 1990 to 2011 this figure rose from 8000 to 200 000. 

A challenging but promising future
Realising the potential of the Arctic will not be easy. The dilemmas related to increased economic activity in the High North must be carefully thought through, and the states in the region must continue to be cognisant of their legal and moral obligations. But we are on the right path. Petroleum and marine resources in the High North will help provide a foundation for our future prosperity, and we remain determined to preserve the unique Arctic environment. Finally, let us remember that the legal and political frameworks needed to maintain the Arctic as a region of peaceful coexistence based on international law are already in place.

Jonas Gahr Støre
Oslo, September 2012 (*)

(*) The issue was launched on 11 December 2012, see Tvergastein Journal