Part 1
Background – climate change and its consequences

2 The climate and climate change

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The weather is a snapshot of temperature, precipitation and wind. The climate is the average weather over a long period of time, often 30 years. We can thus say that the climate tells us what weather it is reasonable to expect in an area. When the climate clearly changes at a global level over many decades, we are talking about climate change. This chapter provides a brief summary of observed and expected climate changes in Norway.

2.1 The climate is no longer stable

The climate on Earth has always been changing, but it has been relatively stable for the past 10,000 years.1 It was in this stable climate that agriculture, civilisation and eventually modern society emerged.2 Due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, however, the climate is no longer stable.3 The global temperature is now rising faster than it has done for at least 2,000 years (see Figure 2.2), and the entire climate system is changing. The development is more rapid,4 and the impact of climate change on nature is more extensive and dramatic than previously thought.5 Globally, we are therefore neither well adapted to the current climate nor to the climate change that lies ahead.6

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Source: Simplification of Figure SPM.1 from Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis (IPCC, 2021) was carried out by the Norwegian Environment Agency as the national focal point for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

2.2 Most rapid warming in the north

In Norway, warming is taking place faster than the global average. While the world is about 1.1 degrees Celsius warmer than during the latter half of the 19th century,7 the average temperature in mainland Norway is now more than 1.2 degrees Celsius higher than at the beginning of the 20th century.8^,9

The temperature is rising more rapidly on Svalbard than any other place on the planet. In Longyearbyen, the average temperature has increased by more than 4 degrees Celsius since 1991 alone,10 and new records are constantly being set.11

The strong warming in the Arctic is linked to the decline of sea ice in the Barents Sea and in the fjords of Svalbard. With less sea ice, the sea becomes more open and darker and absorbs more heat. This, in turn, melts more sea ice. More open and warmer seas will re-radiate heat to the air during large parts of the year, which will further increase warming.12

2.3 Norway has become wetter

As the world warms, precipitation patterns also change. Put simply, dry areas of the world are becoming drier, while wet areas are becoming wetter.13 The average annual precipitation in Norway has increased by 18 per cent since 1900.14 At the same time, episodes of heavy precipitation have become more intense and more frequent.

Higher temperatures also cause more precipitation to fall as rain rather than snow, resulting in shorter snow seasons and earlier spring floods. The glaciers have also retreated significantly over the past century. Overall, these changes have contributed to increased runoff, with the greatest increase in winter and spring on the mainland and in summer and autumn on Svalbard.15

2.4 Climate models show potential climate change in the future

Climate models and scenarios are used to estimate the scale and pace of climate change.16 Climate models calculate changes in the atmosphere, ice, sea and land based on physical and chemical laws. The climate models use assumptions about future greenhouse gas emissions. The level of emissions depends on the choices the global community makes in terms of energy sources, land use, population growth, governance and lifestyles.17

These assumptions about the future are uncertain, and to explore this uncertainty, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) uses different scenarios. The results from the climate models are called climate projections and tell us what kind of climate change to expect in different scenarios. The scenarios differ from each other primarily in relation to their future greenhouse gas emission assumptions.18

The climate projections describe expected changes in temperature, precipitation, snow and other climate variables. The projections are used as a knowledge base for climate change adaptation in various ways, for example in land use and social planning, for dimensioning infrastructure and in risk and vulnerability analyses.19

2.5 Climate change in the next few decades is largely given

Irrespective of how much greenhouse gas emissions the global community reduces today, the global temperature will continue to rise towards the middle of the century because it takes time to see the effect of emission reductions on the climate system. Global warming is likely to pass 1.5 degrees Celsius over the next 20 years.20

In Norway, the trends we are already experiencing, with a warmer and wetter climate, are likely to continue over the next few decades.21 The differences in the changes in the scenarios are therefore relatively small in the short term.22 From the middle of the century, however, there is greater uncertainty about how climate change will develop, and the difference between the scenarios is greater.

2.6 Climate change towards the end of the century may be significant

This section discusses climate change in Norway towards the end of the century. Unless otherwise specified, the changes apply to the period 2071–2100 compared with the reference period 1971–2000 and are based on the high end of the range from the Norwegian climate projections.

2.6.1 Norway is getting warmer

The average annual temperature in Norway may become more than 4 degrees Celsius higher during the 21st century.23 The biggest change in temperature will be during winter. The increase will be greater the further north you go, with Svalbard potentially becoming up to 10 degrees Celsius warmer.24

A warmer climate may result in more days of unusually high temperatures in Norway.25 The maximum temperatures may increase, and we must expect new temperature records.26

Densely populated city centres with extensive areas of asphalt and dark surfaces may become particularly hot. Few cooling elements such as trees, parks and open water, and poor air circulation, will intensify this effect. On hot days, the temperature in the cities may be several degrees Celsius higher than in the surrounding areas.27

2.6.2 More water causes additional problems

The average annual precipitation may increase by just under 20 per cent across mainland Norway and by more than 60 per cent in Svalbard during the 21st century.28

Episodes of heavy precipitation will occur more frequently and become more intense.29 For mainland Norway, this could entail almost twice as many days of heavy precipitation. More precipitation, especially over short periods of time, increases the risk of stormwater and of more frequent and extensive rainwater flooding. Urban areas and small watercourses are particularly vulnerable to intense precipitation,30 especially when the ground is frozen or saturated with water, or has many impenetrable surfaces.31

Higher temperatures will cause more precipitation to fall as rain rather than snow in winter, thereby increasing the winter water flow. In spring, snowmelt floods will come earlier and be smaller. More precipitation is expected in summer, but higher temperatures will also increase evaporation. If evaporation increases more than precipitation, the likelihood of summer droughts increases.32

Landslide risk is strongly related to the local terrain, but weather is an important trigger. Periods of heavy precipitation may especially result in more landslides and debris floods. In the mountains, increased precipitation can lead to more naturally triggered wet snow avalanches, but fewer dry snow avalanches. Increased erosion resulting from more frequent and larger floods can trigger more quick clay landslides, although such landslides are often triggered by human activity. All types of avalanches and landslides can also be affected by natural changes in vegetation and human intervention in the terrain.33

2.6.3 Snow and ice melting

In a warmer climate, winter temperatures in parts of the country will fluctuate more around freezing point.34 This will generally result in more icy conditions and more episodes of snow melting quickly or rain falling on cold ground. Across Norway, except on the high mountains and on Finnmarksvidda, snowfall could be halved or non-existent.35

Permafrost36 is now thawing at an ever-increasing rate and will continue to do so throughout the 21st century. As a result, it may only be possible to find permafrost in the highest mountain areas on the mainland. In the low-lying areas of Svalbard, the uppermost metres of permafrost may thaw completely.37

Ice will also retreat or disappear. In the Barents Sea and in the fjords of Svalbard and Northern Norway, the sea ice will decrease,38 while rivers and lakes in southern and low-lying areas of Norway may be ice-free throughout the year.39 The glaciers on the mainland could shrink by 80–100 per cent. On Svalbard, glacier ice will still cover a significant part of the land towards the end of the century, but more melting is also expected here.40

2.6.4 The ocean is entering a new state

The ocean is entering a new state due to climate change. It is getting warmer, more acidic and less oxygen-rich. Ocean currents are changing, and the sea level is rising due to increased volume in step with the temperature increase as well as extensive ice melting on land. Since the processes in the ocean are slow, the ocean will continue to warm, acidify and rise, even after the year 2100.41

Norwegian waters and coastal areas are also becoming warmer and more acidic.42 The Barents Sea is expected to warm the most, while coastal areas will undergo the most acidification. Marine heatwaves43 are expected to occur more frequently, become more intense and last longer.44

Rising sea levels constitute a permanent change over hundreds to thousands of years.45 Globally, sea levels will continue to rise far beyond the 21st century, even if emissions are rapidly reduced. The sea level along the coast of Norway is now rising by just above three millimetres per year.46 This is expected to accelerate in future, although land uplift after the last ice age47 will reduce the effect in some coastal areas. Expected sea level rise48 ranges from around 15 centimetres in the inner Oslofjord and fjords of Nordland, to around 50 centimetres in Lofoten and south-western Norway.

2.6.5 No major changes expected in wind conditions

No significant changes are expected in the wind conditions over mainland Norway and Svalbard in the coming future.49 Nevertheless, great uncertainty is associated with wind because it is affected by local conditions that the climate models do not adequately capture.50 There is also some uncertainty regarding how storm activity, including thunderstorms,51 will be affected by climate change at our latitudes.52

2.6.6 Concurrent weather events may have major consequences

As global warming increases, so does the likelihood of extreme weather and concurrent weather events. Several extreme events occurring simultaneously will pose an increased risk to society and nature. Prolonged drought combined with heat and strong winds, for example, may increase the risk of forest fires.53

2.7 Tipping points in the climate system may affect Norway

Ocean circulation in the Atlantic, the Greenland ice sheet, carbon in permafrost and boreal forests are examples of tipping elements in the climate system. Such elements could shift from a stable state to a new and different state if global warming passes a temperature threshold. This is called their tipping point, and often entails a relatively abrupt change that is irreversible on the human timescale.54

In the Atlantic, ocean circulation may slow down significantly and reduce heat transport towards our latitudes. The ice sheets of Greenland and West Antarctica may already have passed a point where they will continue to melt for centuries to come, thus accelerating sea level rise. Instead of gradually thawing, the permafrost may thaw abruptly as a result of heatwaves or forest fires. This will release large amounts of greenhouse gases stored in the ground. The extent of boreal forest may significantly change as a result of heat, drought and forest fires.55

Just over 15 tipping elements have been identified in the world. The temperature threshold for when they tip into a new state varies for each element, and there are large uncertainties about the temperature at which this could occur. Some elements may already have passed their tipping points, while others require higher temperatures. Nevertheless, it may take time until the effect can be observed. The risk of crossing tipping points increases with continued global warming.56

Research shows that global warming above 1.5 degrees Celsius increases the likelihood of multiple tipping points being crossed. Further warming increases the risk of crossing even more tipping points. Crossing such tipping points may produce major ripple effects in the climate system, including forest dieback, changes in ice extent and greenhouse gas emissions from thawing permafrost.57

3 Consequences for nature and society

The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report shows that global warming threatens the basis of life and the state of the planet. The report also shows that the destruction of ecosystems increases people’s vulnerability, and that unsustainable land use reduces the ability of ecosystems, society and individuals to adapt to climate change. Climate change is recognised as being a serious threat to world peace and stability and could be an obstacle to poverty alleviation globally. Climate change could also have a negative impact on gender equality.

Since the previous white paper on climate change adaptation (Report No 33 to the Storting (2012–2013)), there have been major advances in knowledge about the consequences of climate change for nature and society in Norway. Among other things, we know more about how climate-related events can trigger chain reactions across sectors, industries and countries. We have also gained new knowledge about how climate change, together with other changes in society, such as urbanisation and technology dependence, are important drivers of new and increased risk and vulnerability in society. Nature is already highly vulnerable through, among other things, land-use changes and pollution. Climate change increases the overall impact on nature and gives rise to a more complex picture of risk in society.

Delimitations and prerequisites

This chapter highlights the expected, and to some extent already observed, impacts of climate change. It highlights the breadth of the impacts on nature and society and illustrates their complexity. It does not provide an exhaustive picture of the impacts, nor do the descriptions relate to a specific emission scenario or time horizon. The descriptions must also be seen in light of uncertainty about future greenhouse gas emissions and the effects and consequences of different degrees of warming.

The description of the various impacts reflects the fact that there is more knowledge in some areas than in others. There is also more knowledge about the impact of climate change in Norway, compared with knowledge of the ripple effects for Norway of climate change elsewhere in the world. Some issues have been known for some time, especially in areas where climate change is exacerbating existing challenges, while in other areas, new issues are emerging. There is also limited knowledge about the interaction between different risk factors and how the impacts of climate change in one sector may have consequences for others.

3.1 Society as a whole is affected by climate change

Chapter 2 makes reference to the fact that the climate is already changing in Norway. In addition to having a major impact on nature, the changes affect social conditions, the economy, the public sector and the business sector. Climate change is a challenge for public security and makes increased demands of both prevention and emergency preparedness. Furthermore, climate change may increase the need for assistance and emergency aid to vulnerable areas and have implications for foreign policy, as well as security and asylum policy.

Climate-related risk exists in a complex interaction with other types of risk, and often reinforces other risk factors. The consequences of pandemics and war are examples of risk factors that may interact with climate change.

3.1.1 The impacts are direct and indirect

Climate change affects Norway directly. An example is that increased rainfall leads to more frequent floods, landslides and stormwater events, which damage buildings and infrastructure, arable land, outdoor areas and cultural environments. In severe cases, this may also pose a risk to life and health. Other examples are more frequent periods of prolonged drought that pose challenges to agriculture, and heatwaves that are a potential health risk to vulnerable groups. Society is also affected by the ripple effects of climate-related events. For example, flood-closed roads can lead to service disruptions and considerable costs for both the public sector and the business sector.

Climate change also knows no national borders. Climate-related risks are transferred between countries through, among other things, trade and global value chains, financial systems and shared ecosystems. Climate change may, for example, lead to a reduction in global food production, in turn increasing the risk of supply shortages and higher prices for food products that Norway must import.

3.1.2 Climate change impacts unequally and may exacerbate social inequality

Social, geographical and economic conditions largely determine how vulnerable people are to climate change. At the same time, climate change could exacerbate existing inequality and vulnerability. Older people, children, socio-economically disadvantaged people, people with disabilities and people with health issues are often more vulnerable to climate change than others. For example, climate change may lead to more expensive fruit and vegetables, which would be detrimental to public health and nutrition, especially for people with low incomes.58 Higher temperatures and more heatwaves may increase health risks going forward, and the chronically ill, elderly and socio-economically disadvantaged groups are most at risk.59 Young people, to a greater degree than older people, are affected by anxiety and worry relating to climate change.

3.2 The economy and business sector

3.2.1 The Norwegian economy is affected

Since climate change affects all areas of society, it also impacts the Norwegian economy. The impact of climate change globally will affect the Norwegian economy as Norway is a small, open economy. The Climate Risk Commission, which assessed climate-related risk factors and their significance for the Norwegian economy in 2018, pointed out that due to the uncertainty of international developments, climate change could entail a wide range of potential developments for the Norwegian economy. The Commission concluded in Norwegian Official Report NOU 2018: 17 Climate risk and the Norwegian economy, however, that the Norwegian economy appears to be relatively robust. The Commission also concluded that well-functioning political institutions, a high level of education and income and a generally adaptable economy provide a good basis for managing climate risk. The Climate Risk Commission considered that risks associated with climate change in other countries will dominate the risk landscape for the Norwegian economy in the long term, especially if the changes lead to extensive migration and weaken international political institutions.

Although many of Norway’s most important trading partners are considered relatively resilient to climate change, we also have close trade ties with countries that are particularly vulnerable to climate change, such as Brazil and China.

3.2.2 The foundations for business and industry are changing

Climate change affects the business sector in different ways, by directly or indirectly affecting the activities of individual industries and companies, and through its consequences for other areas of society. This section describes the impacts of climate change on the business sector in general.

The impact of climate change on the business sector as a whole must be seen in light of the continuous transformation and development taking place in the sector, with companies constantly having to adapt to changes in markets and technology. How individual companies and the private sector as a whole are affected by climate change depends, among other things, on the type of company and industry in question, their location, connection to infrastructure and what links the company and industry have to other countries. For many of the companies, climate change will entail costs associated with adaptation and restructuring. However, the changes may also present opportunities for new business ventures and value creation, for example by improving growth conditions for certain agricultural species.

Industries that are largely based on natural resources, such as agriculture, fisheries and aquaculture, and the energy industry, are particularly vulnerable to the impact of climate change on nature. These industries are directly exposed to changes in the frequency, scale and variation of weather phenomena. Primary industries that are based on the harvesting and renewal of natural resources, such as agriculture and fisheries, are also vulnerable as climate change affects the ecosystems that they depend on.

The impact on primary industries can, in turn, affect secondary industries, such as the food industry and the timber industry, that process raw materials from primary industries. The challenge of bark beetles in forestry, for example, can lead to a shortage of timber, which, in turn, can spread through the value chain and affect timber producers and ultimately the construction industry.

Tertiary industries will also be directly or indirectly affected by climate change. Nature-based tourism is particularly affected by the impact of climate change on nature. The retreat of glaciers and winters with little snow are examples that, in the long run, may significantly change the conditions for such activities.

Textbox 3.2 Businesses hit by flooding

Heavy rain hit Hyen in Gloppen municipality on 30 July 2019. The Årneselva river overflowed its banks, and soil and stone masses inflicted a great deal of damage to the boat builder Brødrene Aa. The company, which specialises in the construction of energy-efficient passenger boats, sustained extensive damage to its production facility. The river reached the shipyard and filled the entire second level with water before the floor eventually collapsed. Vast amounts of stone, gravel and sludge were carried into the premises. In addition to insurance payments of approximately NOK 40 million, a two-month hiatus in production resulted in a sharp drop in turnover and postponement of planned deliveries. The neighbouring company, the smolt producer Hyen Fisk, was also affected by the rough weather. The company sustained minor damage to its premises, but lost a lot of fish in the aftermath of the event.

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The facilities sustained extensive damage.

Photo: Brødrene Aa

3.2.3 Climate change affects value chains, infrastructure and prices

The indirect impacts, i.e. the ripple effects of climate-related events, will be felt by many businesses. Companies are generally dependent on well-functioning power and communication infrastructure, that employees are able to get to work and that goods can be transported to and from their facilities. Events such as floods and landslides may lead to disruptions and delays in these systems. There are already several examples of production sites with international value chains being isolated as a result of floods and landslides.

Many Norwegian companies are part of cross-border value chains and are thus exposed to the risk of climate change in other countries. Disruptions in important transport networks abroad will also affect Norwegian actors. The same will apply to changes in production conditions elsewhere, such as higher prices of imported input factors for Norwegian businesses. Norway has significant imports of feed products from North and South America and Asia. Norwegian direct investments in real estate and oil and gas installations in other countries are also vulnerable to climate change. Norwegian investment portfolios are also exposed to climate-related risks, especially in parts of the world where the impacts of climate change will be particularly severe.

3.2.4 The insurance industry is affected

Climate change will affect all branches of the financial industry, especially insurance companies. The insurance industry assumes the risk of unforeseen damage, including events caused by nature. Finance Norway points out that there has been an increase in damage to buildings and household contents as a result of weather and nature-related events in recent decades. During the period 2001–2020, the number of reported flood-related claims in Norway increased, and both total compensation costs and the average compensation amount per claim increased. In its most recent climate report, Finance Norway states, among other things, that more than NOK 30 billion has been spent over the past 10 years on compensating damage to buildings and household contents.60

The Stormwater Commission, which in 2015 submitted its report on the management of stormwater in urban areas, estimated the total claims costs incurred due to stormwater to be between NOK 1.6 and 3.6 billion annually.

3.3 Nature and ecosystems

3.3.1 Serious consequences for nature

The effects of climate change on nature are more severe and extensive than previously expected. Both species and habitats are negatively affected. The ecological state of ecosystems, and thus also the ecosystem services nature provides, is deteriorating. The Norwegian Nature Index, which measures the state of biodiversity, shows that climate change has a major negative impact on biodiversity in the oceans, in the seas along the coast and in the mountains.

Loss and degradation of nature exacerbate the effects of climate change, such as droughts and floods. The loss of habitats as a result of encroachments is currently the greatest threat to biodiversity in Norway, and climate change often acts as an additional burden, exacerbating the negative impacts of land encroachment and other encroachments on nature. Nature’s vulnerability to the changing climate could be intensified by the fact that human impacts, including through land use and pollution, reduce species’ and ecosystems’ ability to withstand climate change.

3.3.2 Changing habitats

The Norwegian Red List for Species shows that climate change is one of the major factors affecting habitats in Norway, so much so that they may be lost in the long term.

Climate change is expected to lead to some habitats increasing in size, while others decrease. Forest areas, for instance, are expected to increase, while the extent of mountain moors and ocean beaches will most likely decrease. At the same time, although forests can be expected to grow in size, climate change will also increase the risk of drought, forest fires, plant diseases and the spread of parasites and other species that cause damage.

The Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food and Environment writes the following: ‘The forest ecosystem is more resilient to rapid climate change, including interferences such as fires, temperature stress, damage and disease, when the forest consists of a diversity of species of tree, including various deciduous trees, and when it contains several age classes, high biodiversity, and complete nutrient networks. Mixed stocks are less susceptible to interference than stocks of a single species or age group. Pure, same-age spruce stocks are by far the most vulnerable. Mixed stocks house greater biodiversity, making them, and, on a larger scale, the forest as an ecosystem, more robust and resilient to climate change.61

Damage to the forest may reduce carbonuptake and carbon already stored in the Norwegian forest and negatively affect forest-based industries. The Scientific Committee’s report only considers natural distribution and adaptation of forest trees. Through forest plant breeding and active silviculture, spruce forests can be made more resilient to climate change while also increasing production and carbon uptake.

Textbox 3.5 Glaciers in Norway are retreating

The glaciers are sensitive to climate change. Analyses show that even though precipitation looks set to increase in the future, it will not compensate for increased ice melt due to rising temperatures. The glaciers will continue to melt with increasing intensity. High levels of greenhouse gas emissions could lead to two thirds of glacier ice in Norway disappearing in 70–100 years.

Glaciers are important landscape elements. They are also important natural water reservoirs that provide water to the rivers during the melting period. A number of hydropower plants use inflows from glaciers. Glacier melt also affects the flora and fauna in the areas around glaciers.

The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) conducts measurements of Norwegian glaciers to monitor developments and document the effects of climate change. All the monitored glaciers have retreated over the past 20 years.

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Engabreen is an outlet glacier of the Svartisen glacier. From 1998 to 2021, the glacier retreated 668 metres.

Photo: Hallgeir Elvehøy, NVE.

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Many seabirds are affected by climate change. The puffin, pictured, is one of the species suffering a food shortage because the fish it feeds on has migrated due to warmer waters. The puffin was included in the Norwegian Red List for Species in 2021.

Photo: Geir Wing Gabrielsen, Norwegian Polar Institute.

3.3.3 Many species are vulnerable to climate change

The 2021 Norwegian Red List for Species (the Red List) provides an overview of species that are at risk of disappearing from Norway. Climate change has been cited as a negative impact factor for almost 10 per cent of the endangered species in Norway and Norwegian marine areas on the 2021 Red List. Species that live in Arctic and alpine areas are especially threatened by climate change. Many more species are expected to struggle with increased warming. Time is another important factor in the assessment. Assessments of how endangered the species on the Red List are take a ten-year perspective. Thus, in a longer perspective, many more species may in fact be threatened by climate change.

For species that thrive in warmer environments, a milder climate may be positive, but as species migrate, the interaction and competitive relationship between the species changes. The spread of species to new regions may occur at the expense of species that already have habitats there. One example is the red fox, which is a strong competitor to the arctic fox as it migrates further up into the mountains. Harmful alien species have a negative impact on the state of ecosystems, and climate change enables many such species to becomes established in Norway.

3.3.4 The ocean is getting warmer and more acidic

Climate change affects the ocean through higher temperatures, and through higher carboncontent leading to ocean acidification. Temperature and salinity are decisive for the species and diversity we can expect to find in Norwegian waters. Various species of fish and other animals in the ocean and along the coast are migrating further north, altering the conditions for other species in the food chain. Seabirds are affected by changes in access to fish and other prey.

When the ocean becomes more acidic, it loses carbonate, which is an important building block for many animals and algae that build skeletons or shells. A more acidic ocean may therefore cause major changes to ecosystems. Higher sea temperatures may lead to a number of species gradually being forced northwards, affecting the species that already live there, which in turn has major ripple effects in the ecosystems. One example can be found in the North Sea where the copepod Calanus finmarchicus is outcompeted by the more heat tolerant Calanus helolandicus. The latter is less nutritious and is available later in the season, making it less suitable as food for, among other things, the vulnerable North Sea cod. Another example is mackerel migrating north and taking over the habitats of Arctic cod, a key species in Arctic ecosystems.

In addition to an increase in the average temperature of the ocean, more marine heatwaves are also expected. Marine heatwaves may be more destructive to marine life than terrestrial heatwaves are to flora and fauna since marine species are adapted to relatively stable temperatures and have fewer opportunities to avoid the heat. Kelp forests along the Norwegian coast, which are important natural carbon stores, are also vulnerable to marine heatwaves.

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More than half of all the days of heatwaves in the Barents Sea from 1982 to 2020 have come in the past decade.

Photo: Allan Klo, NRK.

3.3.5 Particularly large impacts in the Arctic

Many species adapt to a warmer world by migrating further north or by seeking higher altitudes. For species that already live in high mountain areas or in the Arctic, there are few opportunities for such adaptation. The consequences of this could be vast and unpredictable, and change entire terrestrial and marine ecosystems. In the Arctic part of Finnmark, new attacks by autumnal moths have caused huge damage to birch trees, and lemming years are becoming rarer. In addition, some species, such as Arctic foxes and snowy owls, are endangered.

Arctic sea ice reduction will also threaten many animal species. As the ice disappears and more and more marine and coastal areas become ice-free for all or large parts of the year, some species of seal will lose their habitats, and the polar bear will lose its hunting grounds. Many other species that depend on the sea ice will also disappear from increasingly large parts of the Arctic. Svalbard is one of the places in the Arctic where sea ice is declining fastest, both in summer and winter. There is now more rain during winter in the Arctic than before and thus more rainfall on snow. This can result in ice formation on the ground and prevent animals from reaching grazing lands. This may affect herbivores in Svalbard, such as the Svalbard rock ptarmigan and Svalbard reindeer. At the same time, a longer growing season will increase plant growth and food availability for herbivores during summer.

3.4 Outdoor life

3.4.1 The conditions for outdoor life are changing

Climate change will alter the conditions for outdoor life, as it will change what outdoor activities can be done at different times of the year. The biggest changes will be during winter. Less snow will result in significantly fewer days of skiing, especially in the lowlands. Snow depth has been measured at Bjørnholt in Nordmarka in Oslo since 1896. The number of ski days has dropped from 136 to 95 since only 1990. Nationally, the number of days when the conditions are right for skiing is already one month shorter than just 30-40 years ago. At the same time, a lack of snow will allow outdoor activities that have previously mainly been done during the summer months to be practised throughout the year. This applies, for example, to cycling and hiking in outlying land.

Higher temperatures in summer may lead to increased use and more pressure on beach areas along the sea, lakes and watercourses. This, in turn, will lead to more degradation of the natural environment. Higher temperatures and more precipitation will also lead to increased growth, causing outlying land to become overgrown. More precipitation could pose challenges on paths and hiking trails and increase the need for maintenance. In combination with visitor growth at the hiking destinations, the need to build footbridges and facilitate increasingly wet trails, re-route trails near landslide areas and repair bridges in the mountains will increase.

3.5 Food security and food production

Climate change has already reduced food security in the world. Food security is defined as all people, at all times, having physical and financial access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their nutritional needs and food preferences so that they can live active and healthy lives. Food security is affected by climate change in that global warming diminishes the properties of arable land, increases pressure from plant pests and animal diseases, reduces the abundance of terrestrial and marine fauna and impairs important ecosystem services such as pollination. Global food security is also threatened by droughts, floods, heatwaves and rising sea levels.

Vulnerability to reduced food security is exacerbated by underlying conditions such as poverty, social inequality, poor sanitation and limited access to water, macroeconomic and political upheavals, and conflict.

3.5.1 Climate change presents a risk to the food system

The food system consists of a number of actors, processes and activities, in addition to value chains that often cross national borders. From the primary production of food to it ending up on the consumer’s table, factors such as climate, environment, infrastructure, technology and labour have been linked in production and supply chains.

Agriculture in Norway is directly affected by climate change and must be further developed and prepared for a warming climate, with longer frost-free periods, extreme precipitation, drought and changed biodiversity. Crop failures in other parts of the world, and subsequent fluctuations in global food prices will also have spillover effects in Norway. Around 65 per cent of Norway’s food imports come from the EU. Food production in southern Europe is expected to be severely affected by droughts and heatwaves in particular. This may affect Norway’s imports of fruit and vegetables from these areas. There is also an increased risk of important production areas being affected by climate-related events simultaneously. As is the case in other areas, vulnerability is exacerbated when climate-related risk is seen in conjunction with other risk factors.

3.5.2 Norwegian agricultural production will be affected

The growing season in Norway is expected to lengthen. At the same time, an increase in extreme weather and drought is also expected, as well as an increased incidence of plant and animal diseases, which could reduce productivity. Increased rainfall will entail more difficult growing and harvesting conditions, while intense episodes of rainfall can damage crops. This also increases the risk of flooding, landslides and erosion with ensuing damage to agricultural land.

Although the annual precipitation in Norway is expected to increase, some areas may experience more drought during summer, which can also affect important areas for the production of food grains and other crops.62

3.5.3 Climate change impacts fisheries and aquaculture

Climate change leads to a warmer, more acidic and less oxygen-rich ocean. This may, among other things, lead to lower productivity in marine ecosystems, reproduction failure and the migration of fish stocks. Some of the biggest changes in the world are expected to be observed in the Barents Sea and the northern parts of the Norwegian Sea.

Climate change affects the condition of ecosystems, leading to widespread structural changes. This is, for example, evident in the establishment of heat tolerant species in areas dominated by Arctic species. Such changes affect fish stocks, the state of aquaculture locations and the raw material basis for the fish processing industry. This increases predation pressure on the species already found in these areas. For Arctic species, less ice cover is also expected to lead to loss of habitat and available prey.

For fisheries, higher temperatures will result in more dispersed distribution of fish stocks, making it more costly to monitor and harvest fish. Increased runoff may contribute to eutrophication in the fjords, for example, thereby reducing the quality of nursery and adult habitats for local coastal stocks. At the same time, some stocks are likely to adapt to higher temperatures more efficiently and increase in size, while some migrate from warmer waters.

The size of fishing quotas is calculated based on scientific assessments of the state of different fish stocks. Climate change affects this state and thus also which and how much fish can be harvested. The migration of fish species can make it difficult to calculate fishery quotas because it is not known exactly how the stock will develop, how ecosystems are affected and because the species may migrate to other countries’ marine areas. Fish populations may increase in some areas, but decline in others.

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Climate change will change the cod’s spawning patterns. In the future, the cod may migrate further away from Lofoten towards the northern coast of Russia to spawn, according to a study by the Norwegian Institute of Marine Research (2020). Warmer oceans are the main explanation for these conclusions. The study also shows that there may be other reasons for the cod changing spawning habits. Spawning migration is probably also affected by the location of the sea ice cap. The cod feed throughout the ice-free part of the Barents Sea. When the ice cap draws northwards during warm periods, the distance to the southernmost spawning grounds generally increases.

Photo: Trond Isaksen, Directorate for Cultural Heritage.

The aquaculture industry is also affected by climate change. The industry is vulnerable to temperature increases since farmed species are adapted to current temperatures and any increase will lead to poorer living and growing conditions. Higher sea temperatures also entail higher biological risks associated with disease, algae blooms, salmon lice and other parasites. Rising sea temperatures may therefore in the long term lead to changes both in terms of which species are used in aquaculture, which areas are best suited for production and localisation patterns.

Extreme weather events may affect the fish farms. An increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events may require more robust farms. Increased runoff of environmental pollutants from land to the sea as a result of increased precipitation could also have consequences for the fish farms. Drought may affect access to water for land-based facilities.

The industry may also face the risk of potential limitations on the supply of feed and increases in the prices of imported feed. Farmed fish in Norway are fed both animal and vegetable feed, such as fishmeal and soy, and 90 per cent of the raw materials for the fish feed are imported. Research shows that climate change could reduce the world’s soy production by up to 3.3 per cent per decade going forward in this century.

3.6 Life and health

3.6.1 The climate crisis is also a health crisis

The World Health Organization (WHO) states that climate change is the greatest health threat facing humanity. Climate change will affect health and living conditions, both physically and mentally.63 Heatwaves, droughts, forest fires, extreme weather, reduced access to food and clean drinking water and changes in insect-borne diseases are examples of how climate change can impact health and health systems.64 Climate change thereby contributes to disease, premature death, malnutrition and mental ill-health. There is a global increase in climate-related health challenges. The impact of climate change on health is often unevenly distributed in and across societies – and this will continue because of differences in exposure and vulnerability to climate change. People with underlying, chronic disease, for example, are particularly likely to experience negative health effects.

Norway’s geographical location, robust economy and well-developed healthcare system make it less vulnerable to the effects of climate change on health compared with many other countries. However, there is an increasing incidence of extreme events such as floods, landslides and heatwaves linked to climate change, and the prevalence of some infectious diseases has increased due to the rise in average temperatures. These trends are expected to increase.

In Norway, public health and the health service will be affected by various factors relating to climate change, generally speaking an intensification of the risk posed by the current climate. An increase in extreme weather events and more frequent floods and landslides can cause damage and loss of life. It will also threaten critical infrastructure such as health and care institutions, roads, the power supply and phone connections, which in turn pose an increased risk of death and injury. Climate-related events may also affect the accessibility and availability of health and care services, such as home-based services. Furthermore, the number of days with temperatures of around zero degrees Celsius is expected to increase over the next few decades in some parts of the country, leading to more icy conditions on the ground and greater risk of accidents and falls.

3.6.2 Increased prevalence of existing and new infectious diseases

Illness transmitted via a biological carrier, where the carrier is not necessarily ill itself may become more common among people and animals in new parts of the country. Ticks are one example in this context. They spread the bacterial disease Lyme disease and the viral disease tick-borne encephalitis. Ticks are expected to move further inland, further north and higher up as the temperature rises, snow cover decreases and the growth season lengthens. Diseases spread through alien species may also begin to emerge in Norway.

Global warming will also increase the prevalence of existing and new infectious diseases in the world. Norwegians travelling abroad may pick up such diseases and bring infection back to Norway. A new report shows that climate change may increase the risk of pandemics.65

3.6.3 Food security and drinking water quality will be affected

Food sold in Norway and drinking water from Norwegian water supply systems are generally safe. However, climate change could also be a challenge in this context. Rising temperatures and more precipitation may lead to undesirable microorganisms thriving in food products. For example, mycotoxins in feed and food are expected to increase, potentially leading to acute poisoning or long-term negative impacts on the health of both people and animals. A warmer and wetter climate may also lead to the release of more environmental toxins from waste disposal sites, which could end up in the food we eat.

Higher temperatures, torrential rain and floods can affect the quality of drinking water and increase the risk of water-borne infections and challenge the capacity of water purifying plants. Floods and landslides can damage the pipe network and thereby cut off the water supply. Periods of drought can lead to water shortages. Cyanobacterial blooms, which produce toxins, could be another consequence of an increase in the sea surface temperature.

3.6.4 Increased risk of allergies and asthma

An increase in temperature will also lead to more air pollution because it increases the amount of small particles and levels of ground-level ozone. This may impact health by reducing lung function, lead to more cases of bronchitis and asthma, a higher risk of respiratory infections and higher mortality from cardiovascular diseases.

An increase in temperature will change the growth conditions for trees and plants that produce pollen. This may intensify and extend the pollen season and expand the areas in which pollen is a problem for health. New plants with very allergenic pollen, such as ragweed, could gain a foothold in Norway. This will aggravate the symptoms for those who are already allergic and may lead to more people developing allergies.

3.6.5 Climate change affects mental health

For many people, and young people in particular, climate change may be a source of concern and may affect mental health. Globally, we have seen an increase in the incidence of post-traumatic stress disorder, depression and anxiety in the aftermath of climate-related disasters caused by extreme weather events such as storms, heatwaves, droughts and forest fires.

3.7 Buildings and infrastructure

Climate change brings about the need for buildings and infrastructure to withstand extreme events. This includes more intense precipitation events, floods and landslides. Some areas that are already at risk will become even more so, while some areas that are at present considered safe will become more at risk of such events. The Office of the Auditor General’s study of the authorities’ work on the adaptation of buildings and infrastructure shows that 116,000 of today’s buildings may be in areas at risk of 200-year storm surge events in 2090. This is 60 per cent more than those at risk of a 200-year storm surge today.

3.7.1 Increased impact on buildings

Floods and stormwater increase the risk of water penetrating buildings. For many towns, stormwater is already a major problem, and intense rainfall causes severe damage to buildings in Norway every year.

Increased and more intense rainfall will also result in more problems relating to damp. The risk of rot in wooden structures largely depends on the local weather and climate, and climate change will bring more areas of Norway into the risk zone. Mould in buildings poses a health risk, as it may aggravate or cause allergies and other respiratory problems.

Textbox 3.9 Torrential rain and stormwater in Fredrikstad

In September 2019, parts of Fredrikstad experienced torrential rain. One measuring station in the town registered 50 millimetres of rain in just two hours. The rain overwhelmed the water mains, flooding around 250 cellars, making it the most expensive weather event in Norway in 2019 for insurance companies, which had to pay millions of kroner in insurance payouts. Analyses show that climate change will lead to more frequent and intense episodes of torrential rain in Norway.

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The torrential rain in Fredrikstad in 2019 flooded streets and basements.

Photo: Merete Aarøy.

3.7.2 Increased impact on transport infrastructure

The increase in episodes of intense rainfall and flood and landslide events will cause particular problems for roads and railways. In recent years, many water-related events have caused major damage to and economic costs for roads and railways in several parts of the country. The increased likelihood of various types of landslide and rockfalls can impact road safety and lead to more frequent traffic disruption. Higher storm surge levels as a result of rising sea levels could have the same impact. Maritime infrastructure is also affected by rising sea levels, ocean acidification and generally harsher climatic conditions. Climate change will generally lead to higher impact and wear on such infrastructure.

Sea level rise is an important issue for airports, as many airports are only a few metres above sea level and runways are often built on landfills in the sea. Increased rainfall will make higher demands of runway drainage. More water and increased runoff may also create challenges as the water accumulates the chemicals used to de-ice aircraft.

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Clean-up work on the E39 road along Jølstravatnet lake, between Skei and Vassenden, following a landslide as a result of torrential rain.

Photo: Silje Drevdal, Norwegian Public Roads Administration.

3.7.3 Challenges of water and wastewater management

Water and wastewater systems are critical infrastructure, and the water mains and treatment plants in many places sorely need maintenance and upgrading. Increased rainfall, and particularly intense episodes of rainfall, will put a great deal of pressure on the water and wastewater system, thereby exacerbating the challenges.

Inadequate capacity in the water mains may lead to untreated waste water leaking into rivers, lakes or the sea. Overloading waste water treatment plants will make it difficult to treat the waste water effectively, with potential impacts on health and the environment. During heavy rainfall and flood situations, drinking water may be at risk of contamination since pipes and manhole covers may be submerged, and contaminated water may penetrate the water supply. Cities and towns are particularly at risk in the event of a water shortage or contamination of drinking water.

3.7.4 Impact on the power supply

NVE has assessed the vulnerability of power infrastructure with respect to climate change. NVE believes climate change will increasingly affect power infrastructure in the form of major floods that increase pressure on dams, the risk of more icing of power lines and risk of storm damage.66 Already today, climate and weather conditions cause most of the faults and disruption in the distribution network, for example by trees falling over power lines. Climate change may also bring about an increase in the potential for hydropower production as a result of more rainfall.

3.7.5 Rapid warming affects buildings and infrastructure in Svalbard

Global warming is even stronger in Svalbard than in mainland Norway, and flooding and thawing of permafrost affects its buildings. The rising temperature of the permafrost will lead to poorer bearing strength, an increase in subsidence damage and challenges with erosion. Changed snow and avalanche conditions threaten at-risk buildings in Longyearbyen. Several houses have been destroyed by avalanches, and lives have been lost. The increased risk of avalanches has led to the demolition of several houses in Longyearbyen.

Stormwater management is another major challenge in Svalbard. Due to the permafrost and ice cover, even moderate amounts of rain can result in significant runoff. Poorly developed and, at times, ice-filled culverts and supply pipes may present challenges in the form of closed roads, problems for air traffic and icing of infrastructure. Thawing permafrost already creates challenges for Svalbard Airport with eluviation and altered ground masses under the runway.

3.8 Cultural heritage

According to the IPCC, climate change poses a serious threat to both tangible and intangible cultural heritage.

3.8.1 Climate change challenges preservation of the cultural environment

The cultural environment encompasses all traces of human life and activity in our physical environment, including places that tell the story of historical events, beliefs and traditions. The term ‘cultural environment’ is used as a collective term for cultural monuments, cultural environments and landscapes.

As for buildings in general and other physical infrastructure, the cultural environment is at risk of damage from events such as floods, landslides etc., heatwaves, droughts and storm surges and by slow-moving processes as a result of increased temperature, higher humidity and more precipitation. All materials degrade over time, and for the vast majority of materials, degradation is faster in a warmer and humid climate.

The technical condition of a cultural environment has a significant bearing on how vulnerable it is to climate-related stresses. A well-maintained building will be better equipped to withstand climate-related stresses than one that is poorly maintained. The cultural environment underwater, in the High North and in the mountains is particularly at risk. A milder climate makes wooden buildings, which make up a large proportion of the listed building stock in Norway, vulnerable to rot, mould and wood-destroying insects.

Rising sea levels, increased storm surge levels and more coastal erosion will create challenges for the cultural environment along the coast and under water. Longer growing seasons result in cultural landscapes becoming more quickly overgrown. Climate change will also increase the risk of chemical degradation of rock and metals, and mechanical degradation due to more frequent freezing and thawing processes. This will have consequences for, among other things, ruins and archaeological monuments, including the weathering of rock art.

3.8.2 The cultural heritage in Svalbard and in the mountains is already affected by climate change

In the Arctic and high mountains, climate change is already having visible and critical consequences for cultural heritage. In Svalbard, the rapid warming is thawing the permafrost, and leading to higher temperature and less ice in the fjords. This results in rot damage, coastal erosion and altered soil mechanics.

When glaciers in the mountains thaw and retreat, archaeological artefacts that have been well preserved in the ice are revealed. Such finds provide new knowledge, but are vulnerable and will quickly degrade and disappear if left in the open.

Textbox 3.10 Glacier archaeology

Climate change is causing glaciers and snow drifts to melt, revealing a large number of historical artefacts that provide knowledge of people’s use of the mountainous areas in earlier times. Shoes, coats, skis, arrows and other transport and hunting equipment have been found. The oldest finds that have been made in Norway are around 6,000 years old, and they are extremely vulnerable. As soon as they emerge from the ice, the degradation process starts and they will decompose if they are not collected, documented and preserved.

Since 2011, Innlandet County Authority has had a glacier archaeology preservation programme in collaboration with the Museum of Cultural History at the University of Oslo. The programme works to collect, preserve and tell the story of the objects, and is co-financed by the Ministry of Climate and Environment. Several of the objects are on display at the Norwegian Mountain Centre in Lom.

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Discovery of 1,300-year-old skis in Reinheimen National Park in 2021.

Photo: Espen Finstad, Innlandet County Authority.

3.8.3 The conditions for cultural practices are changing

The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) defines intangible cultural heritage as the practices, representations, expressions, knowledge, skills – and associated instruments, objects, artefacts and cultural spaces – that communities, groups and individuals recognise as part of their cultural heritage.

There is a strong link between tangible and intangible cultural heritage. When climate change affects and changes the conditions for the practice of traditional culture, it also affects the practices, representations, expressions, knowledge and skills associated with it. This applies to all cultural practices, but is particularly evident for Sami traditional cultural practices.

3.9 Sami culture and society

Close links between nature, culture and industry make Sami society vulnerable to climate change in several ways. Norway’s Sami population is dispersed across the country. In Norway, Sápmi – Samiland – extends from Finnmark to the northern parts of Innlandet. Climate change will play a role in changing the conditions for traditional, nature-based business activities such as reindeer husbandry, agriculture, marine industries, fisheries and outlying industries. These industries are important for employment and settlement, but they are also important carriers of intangible cultural heritage such as language and culture. When climate change affects and changes the conditions for the practice of traditional Sami culture, it also affects practices, representations, expressions, knowledge and skills related thereto.

3.9.1 Climate change is impacting reindeer husbandry

Reindeer husbandry is an important cultural carrier. The industry is small on a Norwegian scale, but important in Sami and local contexts. Reindeer husbandry is based on the reindeer grazing in outlying land all year round. Since the natural conditions and the needs of the reindeer vary during the year, the reindeer move between different pastures. The effects of climate change have led to reindeer being moved in different ways and at different times than previously, since rivers and lakes in some areas now freeze over later in the year. Changes in temperature and precipitation also cause icing and inaccessible pastures, and may also necessitate changes in the use of pastures.

Climate change already affects reindeer husbandry and is expected to do so increasingly towards 2100. The grazing crises in the winter and spring of 2020 and in 2022 have provided insight into the consequences of climate change for the industry. During the grazing crisis in 2020, 75 per cent of the country’s reindeer husbandry was affected by large amounts of snow and inaccessible pastures. This happens when temperatures fluctuate, alternating between snow and rain. This can lead to layers of ice forming that make the pasture inaccessible.

There is also an increased risk of parasites moving further north as the temperature increases. Increased numbers of insects put reindeer herds at risk of more stress and disease. In addition, reindeer husbandry is also experiencing a great deal of pressure on pastureland. Climate change entails a growing need for flexibility in grazing and migration patterns, and encroachments on grazing areas will therefore entail greater challenges for reindeer husbandry.

Changes in the climate will also increase the risk of accidents in reindeer husbandry practice. Lakes and rivers that have previously been safe to cross are no longer as safe, and some areas are now more at risk of avalanches.

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Feeding of reindeer in the Ildgruben reindeer grazing district in Nordland during the grazing crisis in 2022.

Photo: Ministry of Agriculture and Food.

3.9.2 Indigenous knowledge

Climate change is particularly felt in the Arctic, and many Sami people have a culture and way of life that is especially adapted to an Arctic climate. The close links between people and nature have led to the Sami population developing unique ways of observing and relating to changes in the environment. Important knowledge of traditional and sustainable use of nature is kept alive through practice and passed down through generations.

Climate change is changing the material basis for cultural practice, such that knowledge that has been passed down the generations may be lost. The IPCC stresses the value of indigenous knowledge, among other things as a means of understanding and evaluating adaptations and for reducing the risks associated with a changing climate.

3.10 International relations

Nearly half of the world’s population lives in areas or in ways that make them highly vulnerable to climate change. The IPCC shows that more and more extreme events have already exposed millions of people to acute food insecurity and reduced water security. The productivity of agriculture, fisheries and aquaculture has diminished. Around half of the world’s population experience severe water shortages for parts of the year. All over the world, heatwaves have resulted in health problems and deaths. The incidence of infectious diseases and mental health challenges has increased, and more and more people are being displaced. The world’s poorest and most vulnerable people are hardest hit by climate change. The need for adaptation measures is increasing. Many countries and communities have already experienced loss and damage as a result of climate change.

3.10.1 Vulnerability is unevenly distributed

Vulnerability in the face of climate change is unevenly distributed, and is exacerbated by inequality and marginalisation related to gender, ethnicity, income levels or combinations thereto, especially for many indigenous peoples. For example, the impact of climate change on the food system could have consequences for entire populations, but certain groups of people are more vulnerable than others. Women, the elderly and children from low-income families, indigenous peoples, minorities, small-scale producers and people living in high-risk regions are more likely to experience malnutrition, loss of livelihood and rising costs than others. Observed mortality as a result of flooding and drought is also much greater in areas where the population is particularly vulnerable due to historical, political and socio-economic differences.

The IPCC indicates that climate change hits those who are most vulnerable the hardest. They often live in the most vulnerable regions of the world: East, Central, and West Africa, South Asia, Central America, the Caribbean, and Western Pacific island states.

Climate change will impact the living conditions of the world’s poor, including through crop reduction or failure, negative consequences for health and food security, destruction of homes, and lost income – especially in agriculture.

3.10.2 Climate change poses a threat to peace and stability

Climate change is increasingly recognised as a serious risk to peace and stability in the world. First and foremost, the consequences of climate change are seen as a factor that could exacerbate and aggravate underlying causes of conflict. Climate change may thus change the security landscape for the Norwegian Armed Forces and the missions it is assigned.

The impact of climate change is a particular threat to security and stability in the Global South, where it may have a huge impact on vulnerable states. Climate change is expected to lead to shortages of resources such as water and arable land, crops will be more prone to failure, and research shows that there may be more conflicts over scarce resources.

Climate change already poses security challenges for the High North. Among other things, warming leads to the retreat of the ice, making it easier for commercial, civilian and military actors to operate in the Arctic. In the High North, it must be borne in mind that climate change creates increased activity, new challenges and new risks. Increased traffic over larger areas in the High North will give the Armed Forces a larger operational area. This could, for instance, lead to longer supply lines and an increased need for logistics for the Coast Guard. The report ‘Climate Change and Security in the Arctic’, produced by the Center for Climate and Security, shows that the security risks associated with a warmer Arctic must be added to the already rising tensions expected in the High North over the next decade.67

3.10.3 Climate change could affect migration patterns

Weather events and climatic conditions can both be direct drivers of migration, for example when events destroy homes, and indirect drivers, for example through loss of income or lack of food due to crop failure. Whether or not people migrate is strongly influenced by economic, social, political and demographic processes.

Very few studies have attempted to make systematic projections of regional or global migration in a changing climate. Future migration patterns will depend not only on the physical effects of climate change, but also on other factors such as policy and social development. The link between climate change and migration will vary between regions and over time. Climate-related migration depends on the kind of climate risk people are exposed to, their vulnerability, and their own ability as well as the authorities’ ability to adapt and manage the risk.

Changes in migration patterns and scope in other parts of the world may affect migration to Norway, but there is limited knowledge about the possible consequences of climate-related migration for Norway. Although flight due to climate change is not covered by the UN Refugee Convention, the secondary effects of climate change, such as war and political instability, may trigger a need for protection and thus have consequences for Norway.