6 Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptation measures

6.1 Summary

The Norwegian economy, environment and society are vulnerable to climate change. The Government has conducted several actions, in compliance with the requirements of UNFCCC, to prepare for climate change.

In 2010, the Official Norwegian Report12 NOU 2010: 10 Adapting to a changing climate was published. In this report, a committee appointed by the Government assessed Norway’s vulnerability to the effects of climate change and the need to adapt. The NOU incorporates many of the aspects described in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impacts Assessment and Adaptation Strategies. Following publication of the NOU, a white paper on climate change adaptation, Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Climate change adaptation in Norway, was prepared and adopted by the Norwegian Parliament. The white paper outlines actions to be taken at various governmental levels and within sectors in order to adapt to a changing climate. In 2022, the Government announced that it will start working on a new report to the Storting (white paper) on adaptation to climate change, due to be submitted in 2023.

Since the release of Norway’s 7^th National Communication in 2018, Norway has passed several milestones in its work related to climate change adaptation, and important progress has been made on local to national administrative levels and across different sectors. An NOU concerning climate risk and the Norwegian economy has been published, and central government planning guidelines on how to integrate climate change adaptation into municipal planning activities has been developed. Capacity building has been strengthened through networks, cooperation and other activities related to climate change adaptation. Climate change adaptation is also integrated into strategies and action plans within and across relevant sectors, such as in the recently adopted white paper Meld. St. 9 (2020–2021) Mennesker, muligheter og norske interesser i nord (translates to “People, opportunities, and Norwegian interests in the Arctic”, with an English abstract available)13. Moreover, the Norwegian Parliament adopted a Climate Change Act in 2017, which includes reporting requirements related to adaptation to climate change. The Office of the Auditor General (OAG) of Norway recently assessed the work of the government authorities in adapting infrastructure and built-up areas to a changing climate, revealing that the Norwegian government authorities do not have the necessary overview of the risks of natural disasters in a future climate.14

This chapter provides an overview of observed and projected climate change in Norway, the expected impacts of these changes and related risks and vulnerabilities. Furthermore, the framework for climate change adaptation work is described, including the legal framework, policies and strategies. Adaptation actions are presented in the final part of the chapter. Norway’s climate change-related support to developing countries is described in chapter 7.

6.2 Climate modelling, projections and scenarios

6.2.1 Climate change on the Norwegian mainland

6.2.1.1 Introduction

Norway is a sub-Arctic country with a long and convoluted coastline combined with a long mountain chain facing a relatively warm ocean surface to the south, west and north. This results in large geographical contrasts in the present climatic conditions as well as in the projections of future climate change. These contrasts are found both from coastal to inland and mountainous regions, for ocean and land areas from the southwest to the north and – even more so – from the Norwegian mainland to the Arctic islands (Svalbard and Jan Mayen). Climate change in Norwegian waters and in the Norwegian Arctic are described in sections 6.2.2 Climate change in Norwegian waters and 6.5.2 Climate change in the Norwegian Arctic, respectively.

In Norway, comprehensive studies of regional climate development in a scenario of global warming were initiated in 1997 through the RegClim project, and from 2007 to 2011, continued in the NorClim project. In later years, several research projects have contributed to continuing these activities, and from it was established in 2013, the Norwegian Centre for Climate Services (NCCS) has taken on a responsibility for regular assessments of climate projections for Norway.

In 2015, NCCS published an updated report describing projections of climate change for the Norwegian mainland from a recent time period (1971–2000) and up to two scenario periods (2031–2060 and 2071–2100).15 The projections are based on statistical and dynamic downscaling of global climate model results from IPCCs Fifth Assessment Report (2013/2014). During the same year, NCCS – in collaboration with the Norwegian Mapping Authority (NMA) – also published a report on projected sea level changes along the Norwegian coast.16 It used the same database for downscaling, but from the period 1986–2005 to 2081–2100.

Both reports provided results for three different emission scenarios: the low emission scenario RCP2.6, the intermediate emission scenario RCP4.5 and the high emission scenario RCP8.5. Of the three, graphics are shown for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, while the text describes the resulting climate changes following RCP8.5, in line with

Figure 6.1 Annual temperature for Norway as deviation (in °C) from the mean of the reference period 1971–2000.

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Black curve shows observations (1900–2014), while blue and red curves show median values for the ensemble of ten RCM simulations for emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. All curves are smoothed by low-pass filtering. Shading indicates spread between low and high climate simulation (10^th and 90^th percentile). The box plots on the right show values averaged over 2071–2100 for both scenarios.

the national guidelines that assessment of climate change impact is to be based on a precautionary approach. However, if future global greenhouse gas emissions are reduced significantly (e.g., following RCP2.6), projections show that the expected changes in climate parameters will be significantly smaller.

6.2.1.2 Air temperature

The projections indicate warming in all parts of Norway and during all seasons.⁴ The annual mean temperature for Norway (Figure 6.1) is estimated to increase by 4.5 (3.3–6.4) °C towards the end of this century under the high emission scenario RCP8.5. For the Norwegian mainland, the greatest change in annual mean temperature is estimated for the northern parts of Norway, where the warming is 6,1 °C by the end of the century. For Western Norway, the estimated warming is lower, with a median value close to the global average estimate of 3,7 °C.

A general trend is that the projected warming is stronger for the winter (DJF) than for the summer (JJA) season. This trend is more pronounced inland than along the coast, more pronounced in the north than in the south and more pronounced for RCP8.5 than for RCP4.5.

Figure 6.2 Annual precipitation over Norway as deviation (in per cent) from the reference period 1971–2000.

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Black curve represents observations (1900–2014), while blue and red curves show median values for the ensemble of ten RCM simulations for emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. All curves are smoothed. Shading indicates the spread between low and high climate simulation (10^th and 90^th percentile). The box plots on the right show values averaged over 2071–2100 for both scenarios.

6.2.1.3 Growing season

The growing season, defined as the number of days with an average temperature above 5 °C, is expected to become considerably longer over the course of this century.⁴ Calculations show a one to two-month increase in large parts of the inland areas and a two to three-months increase in coastal areas and in a zone between the coast and the inland region.

The total area (not only area used for agricultural purposes) with a growing season longer than six months is projected to increase from about 37 000 km² in the reference period (1971–2000) to 165.000 km² by the end of the century (2071–2100).

6.2.1.4 Days with zero crossings

Days with zero crossings are days where the 2 m minimum temperature is below 0 °C and the 2 m maximum temperature exceeds 0 °C.17

The number of days with zero crossings is projected to increase in cold regions and seasons, while decreasing in mild regions and seasons.⁴ More frequent zero-crossings are projected for inland regions in winter and for Finnmark County in spring, indicating more frequent icing of the snowpack and the need for winter road maintenance.

6.2.1.5 Precipitation

Amounts of annual precipitation averaged over the Norwegian mainland is projected to increase by 18 per cent towards the end of this century (Figure 6.2).⁴ The projections indicate increases in all seasons, except a small projected decrease in summer precipitation in the southernmost part of the country.

Heavy rainfall is defined as the 99.5^th percentile for 24-hour precipitation, i.e. the amount of rainfall that is expected to be exceeded approximately twice a year on an annual basis. The projections indicate an increase of days with heavy rainfall for all season and all regions. For the Norwegian mainland, an 89 per cent increase is projected by the end of this century, with the largest increase in the winter season.

However, due to the large variation between projections, it cannot be ruled out that the number of days with heavy rainfall will more than double by the end of the century. In addition, it is expected that the actual amount of rainfall on such days will increase with approximately 10 to 20 per cent. This also applies to all seasons and regions.

In general, such increases in both amount and frequency, are even higher when assessing intense short-duration rainfall (up to 3 hours).

6.2.1.6 Wind speed

The projections from climate models indicate small changes in average, as well for high, wind speeds throughout Norway towards the end of this century.⁴ However, some model results indicate that adverse wind conditions may become more frequent.

6.2.1.7 Runoff, floods and droughts

The annual runoff from the Norwegian mainland is estimated to increase, but to a lesser degree than annual precipitation as evapotranspiration also will increase.⁴ The largest relative changes are expected in the winter (large increase due to increased precipitation that falls as rain) and in the summer (large decrease caused by earlier snowmelt in mountainous regions and higher evapotranspiration losses).

In general, trends towards a later snow accumulation and an earlier snowmelt have already been observed. These observed changes are expected to continue in the future. For the high emission scenario RCP8.5, the snow season can become one to more than six months shorter.

Future changes in flood magnitudes have been analysed for 115 rivers in Norway.18 The results show that the magnitude of change strongly depends on the emission scenario, but the direction of change is the same. We can expect rain flood magnitudes to increase and snowmelt flood magnitudes to decrease. In many areas, this is also associated with a change in seasonality. More frequent and intense rainfall events may in the future give special challenges in small steep rivers and urban areas all over the country.

Higher temperatures causing earlier snowmelt and higher evaporation losses during the summer season may lead to reduced river flow, more severe soil moisture deficits and lower groundwater levels even in regions where summer precipitation is expected to increase. This will result in more severe summer droughts.

6.2.1.8 Landslides and avalanches

Landslides are separated into earth slides (including flood slides), rockslides and quick clay slides. Avalanches are – depending on the water content in the snow – separated into dry and wet snow avalanches and slush slides.

Figure 6.3

Figure 6.4 Relative change (in per cent) in the 200-year flood from the reference period 1971–2000 to the end of the century period 2071–2100.

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Left and right panels show projections following the intermediate emission scenario RCP4.5 and the high emission scenario RCP8.5, respectively. Green indicates a reduction and blue an increase in flood magnitude.

Landslides and avalanches mostly occur in steep terrain (except quick clay slides), but weather is one of the main triggering factors, and hence, climate change will affect their frequency. In particular, we can expect more wet snow avalanches and earth, flood and slush slides.⁴

6.2.1.9 Glaciers

Expected climate change under the high emission scenario RCP8.5 will have a large impact on the area and volume of glaciers in Norway towards the end of the century.⁴

For larger glaciers, a reduction of up to 2/3 of the area and volume currently covered is expected, such that remaining glaciers will be significantly smaller and only found at higher altitudes. The smaller glaciers will disappear (completely melt).

6.2.1.10 Sea level rise and storm surges

Regional sea level projections based on IPCC AR5 show that, for all emission scenarios, the majority of Norway will likely experience a sea level rise over this century (Figure 6.4).⁵ For the high emission scenario RCP8.5, the model average projected sea level for 2081–2100 is between 0.15 and 0.55 m, depending on location. Geographic differences in projected sea level largely reflect differences in land uplift. By the end of this century, the spread of projections shows rates of relative sea level rise may approach or exceed 1 cm per year.

Figure 6.5 Projections (model average) of changes in relative sea level in Norway from 1986–2005 to 2081–2100 for a) the low emission scenario RCP2.6, b) the intermedia emission scenario RCP4.5 and c) the high emission scenario RCP8.5.

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Future sea level rise will cause an increase in the height of extreme sea level events (e.g. storm surges). Owing to this, coastal areas already exposed to storm surges will experience a large increase in the frequency of inundation. Climate change can also cause changes to the nature of storm surges themselves, for example, due to changes in storminess and/or waves. Projections of storm surge changes are in general of low confidence, but the projections available suggest a weak increase in future storm surge heights along the Norwegian coast.

Figure 6.6

Figure 6.7 Spatial distribution of trends in March temperature (in °C) at the ocean (first row) surface and (second row) bottom, (third row) March sea ice concentration (in proper fractions), and (fourth row) annual means of pH at intermediate ocean depths (-) for (left column) SSP1-2.6, (middle column) SSP2-4.5, and (right column) SSP5-8.5 during the period 2015–2100.

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6.2.2 Climate change in Norwegian waters

6.2.2.1 Introduction

In 2022, the Institute of Marine Research (IMR) and the Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA) published two reports describing projections of climate change for Norwegian waters over the 21^st century. These covered the Norwegian sea (the Barents, Norwegian and North seas)19 and coastal20 regions, respectively.

The projections are based on dynamical and statistical downscaling of global climate model results from IPCCs Sixth Assessment Report (2021/2022), providing results for three different emission scenarios: the low emission scenario SSP1-2.6, the intermediate emission scenario SSP2-4.5 and the high emission scenario SSP5-8.5. The three scenarios follow rather divergent paths with regards to emissions and radiation impulses, with corresponding peaks at very different times.

6.2.2.2 Ocean sea temperature and acidification

The two first rows of panels in Figure 6.5 show the spatial trends in temperature at the ocean surface and bottom in March for the three emission scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 during the period 2015–2100.¹⁰ While the ocean temperature trends are relatively modest in SSP1-2.6, they reach values of around 4 °C at the surface in the north-eastern parts of the Barents Sea and even higher in the Greenland Sea close to the West Spitsbergen Current in SSP5-8.5.

This warming is reflected in the sea ice extent, which is almost completely gone in SSP5-8.5 by the end of the century (third row and third column panel in Figure 6.5). Correspondingly, the largest negative trends in pH are also found in the Barents Sea region, with about -0.3 (-) at intermediate depths in its eastern parts (fourth row of panels in Figure 6.5).

6.2.2.3 Coastal sea temperature and acidification

Trends in temperature and pH for the Norwegian coastal region generally reflect those of the Norwegian ocean regions; that is, distinct warming and acidification over the 21^st century, with higher trends for higher emissions scenarios.¹¹

In particular, temperatures are expected to increase across all regions (first column of panels in Figure 6.6). Warming varies between 1 °C in SSP1-2.6 and 4 °C in SSP5-8.5.

pH will decrease overall, with the largest drop possibly occurring in Southern Norway (second column of panels in Figure 6.6). While there is relatively little change across regions, there are large differences across scenarios. The SSP5-8.5 scenario would lead to dangerously low values by 2100 that would be detrimental for many marine species.

Coastal oxygen values remain relatively high across all regions, although there is a decreasing trend in dissolved oxygen (third column of panels in Figure 6.6). This reflects trends seen in global climate assessments.21

Figure 6.8 Projections of (left column) temperature (in °C), (middle column) pH (right column) and oxygen (in ml/L) averaged for four regions within the 24 nm zone – the Northern (68-73°N), Middle (64-69°N), Western (60-65°N), and Southern (55-61°N) Norway.

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Thick lines show annual averaged values for each of the three emission scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, while shaded colours indicate the 95^th percentile uncertainty across the global climate models.

6.3 Vulnerability to climate change and expected impacts on society and nature

6.3.1 Introduction

According to the committee that conducted the vulnerability assessment in NOU 2010: 10 Adapting to a changing climate, Norway is in a good position to adapt to climate change. Future vulnerability, however, will depend on the extent to which climate change considerations are incorporated into planning and decision-making processes in all areas and all levels of society. The committee considered that the degree of vulnerability varies between different areas of society. Climate affects all areas of society, but in different ways, to different extents and at different timescales. In the committee’s assessment of the various areas of society, vulnerability has been considered based on how exposed the area is and its adaptive capacity.

Exposure to climate change was assessed based on climate projections, other research results and contributions from people involved in the sectors. Adaptive capacity was evaluated in the light of the sector’s organisational structure, resources, knowledge base and priorities. The interaction between these factors was also an important part of the assessment. The review showed that vulnerability is not just dependent on the exposure to climate change; it is also very closely linked to the adaptive capacities in various areas.

The committee concluded that the natural environment, infrastructure and buildings – in particular water and sewage – are especially vulnerable to climate change in Norway. The impact varies between regions and types of terrain. The nature of the exposure varies between the coast and the interior, between Northern Norway and Southern Norway, and between steep, mountainous areas and low-lying, flat areas.

The committee considered the north and alpine areas to be especially vulnerable to climate change. Part of the Sámi population in the north derives its livelihood from natural resources, and Sámi culture is, therefore, vulnerable to the impact of climate change on nature.

In 2019, existing knowledge on consequences of climate change in Norway was compiled, documenting important developments in since the NOU was published in 2010.22 Among the conclusions, the report finds that:

• knowledge on how the climate in Norway is expected to change, has been improved since 2010, through the establishment of the Norwegian Climate service centre in 2013;
• climate change in other countries will possibly impact many sectors in Norway;
• the Norwegian society’s capacity to adapt has been strengthened since 2010, through changes in laws and regulations, a great increase in production of knowledge, guidance, coordination and, to some extent, resources;
• despite an increase in the production of knowledge, there are still challenges related to translating knowledge into useful information for local level practitioners; and
• national authorities’ work on adaptation has increased significantly since 2010, but the efforts are varying across different sectors.

Climate change may intensify existing problems and create new ones. On the other hand, opportunities for business development and advantages for local communities may also emerge.

Climate change is expected to have a major impact on ecosystems and increase the overall strain on the environment. The environment is affected in various ways by human activities through land and resource utilization, transport and pollution. These activities and climate change affect ecosystems separately and in combination, and in some cases, they are mutually reinforcing. The vulnerability of an ecosystem is a result of the integral impact of the numerous stress factors.

Ecosystems adapt continuously to climate variability. This takes place, among others, through changes in the distribution of species and through natural selection over generations. One challenge of a changing climate is that changes may manifest themselves faster than ecosystems and species are able to adapt. Adaptation through natural selection is particularly challenging for species with small populations and a low genetic variation. In addition, fragmentation and changes in land use may create barriers that prevent species from migrating to new areas.

Certain local communities that are not currently at risk for landslides, avalanches and floods, may face these risks in the future, but in general, climate change may enhance existing challenges. To some extent, these recurring themes take on different guises in different sectors, but they challenge adaptive capacity across sector boundaries.

The municipalities are Norway’s local administrative level and have the overall responsibility for development planning and provision of services within their geographical catchment areas. Many municipal responsibilities will be affected by climate change, and plans and decisions adopted by municipalities today will have consequences for many decades.

6.3.2 Nature and ecosystems

6.3.2.1 Terrestrial ecosystems

The Norwegian Red List for Species 2021 shows that climate change is negatively affecting 211 of the 2752 threatened species in Norway. The Norwegian Red List for Ecosystems and Habitat Types from 2018 lists climate change as a negative factor for 35 of the 75 threatened nature types. Alpine and tundra ecosystems are regarded as particularly vulnerable to climate change. Climate change causes the tree line and vegetation zones to creep upwards, which in turn affects species in the mountains. For alpine species, there is a risk that there will no longer be any suitable natural habitats to migrate to and that some species will become extinct. This applies for example to the Arctic fox, wild reindeer and alpine plants. Competition from new species will also pose a threat, such as the red fox, which migrates to alpine areas and competes with the Arctic fox. The tree line moving ever higher reduces the number of continuous alpine areas, which will particularly affect the alpine species dependent on large, continuous alpine areas, such as wild reindeer. This will happen at the same time as pressure increases in alpine areas owing to land use and other human activity. Red listed species that are threatened in Norway because they are at their northerly distribution limits, may, however, become less threatened.

The growing season is expected to become longer and warmer. An assessment from 2022 on the impacts of climate change on the forest ecosystems in Norway shows that, in the short term, this may result in faster growth and primary production, a rise in the proportion of trees that prefer a warmer climate and changes in the species composition of forests with broadleaf species replacing pine and spruce in the south.23 Rising temperatures may also result in the northward and upward spread of forest. Climate change is, however, also expected to result in increased damage by factors such as storms, pest outbreaks, droughts and forest fires. Such factors can pose serious threats to forest health, vitality and productivity, and by the end of the century, such negative effects of climate change may supersede the positive effects on forest growth and productivity.

Some cultural landscape systems, such as species-rich hay meadows and grazed grasslands, are vulnerable to increased production. Many cultural landscapes are already threatened by re-growth due to abandonment, and increased growth will accelerate this process.

In Norway, wetlands, especially bogs, have also been exposed to major human encroachment, such as drainage for agricultural purposes, forestry, harvesting of firewood and peat moss, as well as other developments. Climate change represents a new factor that is threatening wetlands, in addition to other threats. This applies in particular to Southern and Eastern Norway, where one expects higher temperature and less precipitation in summer, and to certain types of wetlands, such as palsa mires, which may melt in a warmer climate. Increased precipitation in other parts of the country may lead to an increase in wetland areas.

Conditions for invasive alien species also change with climate change. At present, many invasive alien species are not able to survive the cold winter conditions in large parts of Norway. With the milder winters expected in the future, more of the harmful species will be able to survive and spread.

6.3.2.2 Fresh water ecosystems

The effects of climate change on the freshwater ecosystem are many and complex, and they will have impact on production, biomass, life cycles and species composition. Together with an increase in extreme precipitation events and flooding, this will result in more runoff, transport of particulate matter and leaching of nutrients and other pollutants. Higher erosion rates along riverbanks and runoff of particulate matter and nutrients from farmland may become a greater problem, and such tendencies have already been registered in smaller rivers in Eastern Norway. Particulate matter and pollutants are transported downstream to coastal waters, adding to the overall environmental pressure on marine ecosystems.

The ice-free season will be longer, the water temperature will increase and the thermal vertical stratification in the lakes will increase. In parts of Norway, prolonged periods of summer drought and low stream flow are expected. For vulnerable fish species, such as salmon, trout and Arctic char and grayling, temperatures exceeding 20–25 ºC could be critical. Regulated rivers with low residual flows may be particularly exposed.

Climate change-induced alterations in habitats may force fish and other aquatic organisms to adapt by moving to other parts of the watercourses where water quantity, quality and temperature remain suitable. The high number of man-made barriers can prevent this migration, representing an obstacle to this adaptation approach.

6.3.2.3 Marine ecosystems

In marine and coastal waters, climate change will result in higher temperatures, and a higher CO₂ content in sea water will lead to ocean acidification (Figure 6.6). Warmer waters can hold less oxygen, which combined impacts marine species habitat suitability. This in turn may cause serious impacts on marine ecosystems. In addition to an increase in mean global ocean temperature, the frequency of extreme temperature events – a phenomenon called marine heat waves – are expected to increase further depending on developments in greenhouse gas emissions.24 Marine heatwaves have many measurable negative effects on marine habitats, e.g. harmful algae blooms, mass deaths among seabirds and fish species found hundreds of miles from their traditional habitats.

A large proportion of CO₂ of anthropogenic origin is absorbed by the oceans, where it reacts with water to form carbonic acid. Ocean acidification will result in changes in the seas’ ability to precipitate calcium carbonate, on which calciferous organisms depend. This problem increases at great depths with high pressure and low temperatures. It implies that Norwegian waters and especially the Polar Regions are particularly exposed and will be impacted before more temperate regions. Calciferous organisms include coralline algae, phytoplankton, zooplankton, crustaceans, molluscs and corals.

There are many cold-water coral reefs in Norwegian waters, including the world’s largest known cold-water coral reef complex, The Røst Reef.25 Coral reefs are among the most species-rich ecosystems and are a vital habitat for many types of fish. Ocean acidification has negative impacts on these ecosystems, and by the end of this century, cold water coral reefs and associated ecosystems in Norwegian waters exposed to corrosive waters will be threatened26 and are expected to show signs of erosion. Phytoplankton, such as calciferous flagellates, form the basis of marine ecosystems, and the zooplankton that graze on them, are essential food for many fish species. As plankton species with calcareous skeletons may not survive in more acidic seawater, the acidification can have major impacts on many trophic levels.

Higher temperatures can result in a more northwards distribution of a number of species, such as kelp and mackerel that are temperature limited. Owing to its great depths, the Norwegian Sea is a key area for the production of copepods (zooplankton). They represent an important food source for fish larvae and juveniles of the large boreal fish stocks, such as herring and cod. In the North Sea, abundance of the copepod Calanus finmarchicus have dropped drastically as the sea temperature has risen over the last decades;27 at the same time, the quantities of a plankton species that prefers higher temperatures, have increased, e.g. Pseudocalanus. However, this species is less nutritious. A decline in C. finmarchicus and an increase in plankton species that spawn later in the season, may result in a mismatch between spring-spawning fish and their prey. The presence of plankton exerts a strong impact on fish recruitment and can – in a year of mismatch –have cascading effects on the rest of the marine food web. This includes effects on seabird breeding success and the presence of herring and marine mammals. A study has shown that seabirds, unlike many other marine animals at lower trophic levels, have not shifted their breeding season in response to climate change.28 Thus, a warmer ocean can result in breeding failure in seabirds. Detailed consequences to the ecosystems and particular species are, however, yet to be well known.

Along with a more northwards distribution of copepods, the southern boundary for boreal fish species is expected to move northwards. Species such as cod, haddock, herring and mackerel may have their migration patterns disturbed and experience changes in their habitat suitability. However, it is expected that, in the 21^st century, several temperate and subtropical fish species, such as sardine, anchovy, European bass and tuna, may become common in the North Sea. In the Arctic, fish species such as Arctic char and polar cod may disappear from parts of the Barents Sea since they primarily feed on the Arctic zooplankton whose natural habitat is along the ice edge.

Overall, it is very uncertain how the changes will affect species composition, fish stocks and total production in marine ecosystems.

Seabirds along the coast are subject to a range of different pressures, many of which are caused by intended or unintended human activity: oil pollution; competition withfisheries; climate change (including increasing sea temperatures);marine litter; persistent organic pollutants; introduced predators; habitat degradation; and disturbance by people. Many seabird populations have shown a dramatic decline in recent years. Moreover, a number of seabirds are specialised feeders, which makes them particularly sensitive to climate change and changes in the availability of prey species such as sandeels, herring and capelin.

6.3.3 Human life and health

6.3.3.1 Civil protection and emergency planning

The exact scope, severity and pace of future climate change impacts are difficult to predict; still, climate change will affect societal safety. Specific examples of this include:

• Increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events, such as storms, floods and droughts, will threaten human lives and health, material assets and vital societal functions.
• Both changed extreme weather events and a gradual change in the average climate will increase the vulnerability of critical infrastructure.

Global effects of climate change can have an indirect impact on societal safety in Norway. For example, intensifying droughts or floods can result in food insecurity, economic collapse and human suffering, which in turn may lead to cross-border migration and the spread of harmful organisms.Climate change will thus challenge society’s ordinary emergency management capacity.

6.3.3.2 Health

A warmer climate may affect public health directly and indirectly in a number of ways. The main effect will be the intensified health risks posed by today’s climate.

The quality of drinking and recreational water may become poorer, increasing the risk of waterborne infections. In general terms, the impacts can be split into two categories: impacts on the raw water and water treatment plants; and impacts on the distribution infrastructure. Challenges related to the maintenance backlog of the water supply infrastructure in Norway may pose increased health risks. Vector, food and water-borne infections are among the commonest infections in Norway and are considered to be particularly sensitive to climate change.

The prevalence of communicable diseases may increase as conditions become more suitable for infective agents such as ticks and mosquitoes. A longer and more intense pollen season may aggravate the symptoms of people who suffer from allergic diseases. Climate-related changes in exposure to indoor and outdoor air pollution may affect the risk of developing asthma and allergies. A warmer climate, on the other hand, may also have positive consequences for asthmatics by reducing the negative effects of cold air and respiratory infections.

Heat waves (five days or more with a maximum temperature of 28 °C or more, and the minimum temperature is not lower than 16 °C) increase the health risks. Extreme temperatures increase the risks of cardiovascular disease and lung disease. Elderly, young children and people with certain diseases are the groups most prone to suffer under extreme heat.

The climate changes pose several mental health risks: For example, the direct effects of acute events and disasters leading to trauma, shock and possible long-term effects are obvious. Reduced air quality and increased temperatures may be associated with anxiety, increased incidence of schizophrenia, more aggression and impaired cognitive function. Poorer air quality due to warming can have negative consequences for cognitive function, lead to reduced quality of life and also impair cognitive development in children

The connection between societal inequality and climate changes is complex: Certain social groups are more vulnerable to crises, and this is the case with the climate crisis as well. Already marginalized or exposed and vulnerable groups, for example those with the lowest socio-economic background and/or with an underlying illness, will be hardest hit.29 Although, economic inequality in Norway is low compared to other countries, societal inequality has increased since the 1980s. As in several other countries, climate changes may lead to reduced access to healthy affordable food and water in Norway, as well as increased energy prices. Vulnerable societal groups will suffer the most from these.

Climate change coincides with unsustainable use of natural resources, destruction of habitats, increased urbanisation and social inequality. Transitioning toward equitable, low-carbon societies may have multiple benefits for health and wellbeing. Benefits for health and wellbeing can be gained from wide-spread, equitable access to affordable renewable energy; active transport; green buildings and nature-based solutions, such as green and blue urban infrastructure, and by transitioning to a low-carbon, wellbeing-oriented and equity-oriented economy consistent with the aims of the Sustainable Development Goals.30 Compound weather and climate events refer to a combination of drivers and/or hazards that contributes to societal and environmental risk. This compound events represent a severe threat: Droughts may occur simultaneously with heat waves, which increase the risk of wildfires, which again increase air pollution. The four events all have negative health effects. The compound events must be taken into considerations in future risk assessments.31

Climate change may also have indirect impacts on health if, for example, medical transport services are blocked by disruptions to transport or other critical infrastructure due to extreme weather events. However, climate change is not expected to cause any great changes in mortality in Norway.

6.3.3.3 Infrastructure and buildings

Infrastructure is affected by climate, and through direct exposure to the weather, the infrastructure will be exposed to climate change such as increased precipitation, temperature and frequencies of natural hazards. The vulnerability of infrastructures varies, but the need for maintenance will be a major common challenge in connection with climate change.

In snow rich climates, knowledge of the weight from snow on building is very important for the design of buildings. Changes in the snow load due to climate change might lead to adjustments of the national standards on snow load.

At the same time, different types of infrastructure are mutually dependent, further increasing their vulnerability. For example, power supply is essential for the functioning of all the other socially important infrastructures, and a functioning telecommunications network is necessary for a stable power supply. In the event of any disruption in power supply, there is a dependency on the transport system and a functioning telecommunication system to perform efficient repairs and restoration of the supply. This mutual dependency increases vulnerability to climate change, making society even more vulnerable.

Vulnerability to climate change varies between different infrastructure areas. According to NOU 2010: 10 Adapting to a changing climate, the power supply has a relatively high adaptive capacity, which counters the fact that the sector is highly exposed to climate change. The overall vulnerability is, therefore, relatively low. Careful spatial planning and sustainable urban drainage systems, where the focus is to manage stormwater locally, as close to the source as possible, remain a key strategy to avoid damage to buildings and infrastructure due to excessive runoff. The adaptive capacity of the water utility sector is, in the opinion of the NOU committee, low, and the vulnerability is correspondingly high. The assessments of the transport sector and buildings provide a more complex picture of adaptive capacity and vulnerability.

A backlog in maintenance is a shared challenge for large portions of the infrastructure and buildings. Climate change will increase the need for water sensitive spatial planning, continuous maintenance and increase the challenges related to the maintenance backlog, which is particularly true for transport, buildings, water supply and urban wastewater services.

Increased precipitation, exposure to moisture and changes in the wind patterns are the key climate variables that determine a building’s vulnerability. Moisture problems resulting from more frequent and more intense precipitation will be the greatest threat in a changed climate. The effect of moisture is reinforced by rising sea levels, increased and more intense precipitation and increased floods, landslides and avalanches in a changed climate.

The risk of rot in exterior wood constructions above ground is dependent to a great extent on local climate conditions. More parts of the country will be exposed owing to climate change. Health effects due to moisture and subsequent increased mould growth pose health risks: Moisture and mould in indoor environments increases the risk of worsening and/or development of a number of allergies and respiratory disorders. The health impact appears to be of both allergic and non-allergic nature

Longer periods of drought in the warmer season can lower the infiltration capacity through the soil surface. This will increase runoff when exposed to intense precipitation. Drought conditions will also dry out grasses and trees, which will become more flammable and again be a treat to buildings.

Milder winters can lead to more episodes of freezing and thawing, which again will lower the infiltration capacity due to more ice on the frozen ground.

More extreme events, such as storm surges, landslides, avalanches and floods, will entail a risk to buildings in exposed locations. Some locations that are already exposed may become even more exposed, and new locations may become exposed. Rising sea levels in combination with storm surges will increase the risk of floods in coastal settlements

6.3.3.4 Transport

The challenges related to the maintenance backlog will intensify with climate change. Road and railway transport are exposed to natural hazards. Greater probability of floods, landslides and avalanches entails a traffic safety hazard and may increase the frequency of disruptions. Greater precipitation volumes will result in an increased strain on drainage systems. Rising sea levels and storm surges may create problems linked to wave erosion and overflow, which may result in erosion damage and traffic disruptions. This is especially relevant for sub-sea tunnels. Furthermore, increased amounts of water will expose road fill and bridge foundations to more strain and erosion.

The maritime infrastructure – in the form of waterways, navigation guidance (aids to navigation), harbours and the infrastructure in harbours (quays, etc.) – is vital for sea transport. This infrastructure is exposed to changes in sea levels, increased ocean acidification, storm surge levels and generally harsher weather effects. Climate change will increase the strain and weathering on maritime infrastructure.

All Norwegian airports will be affected to varying degrees and in different ways by climate change. Climate affects both air traffic and the physical infrastructure. Many Norwegian airports are located near the coast on flat or reclaimed land near the sea or open water, making them vulnerable to impacts from higher sea levels, storms and storm surges. In addition, increased humidity and more frequent days with zero crossings (c.f. section 6.2.1.4 Days with zero crossings) will cause challenging conditions. Safety zones, lighting facilities and buildings at several airports could be exposed to erosion and will be vulnerable to climate change. Increased precipitation can make draining of runoff water more important and demanding, which will demand more efficient infrastructure. More frequent temperature variations around 0 °C will be an additional challenge in some places with regards to controlling the friction conditions on runways and taxiways. It will also lead to increased use of de-icing fluids.

6.3.3.5 Water and wastewater systems

Without climate change adaptation and proper maintenance, climate change will increase the risk of disruptions in drinking water and urban wastewater treatment services. A disruption in the water supply will quickly affect private households and the business community, and a disruption of wastewater treatment services can have serious consequences for human health and the environment.

Many drinking water and wastewater treatment plants are located near rivers and along the coast. The location could potentially cause disruption due to risk of floods, flood slides, rising sea levels and storm surges.

Heavy rain can create problems for existing storm water drainage systems and increase the risk of drinking water pipes becoming immersed in contaminated water.

Higher temperatures combined with greater precipitation and runoff intensity may have negative effects on raw water quality. More erosion from the catchment areas may lead to an increased prevalence of infectious matter, environmental toxins, nutrients and organic matter in the raw water.

Fluctuating temperatures above and below 0 °C may cause unstable ground and lead to more disruptions to underground water and wastewater pipes.

6.3.3.6 Urban storm water

In this context, storm water refers to runoff due to precipitation or meltwater in urban areas. Climate projections indicate a higher frequency of more intense precipitation events in Norway and potentially more storm water runoff and consequently more urban flooding. This may cause serious damage to buildings and other infrastructure. NOU 2010: 10 Adapting to a changing climate stresses that climate change, with higher total precipitation and more frequent intense precipitation events, will make urban storm water management more imminent. NOU 2015: 16 Storm water runoff in towns and cities – As problem and a resource underlines this.

Urban areas contain a high proportion of impermeable surfaces, such as car parks, roads, yards and pavements, which prevent storm water from infiltrating naturally into the ground. Urban storm water has traditionally been channelled through dual wastewater treatment systems or in separate storm water drains that may discharge directly into nearby river systems. Today storm water management also involves other measures such as green infrastructure.

Failure to manage storm water properly is already resulting in several incidents of damage. During intense rainfall, the volume of storm water entering the sewer system may exceed the system’s capacity, leading to mixed sewage and stormwater overflows. The overflows consist of untreated wastewater and discharge directly to the sea or a water course. The discharges can contaminate beaches and drinking water and pose a risk to public health and the environment. Excessive volumes of storm water can also flood buildings, cause damage to infrastructure and contaminate drinking water, resulting in substantial costs and possibly threatening life and health.

6.3.3.7 Power supply

Norway’s power supply is primarily based on renewable energy, dominated by hydropower, making it directly impacted by climate change. Climate change will lead to increased precipitation but also increased evapotranspiration due to increased temperatures. Even if the magnitude of the increase is very uncertain, the hydropower production potential is expected to increase.

River flow is expected to increase more in winter and could be reduced in summer because of earlier snowmelt and increased evapotranspiration. A detailed study of climate change effects on the hydropower system in the Glomma river basin indicates increased hydropower generation capacity in the autumn and winter.32 In rivers with glacier runoff, the hydropower production potential in summer is expected to increase towards the middle of the century and decrease again towards 2100. The runoff river hydropower plants will benefit the most from the river flow becoming more evenly distributed over the year. Still, some years will have more drought. This will result in lower production of electricity.

The power supply system is designed to withstand climate and natural disasters. However, hydropower structures may be challenged in case of extreme floods. Floods are expected to increase in most parts of Norway, causing possible extra strain on many hydropower dams.33 the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) has made a vulnerability assessment of the exposed dams, showing that 45 per cent of the dams in the highest consequence classes (2, 3 and 4) may be vulnerable to increased floods in the future.34 NVE recommends that all dam owners take account of future increased floods when planning new or upgrading existing dams. NVE has done a portfolio risk assessment to be able to follow up the safety of the dams with the highest risk. Weather conditions are a major cause of the faults and disruptions that occur in the distribution system, including regional and national grids, e.g. caused by trees falling over and cutting the power lines. Expected increases in extreme weather events will increase the risk of damage at various types of power supply infrastructure unless appropriate climate change adaptation measures are implemented.

6.3.3.8 Cultural heritage

Rising sea levels, increased storm surges and increased coastal erosion are a threat to coastal settlement and cultural heritage objects in vulnerable areas. More precipitation and increased moisture will lead to more rot and fungal growth in historic buildings. All building materials are exposed to degradation over time, and climate conditions are crucial to how fast this will take place. Most materials break down faster in a warmer and more humid climate.

In addition to the gradual changes that take place over a long period of time, climate change will cause more extremes, more storm water, landslides, erosion and more floods that can cause acute damage to historical buildings and other cultural monuments.

The growth season for plants and trees is extended when the climate gets warmer and wetter, creating greater challenges for owners and managers of cultural monuments and landscapes.

6.3.4 Businesses and other industries

6.3.4.1 Introduction

Climate change in Norway will have a direct impact on industries that base their activities on natural resources, such as agriculture, forestry, reindeer husbandry, fishing and aquaculture. Other businesses and industries may be indirectly affected by vulnerabilities in other sectors, such as interrupted power supply or through value chains that stretch both nationally and internationally.35 Utilising the opportunities that may emerge will also require adaptive measures to enable these opportunities to be realised.

6.3.4.2 Agriculture, forestry and reindeer husbandry

In areas where lower summer precipitation does not produce a soil moisture deficit, the combination of a longer growing season and higher CO₂ content in the air will allow the forest to grow more quickly. In addition, the productive forests will expand both to higher altitudes and northwards throughout the country. There will be significant regional differences, with forests in Southern and Eastern Norway potentially facing drought stress and, during a transition period, it appears that the growing season in the interior of Finnmark and Troms County may become somewhat shorter.

The largest threat to the continued health and vitality of Norwegian forests will be increasing attacks by native pests, as well as non-native organisms that may be able to establish viable populations in Norway as a result of climate change.

Without ground frost for much of the year and with less snow cover, operating conditions will become more difficult using existing technology. Forest roads could be exposed to erosion and landslides due to surface water, clogged gutters and the water taking new paths.

The main pattern in climate projections for Norwegian agriculture is higher temperatures and precipitation. Increases in rainfall may cause problems to field operations, like thinning and harvesting. Increase in evapotranspiration as a result of higher summer temperatures may, however, also cause drought in certain periods. In addition to such changes in abiotic factors, new pests and diseases may arise that reduce productivity in plant production as well as animal husbandry.

Climate change may also result in more damage caused by freeze–thaw cycles, changes in wind patterns, heightened fire risk due to drought and increased erosion as a result of more precipitation, with a risk of nutrients being washed out of the soil, causing environmental stresses. Climate change also has impact on the conditions for reindeer husbandry.

The impact of climate change on reindeer husbandry is already noticeable, and based on the climate forecasts, it will increase sharply towards 2100 as a result of, for example, rising temperatures, more precipitation and a longer growing season. In recent years, grazing crisis has occurred more often, which not only affects animal welfare but also leads to extra work for the reindeer herder and increased costs associated with additional feeding as a result of locked pastures.

6.3.4.3 Fisheries and aquaculture

The Norwegian fisheries and aquaculture generate significant export revenues, and Norway is one of the world’s leading exporters of fish and seafood products. There is uncertainty linked to various aspects of climate change and the potential consequences for the marine environment. The fishing fleet has very high adaptive capacity since the ocean-going fishing fleet has an extensive range. The traditional coastal fleet, on the other hand, may be more exposed to climate change owing to its more limited range or potential change of target species.

Climate change along the Norwegian coastline will reflect the changes that are expected to occur in the open sea. Coastal areas and the continental shelf are important spawning grounds for many fish stocks on which climate change may have an impact. Several of the coastal cod stocks have declined significantly over the past decades. A number of factors are probably involved in this, one of which may be climate change. A plan for rebuilding coastal cod stocks has already been adopted. A combination of higher water temperature, eutrophication and sediment deposition explains the loss of sugar kelp forests (important as a nursery area for coastal cod and other species) from many areas along the Skagerrak coast and the south-western coast of Norway.36^,37

Climate change will have a number of impacts on wild stocks of anadromous salmonids at different stages of their life cycle. A higher water temperature may result in changes in the numbers and distribution of important prey species for anadromous salmonids in coastal waters and the open sea and of disease organisms and parasites, such as sea lice. On the other hand, higher precipitation will increase water flow in rivers and the freshwater content in the coastal zone. This may improve conditions for juvenile salmonids in rivers and reduce the impacts of salmon lice. It is important to maintain the genetic diversity in the wild salmon populations, among other ways by reducing the genetic interaction between farmed salmon and wild salmon, as this makes the species and the various populations more robust for changes in the living environment brought about by climate change. Higher precipitation will also result in more runoff from land, which may lead to sediment deposition and pollution and subsequently to more frequent algal blooms, sometimes of toxic algae.

Higher sea temperatures may cause a shift in the distribution of marine organisms, with populations making a general migration northwards. The overall productivity of the boreal species of fish is expected to increase in the northernmost fishing areas, while the productivity of the Arctic species is expected to decline in the same areas.

Overall, climate change over the remainder of the 21^st century may increase fish resources in Norwegian waters. There are, however, two factors that may counteract these predictions. One of them is associated with natural climate variability, which may dominate over anthropogenic climate change and result in a somewhat colder marine climate. The other major uncertainty factor is ocean acidification, a process taking place simultaneously with, and to some extent independently of, climate change. Acidification creates a more hostile environment for calcifying organisms.

Temperature is of vital importance to the aquaculture industry, as it affects factors such as growth rates, algal blooming and disease. In the long term, an increase in sea temperature, therefore, has the potential to result in significant structural changes in terms of the species farmed, the best production areas and siting structure, as well as the occurrence of diseases. Emerging technologies open up for more offshore aquaculture.

The nature of the risk from marine infectious agents (pathogens) will change. The extent to which this will lead to larger problems, as opposed to different problems, remains unclear.

6.3.4.4 Petroleum production

Oil and gas production on the Norwegian continental shelf is significantly affected by the weather and offshore conditions. The technologies used in Norway for both production and support functions are, therefore, designed to withstand significant weather-related impact. Norwegian oil and gas activities are expected to have a continuous natural decline after 2030.

6.3.4.5 Climate risk and the Norwegian economy

NOU 2018: 17 Climate risk and the Norwegian economy states that Norway is a market economy with a large public sector and that the interrelationship between the public and the private sector implies that there is no sharp distinction between climate risk in the two sectors. The commission points to several factors related to the climate risk that can affect the Norwegian economy, among others, that global factors are important to Norway and that climate change will curb worldwide economic growth. Further, the commission consider it likely that moderate climate change will have more of an impact on the composition of Norwegian production than on its level.

6.3.4.6 Insurance

More frequent weather-related and natural damage will both change the risk pattern and stimulate demand for insurance. Climate change will result in a greater need for various insurance policies, among other things, related to health, primary industries, buildings and equipment.

6.4 Adaptation measures

6.4.1 Domestic adaptation policies and strategies

In 2007, an inter-ministerial working group was appointed to promote coordination and dialogue in the national climate adaptation work. The working group was supported by a programme-secretariat that was established in DSB. A committee consisting of experts from government agencies, research institutes and civil society published an NOU on Norway’s vulnerability and adaptive needs in 2010.38 The objective of the report was to facilitate sustainable development through increased knowledge of the significance of climate change for Norway and to provide advice regarding how the authorities and other parties best can proceed to prevent negative impacts from these changes on people, society and the environment.

The Ministry of Climate and Environment has the overall responsibility for the Norwegian climate policy, including climate change adaptation.

The Norwegian Environment Agency supports the Ministry of Climate and Environment in its work on climate change adaptation as the coordinating agency. The agency assists the ministry in following up the white paper Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Climate change adaptation in Norway and in policymaking on climate change adaptation.

6.4.1.1 The national climate change adaptation strategy

Following the NOU, the Norwegian Parliament adopted the first white paper on climate change adaptation in 2013 (Meld. St 33 (2012–2013) Climate change adaptation in Norway), outlining national policies and guidance for adaptation in Norway. The paper provides an overview of the implications of climate change for Norway and sets out a framework to facilitate the development of adaptation strategies and identification of effective adaptation measures across sectors and administrative levels. The white paper upholds that everyone – individuals, business and industry and the authorities – is responsible for assessing and addressing the impacts of climate change on their areas of competence. This means that government agencies and local and regional authorities carry a responsibility for climate change adaptation within their field.

Several actions, measures and principles are presented in the white paper, among other things, that the knowledge for climate change adaptation will be strengthened through closer monitoring of climate change, continued expansion of climate change research and the development of a national centre for climate services.

Further, that knowledge about impacts and consequences of climate change, and adaptation needs in Norway will be updated regularly. Updates will be considered when substantial new knowledge is available, particularly related to the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

It is also stated in the white paper, that as a precautionary approach, assessments of impacts of climate change should be based on figures from the high end of the range of national climate projections. However, when decisions are made in individual cases, climate change considerations and underlying assumptions about the degree of climate change must be weighed against other considerations of the public interest, the lifetime of the development in question and its importance to society.

Moreover, the white paper emphasises the role of the municipalities related to climate change. pointing to the local character of climate change impacts, that puts the municipalities in the front line in dealing with climate change. As a follow-up of actions identified in the strategy, a committee has evaluated legislation related to stormwater, and central government planning guidelines on climate change adaptation came into force in 2018.

The action-points in the strategy has been followed up over the past ten years, and the government has started developing a new strategy for climate change adaptation.

6.4.1.2 Climate change adaptation in other policy documents

In accordance with the principle of responsibility, the issue of climate change adaptation is addressed in several sectoral policy documents published recently. Among these are:

• the Norwegian Official Report NOU (2015: 16) Overvann i byer og tettsteder — Som problem og ressurs (translates to “Storm water runoff in towns and cities — As problem and a resource”, albeit in Norwegian only);
• the Norwegian Official Report NOU (2022: 3) På trygg grunn (translates to “On safe ground”, albeit in Norwegian only);
• the white paper Meld. St. 15 (2011–2012) Hvordan leve med farene, om flom og skred (translates to “How to live with the hazards – floods and landslides”, albeit in Norwegian only);
• the white paper Meld. St. 14 (2015–2016) Nature for life – Norway’s national biodiversity action plan;
• the white paper Meld. St. 18 (2015–2016) Friluftsliv – natur som kilde til helse og livskvalitet (translates to “Outdoor recreation – nature as a source of improved health and life quality”, albeit in Norwegian only);
• the white paper Meld. St. 6 (2016–2017) Verdier I vekst – konkurransedyktig skog- og trenæring (translates to “Values in growth – a competitive forestry and timber industry”, albeit in Norwegian only);
• the white paper Meld. St. 11 (2016–2017) Endring og utvikling – en fremtidsrettet jordbruksproduksjon (translates to “Change and development – a future-oriented agricultural production”, albeit in Norwegian only);
• the white paper Meld. St. 32 (2016–2017) Reindrift. Lang tradisjon, unike muligheter (translates to “Reindeer husbandry. Old tradition – unique opportunities”, albeit in Norwegian only);
• the white paper Meld. St. 33 (2016–2017) National transport plan 2018–2029 (English summary);
• the white paper Meld. St. 19 (2018–2019) Gode liv i eit trygt samfunn (translates to “Good lives in a safe society”, albeit in Norwegian only);
• the white paper Meld. St. 5 (2020–2021) Samfunnssikkerhet i en utrygg verden (translates to “Civil protection in an insecure world”, albeit in Norwegian only);
• the white paper Meld. St. 9 (2020–2021) Mennesker, muligheter og norske interesser i nord (translates to “People, opportunities and Norwegian interests in the Arctic”, with an abstract available in English);
• the white paper Meld. St. 13 (2020–2021) Klimaplan for 2021–2030 (translates to “Climate plan for 2021–2030”, albeit in Norwegian only);
• the white paper Meld. St. 40 (2020–2021) Mål med mening — Norges handlingsplan for å nå bærekraftsmålene innen 2030 (translates to: “Goals with a purpose – Norway’s action plan to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals”, albeit in Norwegian only); and
• the white paper Meld. St. 16 (2021–2022) Samisk språk, kultur og samfunnsliv (translates to “Sami language, culture and community life”, albeit in Norwegian and Sami only).

Several agencies have prepared strategies and action plans addressing climate change adaptation. See further descriptions of concrete actions under section 6.4.4 Implementations and actions.

6.4.1.3 Legislation relevant to climate change adaptation

Climate change adaptation concerns basic social structures, and a number of laws are therefore relevant, including rules on land use planning, contingency legislation, waterway legislation, legislation regulating various types of infrastructure, natural property legislation etc.

Planning is a core tool in the work to meet the challenges related to consequences of climate change. The Planning and Building Act provides the framework for planning in Norway. This framework includes tools and requirements for local, regional and national planning. One such tool is the Central Government Planning Guidelines, which define certain areas of national interest to be implemented in local and regional planning. In 2018, the government adopted new planning guidelines (in Norwegian: “Statlige planretningslinjer for klima- og energiplanlegging og klimatilpasning”) to promote climate change adaption in local and regional planning. An online tool to support the implementation of the guidelines has been developed.

Another tool is the national expectations regarding regional and municipal planning, issued every 4^th year by the Ministry of Local Government and Regional Development. The Planning and Building Act is based on the principle of sustainable development.

The Environmental Impact Assessment framework and various guidelines and policies is revised as of 2017 and ensures that vulnerability due to climate change is included in environmental impact assessments

Pursuant to the Act of 25 June 2010 No. 45 relating to the Municipal Preparedness Duty, Civil Protection Measures and the Norwegian Civil Defence (Civil Protection Act), municipalities have a duty to identify the adverse events that could occur in their municipality, assess the likelihood of these events occurring and assess how they could affect their municipality. The results of this work must also be assessed and compared in a comprehensive risk and vulnerability analysis. Municipalities must draw up contingency plans based on this analysis, have a municipal crisis team and carry out exercises and other skills enhancing measures to ensure they are able to handle adverse events.

In June 2017, the Norwegian Parliament adopted a Climate Change Act, which establishes by law Norway’s emission reduction target for 2030 and 2050. The act will have an overarching function in addition to existing environmental legislation. According to the act, the government shall submit to the Parliament updated information on how Norway prepares for and adapts to climate change.

Within the different sectors, several laws are relevant – though to varying extents – to the climate change adaptation work. Relevant legislation includes, inter alia:

• the act on Health and Social Preparedness;
• the act relating to food production and food services;
• the act relating to municipal health and care services;
• the act relating to ports and navigable waters;
• the act relating to the control of communicable diseases;
• the Aquaculture Act;
• the Forestry Act;
• the Land Act;
• the Marine Resources Act;
• the Natural Damage Insurance Act;
• the Natural Damage Compensation Act;
• the Nature Diversity Act;
• the Pollution Act;
• the Public Health Act;
• the Railway Act;
• the Road Act;
• the Svalbard Environmental Act; and
• the Water Resources Act.

6.4.2 Monitoring, reporting and evaluation

The Norwegian Climate and Environment Ministry is responsible for the overall reporting of the climate change policy in Norway, including reporting on adaptation progress. The national Climate Change Act commits the government to providing annual reports to the parliament on the status regarding adaptation. A national system for monitoring, reporting and evaluation (MRE) for climate change adaptation has not yet been implemented but is under way as a follow-up of Norway’s action plan on the sustainability goals: the white paper Meld. St. 40 (2020–2021) Mål med mening (translates to “Goals with a purpose”, albeit in Norwegian only).

The member states of the United Nations adopted in 2015 the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. According to the framework, climate change adaptation is a central part of United Nations (UN) Member States’ commitments to reduce risk and vulnerability. Norway is among the countries that have joined the framework and committed to strengthen resilience for natural hazards and reduce the adverse effects of climate change. A midterm review of the implementation of the Sendai framework will be conducted and reported to UN during the fall of 2022.

6.4.3 Roles and responsibilities

A fundamental principle in Norway’s adaptation policy is that the actor responsible for the work also is the actor responsible for the task or function affected by climate change. In consequence, everyone has a responsibility for climate change adaptation: individuals, households, private businesses and the public sector.

6.4.3.1 National level

All government agencies and local and regional authorities carry a responsibility for climate change adaptation within their field. The Norwegian Environment Agency supports the Ministry of Climate and Environment in the work on climate change adaptation and is the coordinating agency. The Environment Agency assists the Ministry in the follow-up of the white paper on climate change adaptation (Meld. St 33 (2012–2013)) and in policymaking. Furthermore, the agency contributes to ensure that the Government’s climate change adaptation work is being implemented in the public administration, as well as in society in general. The agency supports the ministry in international climate change adaptation work.

As the coordinating agency for climate change adaptation, the Norwegian Environment Agency works to ensure that actors on local, regional and national level are taking account of and adapting to climate change. As part of the coordination tasks, the agency also gives guidelines and guidance to the county governors in their climate change adaptation work.

The Norwegian Environment Agency works to strengthen climate adaptation efforts in Norway, among other things by increasing the knowledge base for climate adaptation. The agency has a particular responsibility for disseminating and sharing knowledge and experience, contribute to competence and capacity building and facilitate cooperation between different public administration levels, sectors and other stakeholders in the field.

Climate change has implications for natural hazards, and several actors have responsibilities in this regard. DSB supports the Ministry of Justice and Public security in coordinating civil protection and emergency planning efforts in Norway, in order to prevent and limit consequences of natural hazards. The interdisciplinary approach of civil protection ensures that climate change is managed as part of a comprehensive risk approach, emphasizing the interdependencies between different sectors, different types of infrastructures and different levels of planning.

The Ministry of Petroleum and Energy has the responsibility for floods, landslides and avalanches at the national level, with NVE as an executive authority. The directorate is tasked with improving ability to manage flood, landslide and avalanche risk in the Norwegian society. NVE supports the municipalities through mapping programmes, warnings (flood, soil landslides and avalanches), gives advice in the spatial planning processes and offers technical and financial support in the planning and construction of structural protection measures.

A number of other agencies also carry a sector responsibility for climate change adaptation (see further descriptions of actions under 6.5.4 Implementations and actions).

6.4.3.2 Regional level

The County Governor work to ensure that decisions of the Norwegian Parliament and Government are implemented correctly and is an important link between municipalities and central government authorities. The County Governor plays an important role in supporting and guiding the municipalities in their adaptation efforts, particularly related to risk and vulnerability analysis and land use planning. The County Governor coordinates the civil protection efforts, both prevention and preparedness, on the regional level. The County Governors have to ensure that climate change has been taken into consideration and followed up, both in planning and risk and vulnerability assessments, and have the authority to make formal objections to decisions made by municipalities in planning and building.

The county municipalities play an important role regarding guidance and coordination in relation to municipal planning, in addition to being the regional planning authority. The county municipalities are responsible for regional development in Norway and plays in this regard a role towards the private sector and their adaptation efforts.

6.4.3.3 Local level

Climate change will affect a number of municipal tasks and areas of responsibility. Therefore, the municipalities are required to apply knowledge about current and future climate change in their planning activities and exercise of authority.

The central government planning guideline outlines expectations to municipal and regional planning regarding climate change adaptation. It stresses the need for coordination and cooperation across sectors and between different governance levels. The purpose of the guideline is to contribute to ensuring that adaptation is taken into account in planning and to ensure that municipalities use a wide range of roles and instruments in their work on climate change adaptation. Climate change considerations are particularly important in long-term planning for the development of municipal services and associated infrastructure.

6.4.4 Implementations and actions

Since Norway’s 7^th National Communication, important progress has been made in the climate change adaptation work, within and across a range of sectors.

Climate change creates a need for a service that provides information on the current and future climate and play a part in translating climate science into practical adaptation work. NCCS was officially established in 2013, following the white paper on climate change adaptation the same year. Its purpose is to provide a basis for decision-making on climate change adaptation by facilitating climate and hydrological data to users at the national, regional and local levels. The centre consists of the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET Norway), NVE, NORCE Norwegian Research Centre (NORCE) and the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR). MET Norway holds the overall responsibility for the centre.

NCCS has published several reports over the last years. In particular, its 2015 synthesis report Climate in Norway 2100 – a knowledge base for climate adaptation served the basis for freely available climate and hydrological projections for Norway.39 Summaries of these projections are available in Klimaprofilene (translates to “Climate fact sheets”, albeit in Norwegian only) for Norway’s 19 previous counties and the main settlement on Svalbard, Longyearbyen.40 The synthesis report, along with the regional summaries, are currently being updated to account for the latest knowledge in the 6^th Assessment Report of IPCC.

The knowledge on climate change impacts and consequences has been developed since the 7^th National Communication. In 2019, the existing knowledge on consequences of climate change in Norway was compiled, documenting important developments in since the NOU was published in 2010.¹³ In the report Climate risk in the municipalities, the Norwegian Environment Agency discusses what kind of climate risk municipalities are exposed to, how the municipalities consider climate risk today, and what tools and methods the municipalities have, to carry out these types of assessments.41

A report on transboundary risks points to, among other things, an expected gradual weakening of global productivity, which may cause increased volatility and higher prices on several commodities in the Norwegian market.42 Such risk is particularly evident within agriculture, a sector that is highly exposed to climate impacts, and Norway is currently importing the majority of its consumption. The report also looks at transboundary risk through trade, agriculture, finance, people, infrastructure and geopolitics. Nordic perspectives on transboundary climate risk have also been gathered and published in a report from 2022.43 The study was commissioned by the Nordic Council of Ministers.

In 2017, a Commission appointed by Royal Decree was tasked to assess climate-related risk factors and their significance for the Norwegian economy and propose measures for improved management of such risk. Their assessment was published in NOU 2018: 17 Climate risk and the Norwegian economy.

The commission recommended a reporting framework for maintaining and accumulating knowledge of climate risk faced by the Norwegian economy, as well as set of general climate risk management principles for both the private and the public sector. The commission further recommended that a proper understanding of climate risk should be better integrated into decision-making processes in both the private and the public sector, with expanded use of scenario analyses as a key measure. They proposed measures to improve the ability of the market to address climate risk, including improved awareness of the link between prevention and the risk of damage.

The commission underlined that there is considerable uncertainty with regards to international developments, and that this means that the range of potential outcomes for the Norwegian economy is very wide. Over the long time-horizon adopted in the report, the risk outlook will be dominated by the indirect physical risk associated with how climate change affects other countries.

Furthermore, in the wake of the white paper on climate change adaptation, the Government appointed a committee to evaluate the current legislation and as appropriate make proposals for amendments to provide a better framework for the municipalities responsible for managing storm water, to deal with the increasing challenges associated with urban floods as a result of climate change. The committee launched their report with proposals for amendments in December 2015 (NOU 2015: 15 Overvann i byer og tettsteder – som problem og ressurs; translates to “Storm water runoff in towns and cities – As problem and a resource”, albeit in Norwegian only). The official report on urban storm water and proposed and implemented changes in related legislation is further described in the section 6.4.4.5.3. Urban storm water management.

In the white paper on climate change adaptation, the need to better integrate adaptation to climate change into the municipal responsibilities in order to enable the municipalities to ensure resilient and sustainable communities also in the future, is emphasised. Central government planning guidelines on adaptation were developed in 2018, and an online tool describing how municipalities and counties can incorporate climate change adaptation work into their planning activities was published in 2019.

In addition, a circular published by the Ministry of Climate and the Environment in 2016 provides guidelines for the use of formal objections in climate and environment related issues (T-2/16 Nasjonale og vesentlige regionale interesser på miljøområdet – klargjøring av miljøforvaltningens innsigelsespraksis; translates to “National and regional environmental interests – clarification of the environmental administration’s objection practice”, albeit in Norwegian only). The circular includes requirements regarding climate change adaptation.

Even more recent, an analysis of the effect of climate change and climate-related hazards on the Norwegian food system has given new insight into the risks related to and robustness of the national food system (see Box 6.2).44

Further, important barriers to adaptation at the local and regional level has been identified and published in a new report45.

6.4.4.1 Research

The Ministry of Climate and Environment has identified Norway’s key knowledge needs related to environment and climate, also addressing specific knowledge needs related to the effects and risk of climate change, as well as climate change adaptation. The Ministry’s priorities are presented in the strategy Klima- og miljødepartementets kunnskapsstrategi 2021–2024 (translates to “The knowledge strategy of the Ministry of Climate and Environment 2021–2024”, albeit in Norwegian only). Furthermore, increasing understanding of climate change and laying a foundation for successful climate change adaptation is also highlighted in the white paper Meld. St. 4 (2018–2019) Long-term plan for research and higher education (2019–2028).

The Research Council of Norway supports several research projects related to climate change and adaptation. One of these projects (named SAfeguard BIodiversity and improve Climate Adaptation in catchment areas under pressure: tools and Solution and abbreviated SABICAS) is focusing on solutions for safeguarding biodiversity and improve climate adaptation in catchment areas under pressure. In 2019, the former large-scale programme for climate research (KLIMAFORSK) was integrated into a broader Climate and Polar portfolio, where many of the same goals and objectives have been continued, aiming at providing new, future-oriented knowledge of national and international significance, including enhanced knowledge about how society can and should adapt to climate change. As part of this transformation of the climate research portfolio, the Research Council of Norway initiated an evaluation of KLIMAFORSK in 2020. One of the recommendations from this evaluation was to increase the share of research focusing on climate adaptation and interactions between mitigation and adaptation.

One major activity addressing climate change adaptation supported by the Research Council of Norway, is Klima 2050. Klima 2050 is a Centre for Research-based Innovation (in Norwegian: “Senter for forskningsdrevet innovasjon”, abbreviated SFI). The SFI status enables long-term research in close collaboration with trade and industry, as well as other research partners aiming to strengthen Norway’s innovation ability and competitiveness within climate adaptation. Klima 2050 is addressing societal risks associated with climate change and enhanced precipitation, storm water runoff and water induced landslides within the built environment. Klima 2050 started in 2015 and will last until 2023. Climate Futures is another SFI, launched in 2020 for a duration of 8 years, with the aim of developing climate prediction for handling climate risk. Climate Futures focuses on how climate forecasts ranging from 10 days to 10 years into the future can be used within shipping, renewable energy, sustainable food production and resilient societies.

For further information about research related to climate change, see chapter 8 Research and systematic observation.

6.4.4.2 Information, capacity building and education

the. The Norwegian Environment Agency regularly organises seminars and webinars on adaptation with other stakeholders. Through webinars, the agency reaches local level practitioners across the country, as well as the County Governor, county municipalities, the national authorities, the private sector and research institutions.

Several pilot projects concerning climate change adaptation and related issues have been conducted over the past years. Results from some of these projects have since been translated into online support tools aimed at the local level.

Furthermore, an introductory course on climate change adaptation was developed by the County Governor of Vestfold, Larvik Municipality and the Norwegian Environment Agency in 2015, aimed at the municipalities. The course has since been rolled out in all counties, i.e. all municipalities have been offered participation.

The web-based information portal klimatilpasning.no was established in 2008. The portal supports the Norwegian society in preparing for the consequences of climate change. Local level practitioners being the main target group, the website provides tools and information on climate change adaptation from different sectors. An online tool supports municipalities and county municipalities in adhering to the central government planning guidelines on adaptation. A project archive contributes to sharing knowledge from completed projects that have been supported through the grant scheme administered by the Norwegian Environment Agency. The Norwegian Environment Agency develops and maintains the website on behalf of the sectoral authorities.

In 2018, NVE, DSB, the Norwegian Environment Agency and the Norwegian Association of Local and Regional Authorities (KS) organised a national climate change adaptation conference with over 400 participants from municipalities, national authorities, the private sector and research institutions.

6.4.4.3 Financial support to county councils and municipalities

A grant scheme to support regional and local authorities in their climate change adaptation work was established in 2015 by the Ministry of Climate and Environment and is administered by the Norwegian Environment Agency. Support is given to projects designed to strengthen the knowledge base on which municipalities build their climate change adaptation measures. Between 2015 and 2022, a total of approximately 45 million Norwegian kroner were distributed among about 140 different projects. NVE offers technical and financial support in the planning and construction of structural protection measures.

6.4.4.4 Networks and cooperation

13 urban municipalities are collaborating through The front runner network, established in 2015 and coordinated by the Norwegian Environment Agency. The network develops knowledge on climate change adaptation at the local level and shares knowledge and competence among the participating cities through joint projects. The network was evaluated in 2019 after the first strategy period. A second strategy period of five years started in 2020.

An improved cross-sectoral cooperation has been established related to natural hazards, including climate change. Naturfareforum (translates to “The Natural Hazards Forum”, albeit in Norwegian only) was established in 2016 as a follow-up of the collaboration Research and Development (R&D) program Naturfare, infrastruktur, flom og skred (translates to “Natural hazards, infrastructures, floods and landslides” and abbreviated NIFS, albeit in Norwegian only). The aim is to improve cooperation between national, regional and local actors in managing natural hazards, including the impact of climate change. Naturfareforum works on identifying gaps and the potential for improvement related to the society’s management of risk related to natural hazards, and initiate projects or working groups on cross-sectoral issues. The network is organised with a secretariat consisting of DSB, NVE, the Norwegian Public Roads Administration, and a steering committee where a number of directorates and other national level actors, as well as KS and the Norwegian Environment Agency, are represented.

Naturfareforum acts as the national platform for the global Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. As part of the work on the Knowledge Bank, a platform for collating natural hazard information from all relevant sources a new Section of the Civil Protection Act came into force on 1 May 2021. The legal provision authorises DSB to process confidential personal data on natural and water damage from insurance companies and make them available to municipalities and other relevant public bodies where this is necessary to prevent and reduce the consequences of undesirable incidents. In addition to the public authorities, organisations in both the private and voluntary sector make important contributions to the climate change adaptation work. The Norwegian Association of Local and Regional Authorities support municipalities and county authorities in their work and carry out various capacity building and support activities related to climate change adaptation, including networks.

6.4.4.5 Risk reduction and natural hazard management

6.4.4.5.1 Introduction

Norway is a stable democratic society with low conflict levels and one of the safest countries in the world to live in. However, the country is experiencing serious events that may have disastrous consequences for individuals and major consequences for society. Dangers and threats with severe consequences may originate from a variety of causal factors both nationally and internationally. Some of the most important trends are related to climate change, political, economic, technological and demographic factors. Climate change adaptation is often considered through a sectoral lens. To gain an overall picture of responsibilities for dealing with climate change, it is important to use a different starting point: the types of phenomena and events on which climate change is expected to have an influence. In Norway’s case, the main problems are expected to be water-related, in particular flooding, landslides and avalanches, stormwater, sea level rise and storm surges.

In NOU 2022: 3 På trygg grunn (translates to “On safe ground”, albeit in Norwegian only), the development of requirements for RVAs in accordance with the Planning and Building Act has been proposed. This also includes mandatory use of digital tools for this purpose, and DSB is developing a digital RVA solution for this.

6.4.4.5.2 Civil protection and emergency planning

In the white paper Meld. St. 5 (2020–2021) Samfunnssikkerhet i en usikker verden (translates to “Social security in an uncertain world”, albeit in Norwegian only) climate change is considered one of the major threats for societal safety. Climate change increases the intensity and frequency of extreme weather such as heat waves, torrential rain and strong winds. The distinction between climatic seasons is becoming less clear, for example floods can occur to a greater extent all year round.

There is increasing scientific evidence that as a result of climate change, Norway will experience more and more serious natural disasters in the coming years. Everyone in society have a responsibility for reducing the adverse effects of climate change in accordance with the principles of proximity, similarity, responsibility and collaboration. This requires good arenas for collaboration on challenges and solutions between all actors. Municipalities and County Governors must facilitate such coordination and be driving forces to ensure comprehensive and systematic community safety work regionally and locally.

The white paper states that the Government will actively contribute to the work by the European Union (EU) and UN on societal safety and security and follow up the UN adopted Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030.

A guideline for Natech incidents has been published. The guideline describes how relevant industry can assess the risk of such incidents. National regulations require enterprises to map natural hazards they may be exposed to, and the subsequent undesirable incidents to which they must establish risk reduction measures

The Norwegian strategy for disaster risk reduction focuses on four priorities for reducing vulnerability and strengthening resilience. These priorities may also represent different stages in planning for disaster risk management (DRM):

• Knowledge: Assess risk and vulnerability at national, regional and local level. All relevant sectors and stakeholders should take responsibility for assessing their vulnerability, including both existing and future hazards (changes due to climate change, urbanisation, demographical/social changes, technological/economic development, health etc.).
• Prevention: Avoid new risk and vulnerability by ensuring that development does not take place in hazard-prone areas, or by promoting protection measures in cases where such development cannot be avoided. Land-use planning, development of robust infrastructure, ecosystem based DRR, innovative urban design (e.g. creation of ‘blue-green’ structures), building restrictions, etc., are key instruments to ensure development of resilient local communities.
• Prevention: Reduce existing risk and vulnerability through preventive measures in already developed areas, including technical (protective) installations; building enforcement; improvement of infrastructure; sustainable management of agriculture and ecosystems in order to enhance resilience; etc.
• Preparedness and response: Manage remaining risks by strengthening disaster preparedness and response at all levels, including monitoring and (early) warning systems; preparedness plans; information to the public; reconstruction programs (“build back better”), etc.

The report Vital Functions in Society identifies 14 vital societal functions.46 The designated vital societal functions are: governance and crisis management; defence; law and order; health and care; emergency services; information and communication technology (ICT) security; nature and the environment; security of food and fuel supply; water and sanitation; financial services; power supply; electronic communication networks and services; transport; and satellite-based services. Climate change will affect most of these vital societal functions. The Government has established a system of status assessments for these functions. Over a four-year period, the ministries will report to Parliament on status for the vital functions for which they are responsible. The status reports will largely be based on a risk and vulnerability assessment. The latest report is from 2016 and it is now being revised.

NMA is finishing work on a digital height and terrain model. The model is largely based on new laser scanning data from survey aircraft and is freely available at the website. This model will help in many aspects of improving understanding of climate change impacts, for example in applications related to flooding, landslides, avalanches, and inundation from storm surges and sea level rise (ref. section 6.4.4.5.5 Sea level rise).

6.4.4.5.3 Urban storm water management

Several different authorities are involved in developing a local framework for stormwater management in urban areas. Examples of the most important legislations are the Planning and Building Act and the Pollution Control Act.

With growing cities and increasing precipitation, Norway has experienced an increase in frequency and cost of water damaged buildings and flooding events in urban areas due to uncontrolled storm water runoff. Recognizing the need for better storm water management, the Government established a committee in 2014 to assess the legal framework for urban storm water management. The committee published an official report in December 2015 (NOU 2015: 16). The report recommends informative, legal and economic policy instruments that integrates with existing Norwegian legislation and governance. Local, regional and national authorities should be responsible for appropriate management frameworks and overall guidance. The committee suggests that early planning provisions for storm water management should be mandatory for both spatial planning and building authorities. The committee advised that the work of NVE is strengthened and extended with regard to urban hydrology. The committee emphasizes that local measures should be subject to risk and vulnerability assessments, cost-benefit analysis and continuous evaluation. Green infrastructure providing local infiltration, local retention and safe transport to a watercourse should replace costly pipework as a means to reduce storm water damage costs and offer environmental benefits. In this way, the committee saw a potential to find solutions that will, in due time, be paid back by reduced storm water damage costs.

The relevant ministries have welcomed the report and are looking into ways of implementing some of the recommended policy instruments. Based on the recommendations in the report, the Planning and Building Act was amended in 2019 to underline the need to take storm water runoff into account in local planning (Bill Prop. 32 L (2018–2019)). In 2022, the Government presented a bill to the Norwegian Parliament, proposing several revisions to the Planning and Building Act (Prop. 125 L (2021–2022)). The purpose is to strengthen storm water management by stating that property owners will be responsible for handling runoff from their respective premises. Furthermore, property owners are required to participate in establishing local facilities for handling storm water runoff, with emphasis on green infrastructure.

To assist in adapting infrastructure and buildings to a wetter climate, NCCS has defined a climate change allowance for heavy rainfall based on projected precipitation amount for the end of this century (2071–2100) relative to the reference under the assumption of a high emission scenario.47 Initially, the allowance was formulated as “at least 40 per cent increase”, independent of storm duration or return period. Later, this allowance was nuanced, now stating up to 50 per cent increase for durations under 1 hour and return periods exceeding 50 years.

6.4.4.5.4 Floods, landslides and avalanches

NVE is tasked with improving the Norwegian society’s ability to manage flood and avalanche risk. This includes both the flood, landslides and avalanche hazards of today and the flood and avalanche hazards of the future, which increasingly are affected by climate change. To accomplish the task, NVE conducts and finances mapping of flood, landslide and avalanche hazard, guides and provides input to land use planning in the municipalities, as well as conducts and finances protective measures. Through this process, areas prone to floods, landslide and avalanches are located. These areas are taken into regard in land-use planning, and if there are infrastructure in prone areas, protective measures are considered.

NCCS has defined a climate change allowance for floods. Three classes are distinguished: 1) no change or an expected decrease in flood hazard (0 per cent); 2) an expected moderate increase in flood hazard (20 per cent); and 3) an expected large increase in flood hazard (40 per cent).⁴⁷

The general awareness regarding climate challenges has increased. The climate change effect on floods⁸ is now included as climate change allowances in flood hazard maps. Relevant knowledge has been incorporated in guidelines. For example, how to take climate change into consideration in design flood estimates is included in the Dam Safety Guidelines. Particularly sensitive dams have been identified, and protection against flood and landslide hazards is included in the guideline Flaum og skredfare i arealplanar (translates to “Floods and landslides in land use plans”, albeit in Norwegian only). In a newly developed cost-benefit tool to assess and prioritize between protective flood and landslide measures, climate change effects are included.

The observed and – in particular – projected climate development calls for measures to protect against floods, erosion and landslides in small, steep, mass-transporting rivers with a large potential for damage. A particular guideline for floods in small rivers has been issued,48 as well as guidelines and reports on landslide and avalanche mapping and protection.49^,50^,51^,52

NVE, as the national hydrological institution, will continue to monitor the effect of climate change on hydrology. A high level of R&D activity on the effect of climate change on hydrology and natural disasters is ongoing and will be maintained. There is a general need to reduce the uncertainty of climate and hydrological projections and to develop methods to quantify the uncertainty, communicate these results and make decisions under increased uncertainty.

6.4.4.5.5 Sea level rise

NMA is responsible for the operation and maintenance of Norway’s sea level observing system. The system provides data on tides, sea level extremes (storm surges), reference levels for use in planning and observed changes in sea level. This information, as well as sea level projections and guidance on how to use these numbers in planning, are available on the webpage www.kartverket.no/sehavniva. Users can also access this information through an interface that allows them to integrate the data into their own applications.

There is also a webtool for inundation mapping, which shows extreme still water levels and projected sea level53. The webtool includes statistics on the areas, roads, and buildings affected now and in the future. All the data and maps are freely available. Nationwide, a total area of 517 km², 118 000 buildings and 560 km of roads have been identified as at risk of flooding from a 200-year storm surge event at present. These numbers will increase to 767 km², 151 000 buildings and 1454 km with projected sea level rise to 2090 (95^th percentile of the high emission scenario RCP8.5, as recommended in spatial planning to account for uncertainties in the sea level projections).54

6.4.4.6 Environment, nature and ecosystems

Through various international agreements, Norway has committed to a number of goals and strategies related to management of the natural environment. At the 13^th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the Convention on Biological Diversity in 2016, a decision on biodiversity and climate change was adopted, focusing, among other things, on the need for ensuring the integrity of ecosystems when developing Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, as well as the importance of integrating ecosystem-based approaches (also referred to as nature-based solutions) in adaptation measures. . At the 14^th COP in 2018, voluntary guidelines for the design and effective implementation of ecosystem-based approaches to climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction were adopted by the Parties.

Norway is leading a program running in the period 2021–2024 on nature-based solutions under the Nordic Council. Its purpose is to encourage the Nordic countries to work together and enhance their knowledge base on nature-based solutions, restoration, climate mitigation and blue/green infrastructure.

The Oslo/Paris Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-East Atlantic (OSPAR Convention) is a regional cooperation for the protection and preservation of the marine environment in the North-East Atlantic. OSPAR aims to prevent and eliminate marine pollution and to achieve sustainable management of the OSPAR maritime area.

Marine fish stocks migrate between the economic zones of different states and some into the high seas as well. Such stocks are managed at international level, e.g. by quota negotiations with other countries and by regional fisheries organisations. The International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) plays an important role in this regard as the main provider of scientific advice. The white paper on climate change adaptation in Norway, Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Climate change adaptation in Norway, constitutes the national strategy for adaptation measures, including for the natural environment. The white paper on biodiversity, Meld. St. 14 (2015–2016) Nature for life, constitutes Norway’s national biodiversity action plan. In both white papers, the Government acknowledges that climate change will alter Norway’s natural environment and entail a growing risk of losing characteristic species and habitats. Hence, climate change adaptation must be designed to support the capacity of species and ecosystems to adapt to rising temperatures and avoid any increase in the vulnerability of the environment. The white papers point to the importance of the principles that decisions affecting the environment should be based on scientific knowledge of the impacts of environmental pressures and on assessments of the cumulative environmental effects on ecosystems. These principles are stated in the Norwegian Nature Diversity Act (Act no. 100 of 19 June 2009) and must be followed when making any decisions affecting nature.

A primary objective involves protecting the structure and function of the ecosystems. A major tool for this is ecosystem-based management systems (developed on the basis of the Malawi Principles, laid down in the Convention on Biological Diversity). Integrated marine management plans are in place for all Norwegian marine areas (i.e. the Barents Sea and Lofoten, the Norwegian Sea and the North Sea and Skagerrak) and were revised in 2020. The management plans are based on the ecosystem approach. They are set up to protect environmental services at the same time as they facilitate coexistence and coordination between different commercial activities such as offshore oil and gas extraction, maritime transport, fisheries, and other emerging activities such as offshore renewable energy production. The management plans provide a framework for both existing and future commercial activities, while sustaining the structure, function and productivity of the ecosystems.

The Norwegian Environment Agency has a strategy for its sectoral work on climate adaptation: nature management, outdoor recreation, pollution, climate change mitigation and polar areas, in addition to the agency’s work on guiding the county governor and the municipalities in considering the environment in their planning according to the planning and building act. The strategy aims to reduce the negative effects of climate change on nature and the environment. A changing climate will influence the use, distribution, levels and effects of harmful substances. It also affects nature and ecosystems and may influence outdoor recreation, an activity which is very important to many people in Norway. The agency will, therefore, ensure that it has sufficient knowledge of how a changing climate influences its areas of responsibilities. The agency is responsible for an extensive number of monitoring programs, and possible effects of climate changes have been integrated in relevant programs. The agency will also work to ensure that the effect of climate change have been assessed when developing new/revised regulations and that it is included in relevant risk-assessments before permissions to pollute are issued. The Norwegian Environment Agency is currently working on updating its climate change adaptation strategy.

A major contribution to the ecosystem-based management of freshwater is the comprehensive and cross-sectoral planning under the Norwegian Water Regulation, which implements the EU Water Framework Directive in Norway. River basin management plans have been updated for the comping period (2022–2027) for all river basin districts and include monitoring programs and measures to reach the environmental objectives. New national guidance has been implemented on how to integrate climate change and adaptation issues when assessing status, monitoring, pressures, objectives and measures in the river basin management plans, making use of the projections from NCCS.

A national cross-sectoral strategy for restoration of rivers 2021–2030 has also been adopted. Synergies with win-win solutions for water environment and nature-based adaptation are central elements in the work. Restoration of rivers and wetlands that can prevent floods and erosion and reopening urban streams to handle run-off water, are examples of restoration measures important for climate adaptation. Removal of obsolete, manmade barriers to the movement of fish and other aquatic species is an important part of the strategy, permitting these species to adapt by moving to other parts of the watercourses where water quantity, quality and temperature remain suitable.

Wetlands are particularly important with regard to climate mitigation and adaptation. Securing and restoring wetlands are regarded as win-win measures, which reduce climate vulnerability, reduce erosion, store carbon and secure the habitat of many species. A number of wetlands are protected, and since 2016, more than 100 mires have been restored as part of a national plan for restoration of wetlands 2016–2020 and revised for 2021–2025, developed by the Norwegian Environmental Agency and the Norwegian Agriculture Agency. The plan aims to meet the governmental goals connected to both climate change mitigation, biodiversity and climate adaptation.

Securing a representative network of land areas through national parks, nature reserves, etc., is important for plants and animals that need to migrate due to climate change. In the existing work on expansion and adjustment of protected areas in Norway, such considerations are being included. Mountainous and Arctic areas are regarded as particularly vulnerable to climate change, at the same time as many species are moving upwards and northwards towards colder climate. Protection of “cold areas” may therefore make the protected areas more climate robust. In Norway, approximately 34 per cent of the mountain areas is protected.55

With regard to the cultural landscapes threatened by climate change due to increased growth and regrowth, a number of national and regional environmental programs and measures, which are aimed at securing cultural landscapes, are in place, among other things, a strategy from 2019 on the use of management measures in protected areas. Considerations of climate adaptation are also compulsory when planning for measures concerning the Norwegian World Heritage Sites.

Many invasive alien species will have improved conditions for survival and reproduction owing to climate change in Norway. The Nature Diversity Act has a separate chapter on the importation and introduction into the environment of invasive alien species. In addition, several regulations are in place, which together provide Norway with a comprehensive and coordinated regulatory framework for better control of the invasive alien species. A cross-sectoral strategy has also been developed by 10 of the Ministries, and an action plan for the period 2020–2025 specifies measures to be carried out by the different sectors and measures that they must cooperate on accomplishing.

Guidance about climate change adaptation and nature management towards local and regional level has been developed during the last years and is collated in the web-portal miljodirektoratet.no/myndigheter. Among other things, there is a guide on how to address climate change adaptation related to nature and environment sector in municipal planning activities. Nature-based solutions for climate change adaptation have been getting increasing attention in Norway over a number of years. The Central government planning guidelines on adaptation states that nature-based solutions have to be considered when planning for climate adaptation, and if nature-based solutions are not chosen, it must be explained why. Specific guidance on nature-based solutions has also been developed for areal planning.

6.4.4.7 Human life and health

6.4.4.7.1 Human health

The Norwegian Public Health Act is intended to induce societal changes that promote public health and reduces social inequalities in health. Regional and local authorities shall have an overview of their respective states of public health and the factors that may have an effect on them. Regional and local authorities shall undertake the actions necessary to meet their respective public health challenges. Such action may be undertaken in anticipation of emergencies having public health implications.

The scope of the Norwegian Public Health Act includes the mitigation of likely threats to public health from climatic and environmental conditions, potential floods and the seasonal incidence of high pollen concentration in the air. Pre-emptive action is required to meet health threats from the deficiencies in the maintenance of water works. These actions are to be undertaken in accordance with the Norwegian Planning and Building Act. Other relevant health regulations include regulation concerning water supply (in Norwegian: “Vannressursloven”), water intended for human consumption (in Norwegian: “Drikkevannsforskriften”) and environmental health (in Norwegian: “Forskrift om miljørettet helsevern”).

To various government institutions, the Norwegian Public Health Act has also assigned certain responsibilities concerning health in general, the level of competence in social medicine in local authorities, emergency preparedness, internal quality assurance, supervision and investigation.

The annual white paper of the Norwegian Ministry of Health and Care Services defines the range and scope of the public health activities at national, regional and local levels. Norwegian Directorate of Health provides detailed guidelines on those activities, as well as on the public health issues related to the environment. In 2019, a survey was undertaken in order to determine the competence of local authorities to manage major accidents and crises.56

Norway has committed to building climate resilient and sustainable low carbon health systems through the COP 26 health programme. The programmes’ main aims are:

• a national analysis of vulnerability and adaptation needs related to climate change and health;
• climate resilient health systems; and
• building sustainable low carbon health systems.

6.4.4.7.2 Outdoor recreation

The Norwegian authorities have stated a goal that everyone shall have the opportunity to take part in outdoor recreation on a daily basis. A white paper on outdoor recreation, Meld. St. 18 (2015–2016) Friluftsliv – natur som kilde til helse og livskvalitet (translates to “Outdoor recreation – nature as a source of improved health and life quality”, albeit in Norwegian only), was adopted by the Norwegian Parliament in 2016. The white paper mentions consequences that climate change is expected to have on the conditions for outdoor recreation and the need to take climate change adaptation into account in the management of outdoor recreation areas and trails.

6.4.4.8 Infrastructure and buildings

6.4.4.8.1 Transport

The National Transport Plan is submitted to the Norwegian Parliament in the form of a white paper from the Ministry of Transport and Communication every four years. It sets forth the Government’s transport goals and strategies in a long-term perspective. The current National Transport Plan (2022–2033) provides principles for integrating climate change and climate change impacts in planning and prioritization processes. In addition, and in accordance with the requirements of the Ministry of Transportation and Communication, the transport agencies developed strategies for civil security in transport, where adaptation to climate change is an integral part57.

The transport sector is working on adaptation to climate change by intensifying its work on management of natural hazards. Road and railways were included in the R&D programme NIFS,58 as well as in the follow-up of the programme Naturfareforum.59

The Civil Aviation Authority in Norway (CAA-N) has in May 2021 revised its Strategy for Civil Protection to align with the revised Strategy for Civil Protection within the Transport Sector from the Ministry of Transport and Communications. The Strategy states that the CAA-N shall contribute to knowledge on climate change and possible consequences for civil aviation through international participation within the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection and through the national participation within the Directorate Group on Climate Adaptation, chaired by the Norwegian Environment Agency.

The transport agencies Avinor, the Norwegian Public Roads Administration and the Norwegian Railway Directorate services are also partners in Klima 2050, a centre for research-based innovation related to climate adaptation.60

The railway agency Bane NOR is continuing to develop the system for warning during extreme weather events and flooding, expanding the cooperation with NVE using the national warning system for floods, landslides and avalanches. The Norwegian Public Roads Administration is currently working on a similar system.

Maritime transport

In maritime transport, the Norwegian Coastal Administration (NCA) will carry out risk and vulnerability assessments to adjust infrastructure projects to climate change. NCA has implemented a Climate and Environmental Strategy. In addition to its related action plan, the strategy outlines how the NCA must contribute to meet both national goals and international environmental and climate obligations. In addition, the NCA, alongside other agencies and stakeholders, have an important role in planning. In its participation in planning, the NCA stresses the importance of solid assessments related to climate change and the use of land and waters, especially with regards to consequences for maritime infrastructure.

Road transport

The Norwegian Public Roads Administration (NPRA) has had a major restructuring in 2020, which resulted in divided ownership of the road network between national and county roads. The agency is responsible for updating design manuals (for all roads) to incorporate climate change. NPRA is working on further development of natural hazard plans, on improved warning systems and efficient emergency plans for natural hazards. This is done in collaboration with county road authorities. A web portal (RESPONS) for merging mapped vulnerability and information from warning systems is being finalised. The collaboration in the national warning system, varsom.no, is an important national basis for managing floods, landslides and avalanches.

Railway transport

Bane NOR decided on a new action plan for civil protection, including adaptation plans for climate change during autumn 2016. Bane NOR is continuously revising handbooks, guidelines and standards for both maintenance and construction of new infrastructure to account for the effects of climate change, based on the recommendations given by national guidelines.

Aviation transport

Twenty years ago, Avinor started work on climate adaption. In 2008–2011, safety areas at the sides and ends of runways at several of Avinor’s airports were expanded. Climate change projections were decisive for decisions related to the dimensioning of the projects, ensuring critical infrastructure should be able to withstand future storms and increased precipitation. In 2014, Avinor carried out a risk assessment of all its airports, including connected navigation systems and surface access to the airports. In 2022, this risk assessment was updated as a part of a more strategic approach. This assessment identifies several challenges regarding climate change, such as drainage, wind and flooding issues.

The next step is to implement measures regarding climate change in the early stages of the project plans, such as increased drainage capacity and more durable façade materials, choice of more resistant building materials and resolving drainage issues. It is also important to make the existing infrastructure more durable to the future climate changes, and Avinor now starts working on the reinvestment portfolio regarding these matters. The work with more strategic plans has begun, plans that hopefully will prepare Avinor for the future challenges.

Avinor is one of the partners in Klima 2050 and also works with climate adaptation through ICAO and the Airport Council International (ACI) and.

Aviation is a very risk averse industry, and safety is of paramount importance. The airspace and runways are under continuous surveillance, so if weather and/or surface measurements indicate it, air traffic can be diverted, and the airports can be closed for shorter or longer periods of time. Hence, climate risk is already one of the risk parameters.

6.4.4.8.2 Power supply

The energy sector must adapt to climate change in order to ensure supply reliability. Several policy instruments are in place. These instruments also take into consideration risks related to anticipated future climate change. NVE follows this up through licensing and inspections. Requirements are also set by NVE to electricity utilities in terms of proper contingency planning, available spare parts, transport and communication systems, training etc., to enable an efficient restoration of electricity supply. Furthermore, NVE conducts research and development in the light of anticipated challenges of the energy sector and climate change by participating in national and international programs and projects.

6.4.4.8.3 Cultural heritage

Owners and managers of cultural monuments and cultural environments are facing greater challenges in the future in terms of preserving the cultural heritage in a changing climate. Well maintained buildings and other cultural heritage objects and environments will become increasingly more important in the future.

Due to an increase in glacier melting, collecting and preserving artefacts melting out of the ice has become an important task for the Directorate for Cultural Heritage and the cultural heritage management agencies in affected counties and municipalities, especially in the mountain regions of Norway. The findings give us new knowledge of the use of the mountains and daily life in earlier times.

Adapt Northern Heritage was a project co-sponsored by the Directorate for Cultural Heritage, in cooperation with the Norwegian Institute for Cultural Heritage (NIKU), Historic Environment Scotland, the Cultural Heritage agency of Iceland and several other associated partners. The project ended in 2020. The main goal was to develop good administration of cultural heritage and cultural environments in a changing climate, to gain experience and knowledge, develop management of all administration levels and to minimize loss of cultural heritage values due to climate change. As a result of this project, new guides on risk and vulnerability analysis and new guides on assessing and planning adaptive measures have been developed. These guides are available for both local municipalities and private entrepreneurs.

The Directorate for Cultural Heritage is currently co-sponsoring a project for further developing risk and vulnerability analysis on cultural heritage and climate change. The aim is to develop better tools for use at the local government level.

In 2017, the Directorate for Cultural Heritage started environmental monitoring programmes (in Norwegian: “Miljøovervåkingsprogram”, abbreviated MOV) for measuring the impact of climate change on cultural heritage. There are currently three MOV programs especially monitoring impact of climate change on cultural heritage: MOV Mediaeval Buildings, MOV Bryggen (World Heritage) and MOV Røros (World Heritage)

In cooperation with researchers in Australia and USA, the Directorate for Cultural Heritage are developing a new method, Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI), as a tool for mapping climate change challenges in World Heritage Sites.

A new climate strategy was adopted by the Directorate for Cultural Heritage in 2021. The strategy has two main pillars: 1) the contribution by the cultural heritage sectors to mitigate climate change; and 2) adapting cultural heritage to climate change. The directorate has launched the online Best Practices Collection and Bank of Knowledge, where good examples and the latest research on how to adapt to a changing climate are important elements.

The Directorate for Cultural Heritage continues to prioritize funds for climate shells for valuable churches, and the directorate has for several years had a special focus on securing vulnerable archaeological sites.

6.4.4.8.4 Buildings

Impacts of climate change are of vital importance to requirements of the home and construction sector, and a huge effort has been made to increase the knowledgebase. SINTEF Community, a research institute for the sustainable development of buildings, infrastructure and mobility, has conducted a risk and vulnerability assessment and has proposed measures for reducing climate vulnerability and strengthening the adaptive capacity of this sector.

Owing to the increased exposure to humidity and risk of rot in a changing climate, the Norwegian Institute of Wood Technology and Norwegian Forest and Landscape Institute are conducting research aimed at developing new methods of protecting wood against humidity and rot damage. In addition, the Government in 2012 published the white paper Meld. St. 28 (2011–2012) Gode bygg for eit betre samfunn (translates to “Good buildings for a better society”). This white paper highlights the need to address climate change impact in the building and construction sector.

Pursuant to the Planning and Building Act, it is mandatory for planning authorities to ensure that risk and vulnerability analyses are carried out. Climate change adaptation is integrated into the act, along with regulations on technical requirement for constructions works (in Norwegian: “Byggteknisk forskrift”, abbreviated TEK17). Technical regulations requires that buildings shall withstand the stresses they are exposed to and – to some extent – may be exposed to in the future. Examples are requirements relating to the siting of buildings, moisture protection, indoor climate, outdoor ground infiltration, surface water runoff, structural safety and the selection of suitable products and materials. The Norwegian Building Authority is working on making the technical regulations even more adapted to future climate conditions.

6.4.4.9 Businesses and industries

Stakeholders in the private sector are responsible for considering climate change in their activities and operations. Businesses based on nature and outdoor activities are particularly relevant, but so too are industries depending on international trade. Several activities have been carried out, and reports on the matter have been published in the last years, giving new insight into adaptation efforts and needs in the private sector.

The report Consequences for Norway of transnational climate impacts give an overview of transnational climate impacts, which represent risks and opportunities also for the private sector. Further, OAG, which monitors the public sector, has published an investigation into how a selection of companies located in Svalbard are managing climate change challenges.61 Significant parts of Norwegian operations on Svalbard are organised through companies that the state owns either directly or indirectly, such as Svalbard Airport AS and Kings Bay AS. Climate change adaptation is included in EU’s taxonomy as one of six environmental objectives an economic activity can contribute substantially to. The taxonomy regulation has been implemented in the Norwegian sustainable finance act (in Norwegian: “Lov om offentliggjøring av bærekraftsinformasjon i finanssektoren og et rammeverk for bærekraftige investeringer”).

6.4.4.9.1 Agriculture and forestry

Adaptation in the agricultural sector is crucial in order to prevent and limit the damages from extreme weather events and more gradual climate changes. Adaptation is also important for utilisation of the potential productivity benefits of climate change. Agriculture and forestry sectors also manage extensive areas, and proper management of these areas can prevent damage to other sectors and interests.

There is a continuous need to provide knowledge and approaches for the agricultural sector. In later years, responses to climate change have been emphasized in programmes for knowledge development and support/extension services. The European Green Deal and efforts following the Farm to Fork Strategy have aims to encourage more climate resilient production systems.

Since 2013, a climate and environment programme has been in place to improve and disseminate know-how concerning environmental and climate problems and solutions in agriculture. It also comprises climate adaptation. The programme grants financial support to projects improving knowledge, studies and information. In 2021, 28 million NOK was allocated to the programme. Recently, there has been allocated a budget of 10 million NOK for further development of the project Climate Smart Agriculture, which involves climate advisory service at the farm level.

Norwegian farmers and the food industry, together with the Government, initiate and fund research on climate change issues and adaptation measures through the Agriculture and Food Industry Research Funds (FFL/JA). Among research projects that are set to finish in 2022–2023, one project has focussed on adaptation of Norwegian seed production for gras and clover to a more unstable climate with increased rainfall, whereas another project has investigated climate-adapted production of Norwegian wheat with good baking quality that can contribute to stability and higher self-sufficiency. Finally, a third research project has looked at adaptation strategies for increased Norwegian grain production in a future climate with more rainfall.

Various instruments and support schemes are in place to improve practices in agriculture and address abiotic and biotic stresses that confronts agriculture and livestock. We can distinguish between supportive systems working at a joint level and grants and regulations operating at farm level.

Veterinary services within the livestock sector, as well as sanitary measures and services in the cropping sector, are crucial services to limit biotic stresses. Furthermore, continuous use, development and conservation of animal and plant varieties is crucial to provide adequate varieties for future production.

Genetic diversity and plant breeding are important in handling climate change. Economic support is given to increase the conservation and use of the genetic resources in plants, animals and forestry. In Norway, commercial agriculture is performed even far north. The short growing season with low temperatures, great variation in daylight and challenging winters give few comparable nations with similar growth conditions. Grants are given for plant breeding and seed production to ensure production of plant varieties suitable to the Nordic climate.

To limit future reductions in harvest quantity and quality, the existing warning service for pest infestations could be enhanced. This service estimates and communicates the risk of attacks by plant diseases, insects and weeds for important crops in agriculture and horticulture. This is a useful tool for planning measures for crop protection.

At a practical level, there is a combination of regulation and support schemes to provide for adaptation and preparedness to climate change. Fundamentally, there are instruments to maintain the use of agricultural lands and pasture resources, which safeguards them for future use.

Climate changes will affect the production and demand of agricultural commodities on a global scale. This may affect Norway’s ability to import food, which means that an important measure to adapt to climate change is to ensure Norway’s self-sufficiency. Food security has long been one of four overall goals for the Norwegian agricultural policy. This was continued with the white paper Meld. St. 11 (2016–2017) Endring og utvikling — En fremtidsrettet jordbruksproduksjon (translates to “Change and development — Future-oriented agricultural production”, albeit in Norwegian only) from the Ministry of Agriculture and Food. The white paper also states a goal of increased production on Norwegian resources.

Food security and increased production on Norwegian resources depends on protection of soil resources. Norway has very little farmland compared to other countries. Only 3 per cent of the land is cultivated soil, one third of which can be used for the production of food grains.

In 2021, about 730 acres of cultivated land was decided used for other purposes than agriculture. In 2015, the Norwegian parliament adopted the Government’s strategy for protection of soil resources, stating that no more than 988 acres (4000 dekar) of land/year should be used for other purposes than agriculture. The strategy promotes several measures to reach this goal within 2020. In 2021, the goal was set to 741 acres (3000 dekar).

Surplus rainfall and flooding impose challenges to harvests and field operations in agriculture. There is a support scheme to support investments in drainage systems for agricultural lands. Various support schemes are also in place to limit losses of soil and nutrients from agricultural land through the use of tillage practices, cover crops and other measures that limit exposure of soils over the winter period.

Adaptation is being assessed in the revised regulations for planning and construction of agricultural and forestry roads and in Standards for agricultural and forestry roads (both 2015), and a guidance, Forestry roads and risk of landslides, has been produced (2011). The guidance deals with the risk of landslides when building forestry roads in steep terrain and how to reduce such risks by correct construction of road and drainage systems. A circular about the regulations is under preparation by the Ministry for Agriculture and Food.

Climate change will have an impact on biological production systems and makes forestry and agriculture vulnerable to both gradual changes in the climate system and to extreme weather events. R&D projects, monitoring programs, international cooperation and dissemination will show how production in agriculture and forestry in Norway will be affected by climate change and how different production methods in different regions of the country can adapt.

Due to changes in the climate, production output in the Norwegian reindeer husbandry may be reduced. As a short-term solution to mitigate the effects of a changing climate, the number of reindeer herders utilizing trucks to transport reindeer between seasonal pastures has increased along with the number of herders practicing supplementary feeding.

6.4.4.9.2 Fisheries and aquaculture

A comprehensive effort aims to produce more knowledge about the role of the oceans in the climate system and consequences of climate change for marine ecosystems and resources.

The Ministry for Fisheries and Coastal Affairs has elaborated a climate strategy from 2013. The goal of the strategy is to maximise the ability of the coastal and fisheries administration to meet the challenges of climate change and to promote reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases from the sector.

Norway has a well-developed fisheries and aquaculture management system. Environmental conditions in the marine environment have always varied, and climate change is one of several causes for variability. It is the nature of the management system to be adaptive and deal with such changes no matter what causes them. Substantial changes in the organisation of the management system or its major decision-making processes are thus not foreseen.

6.4.4.9.3 Insurance and public compensation schemes

Two insurance/compensation schemes cover damages caused by natural accidents: 1) the compulsory private natural damage insurance and 2) the public Natural Damage Compensation Scheme. They both reduce the economic risk borne by companies and private households and strengthen society’s resilience against natural hazards.

According to the Norwegian Natural Damage Insurance Act, all objects insured against fire risks (mainly buildings with contents) are as a main rule also insured against natural damage. All insurers providing fire cover in Norway must be members of the Norwegian Natural Perils Pool.

The public Natural Damage Compensation Scheme provides compensation for the rebuilding of damaged objects and infrastructure that cannot be insured against fire risks. The compensation scheme only applies to privately owned property. As a main rule, compensation is only paid when the applicant is rebuilding the damaged object. When compensation for rebuilding is granted, the applicant can also apply for a grant to “build better”, limited to 20 per cent of the grant for rebuilding and a maximum of NOK 30.000. This grant is a subsidy subject to individual assessment in each case.

Both in the compulsory natural damage insurance scheme and the public natural compensation scheme the compensation may be reduced, or refused entirely, when the damage or the extent of the damage is entirely or partly caused by weak construction, or poor maintenance or supervision, or when the injured party can be blamed for not preventing the damage or its extent. If a building has been raised despite a ban on building due to risk of natural damage, compensation from the insurance will not be given.

6.5

6.6 The Norwegian Arctic

6.6.1 Introduction

This chapter presents specific challenges to the Arctic region that have not been covered in the previous chapters. The Norwegian Arctic is here defined as the Arctic waters under Norway’s jurisdiction in the Barents and Norwegian seas, as well as the Svalbard archipelago and the island of Jan Mayen. Areas with sub-arctic climate in northern parts of mainland Norway is described together with the rest of mainland Norway.

According to the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP),62 the physical drivers of Arctic change continue to change rapidly. Key indicators, such as temperature, precipitation, snow cover, sea ice thickness and extent, as well as permafrost, show rapid and widespread changes under way in the Arctic. An important update is that the increase in Arctic annual mean surface temperature (land and ocean) between 1971 and 2019 was three times higher than the increase in the global average during the same period. This is higher than reported in previous AMAP assessments

AMAP also documents that the Arctic is experiencing an increase in extreme events.⁶² New findings include recent increases in the frequency and/or intensity of rapid sea ice loss events in the Arctic Ocean, melt events on the Greenland Ice Sheet and increased boreal forest and tundra wildfires. There has been an increase in extreme high temperatures and a decline in extreme cold events. Cold spells lasting more than 15 days have almost completely disappeared from the Arctic since 2000.

Figure 6.9

Figure 6.10 Trends in average (blue line) global and (red line) Arctic surface air temperature (SAT) for the period 1900–2021 relative to the 1981–2010 mean.

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6.6.2 Climate change in the Norwegian Arctic

In 2019, NCCS published a report describing projections of climate change in the Svalbard area from a recent time period (1971–2000) and up to two scenario periods (2031–2060 and 2071–2100)63. Similar to the report for the Norwegian mainland four years earlier⁴, the Svalbard report provided results for three emission scenarios RCP2.6 (low emissions), RCP4.5 (intermediate emissions) and RCP8.5 (high emissions).

Of the three scenarios, the text describes the resulting climate changes following RCP8.5, in line with the national guidelines that assessment of climate change impact is to be based on a precautionary approach. However, if future global greenhouse gas emissions are reduced significantly (e.g. following RCP2.6) projections show that the expected changes in climate parameters will be significantly smaller.

6.6.2.1 Air and sea temperature

Svalbard is presently amongst the areas around the world with fastest warming (Figure 6.8). By the end of the century (2071–2100), the warming is projected to reach 9.8 °C relative to the reference period (1971–2000).⁶⁵ This is more than a doubling of the corresponding projected warming for mainland Norway (4.5 °C).⁴ The projected warming in winter exceeds that of the other seasons. This is as expected from Arctic amplification.64

Figure 6.11 Annual mean temperature for Svalbard Airport near Longyearbyen (in °C).

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The points and black curve show single years and smoothed decadal variability based on observations from 1900 to 2017, respectively. Future projections are based on (orange spread) Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), (brown spread) empirical-statistical downscaling (ESD) and (red diamond) COSMO-CLM (CCLM) simulations following the high emission scenario RCP8.5.

A recent publication documents that the regional differences on Svalbard are large.65 Over the last 20 years, the temperature increase was 5.4 °C in the north-western parts of the Svalbard archipelago. In comparison, the increase was 2.9 °C in Longyearbyen.

Figure 6.12 Projected temperature change for the year, winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) from 1989–2000 to 2089–2100 based on the RCP8.5 scenario.

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Average sea ice border (80 per cent ice concentration) for the period 1989–2000 is shown as a light blue line for the two seasonal maps. For the scenario period, the ice border is north of Svalbard.

Figure 6.9 illustrates results from simulations with a regional climate model, providing realistic present-day temperatures for the Svalbard area. The results are based on rather short present and future time periods (12 years) but illustrate the stronger warming during winter than summer and that the warming is stronger in the north-eastern parts (Nordaustlandet and the Barents Sea) than at the south-western coast of Spitsbergen. The strongest warming is found in areas where sea ice is replaced by open water.

6.6.2.2 Precipitation

In Svalbard, the relative increase in annual precipitation is projected to be larger than that for mainland Norway, i.e. approximately a 65 per cent increase.⁶⁵ However, the absolute values of precipitation today are low (approximately 400 mm/year at Ny-Ålesund).

6.6.2.3 Permafrost

Permafrost thawing may contribute to triggering rockslides.⁶⁵ However, there is no scientific evidence that indicates that climate change will increase the frequency or magnitude of large rockslides.

In addition to the above-mentioned processes, Svalbard will also experience changes related to thawing of near-surface permafrost in coastal and low-altitude areas and an increase in erosion and sediment transport.

6.6.2.4 Sea level rise

Along the coast of Svalbard, the relative sea level is projected to fall because of continued loss of local ice masses.⁶⁵ Storm surges are not expected to become worse because of sea level rise. However, thawing of permafrost makes coastal erosion a larger challenge.

6.6.2.5 Snow and glaciers

The snow season is expected to become shorter at Svalbard.⁶⁵ A one-month shift has been modelled in the maximum snow storage, shifting the timing of the deepest snow from June (in 1971–2000) to May (in 1971–2000) or even earlier in the southernmost parts. The high emission scenario RCP8.5 projects a reduction in the maximum snow storage across the archipelago, whereas the intermediate emission scenario RCP4.5 poses a less dramatic picture and even an increase in snow amount at the highest elevations.

Almost 60 per cent of the land area of Svalbard is covered by glaciers, and the glacier area is projected to reduce substantially towards 2100.

6.6.2.6 Runoff

For Svalbard as a whole, runoff is expected to increase gradually. In summer, this increase is attributed to glacier melt, and in the other seasons, it is attributed to an increase in precipitation, as well as more precipitation falling as rain rather than snow.

Although the exact magnitude of runoff changes remains uncertain due to methodological issues (the projected contribution of glacier melt is likely too high), the direction of change remains unambiguous.⁶⁵

6.6.2.7 Floods

Flood estimates at Svalbard are highly uncertain due data sampling issues, including that there are just a few operative runoff stations, and that the measuring device is encapsulated in ice during most of the period from October to June.⁶⁵ In general, however, flood magnitudes are expected to increase as a response to increasing glacial melt, snowmelt and rainfall.

6.6.3 Vulnerability to climate change and expected impacts on biodiversity and natural ecosystems

AMAP documents that the rapidly changing cryosphere is affecting ecosystems throughout the Arctic, changing the productivity, seasonality, distribution and interactions of species in terrestrial, coastal and marine ecosystems. Changes in sea ice type, extent and seasonality, and in snow cover on land and sea ice, along with the rapid loss of perennial ice and the Greenland Ice Sheet, are causing fundamental changes in ecosystems that affect the cycling of carbon and greenhouse gases. Unique ecosystems, such as those associated with multi-year sea ice or millennia-old ice shelves, are at risk, and some are vanishing.

The comprehensive Arctic Biodiversity Assessment (ABA) from the Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF) concludes that “climate change is by far the most serious threat to Arctic biodiversity and exacerbates all other threats”. CAFF also published the report State of the Arctic Marine Biodiversity Report in 2017, which builds on the ABA, and compiles available knowledge and monitoring data on a specific set of marine ecosystem components. The report gives an overview of detectable changes in biodiversity in marine areas in different Arctic regions, including northern parts of the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea.

In 2021, CAFF published the state of the Arctic terrestrial biodiversity report.66 The assessment report documents that climate change is the overwhelming driver of change in terrestrial Arctic ecosystems, causing diverse, unpredictable, and significant impacts that are expected to intensify. Species from southern ecosystems are moving into the Arctic and are expected to push Arctic species northwards, create an “Arctic squeeze”, and change species’ interactions. A recent assessment of Norwegian Arctic tundra ecosystems shows have since the climatic reference period (1961–1990), these ecosystems have undergone rapid and substantial changes in the abiotic conditions manifested particularly as increasing surface temperatures, longer and warmer growing seasons, shortening of the snow-covered season, and increasing permafrost temperatures.67 The same assessment concludes that Norwegian Arctic tundra ecosystems are overall in a good ecological condition, with fundamental structures and functions still maintained, despite substantial abiotic changes. Low Arctic tundra in Finnmark shows more pronounced and consistent deviations in biotic characteristics than the High Arctic tundra in Svalbard. In Finnmark, the Arctic tundra ecosystems are on a trajectory of losing Arctic endemic species (Arctic fox and snowy owl) and is bioclimatically on a trajectory away from low Arctic subzones towards boreal subzones.

In 2019, CAFF published its freshwater assessment report, which concludes that Arctic freshwater ecosystems (e.g. lakes, rivers, and associated wetlands) are highly threatened by climate change and human development, which can alter the distribution and abundance of species and affect biodiversity and the ecosystem services on which many Arctic peoples depend.68 In the ocean, loss of sea ice is already affecting the timing and patterns of primary production, altering food webs and reducing the availability of sea ice to walrus and ice seals for resting, molting, breeding and rearing young. The total loss of some key habitats, such as multi-year pack ice, is expected.

In the process of rapid change and transitions, new combinations of species are altering Arctic ecosystems. The pace of the temperature rise in the Arctic is very high, causing difficulties for the Arctic species to adapt. The consequences of climate change on Arctic marine biodiversity are difficult to forecast. This is partly due to the fact that current biodiversity monitoring is not sufficient to describe status and trends for many arctic species69 but also because the ecological changes that are detected, vary between the Arctic regions. A number of Arctic species are shifting their ranges northwards to seek more favourable conditions as the Arctic warms. Many species and habitats that are characteristic of the Arctic today, however, will be unable to move further north to find new areas of habitat with a suitable climate. Species and ecosystems associated with the sea ice are particularly vulnerable to climate change and risk having their ranges severely restricted or disappearing due to loss of sea ice. This includes polar bears, hooded seals, harp seals, ringed seals, narwhals, little auks, ivory gulls, polar cod and a number of species, like algae and small animals living inside the sea ice. The Svalbard area and the Northern Barents Sea is losing sea ice faster than most parts of the Arctic, and the risks from climate change to ecosystems and species in these areas are high.

Rising temperatures will continue to result in a northward shift in the distribution of species and habitats. The Arctic species and habitats found in the region are gradually displaced by species and habitats that are currently found further south. Tundra areas north of the Arctic treeline are some of the terrestrial habitats that will continue to undergo the most dramatic changes as the permafrost thaws.

Marine ecosystems change as the sea temperature rises. Higher temperatures and the retreat of the sea ice allows more southerly species to move into Arctic sea areas, and purely Arctic species will meet growing competition, greater predation pressure and a higher risk of disease and parasites. Many seabird species are or will be expected to be negatively affected by climate change.70 The distribution of commercially important fish species, such as cod, haddock, herring and capelin, have already changed and may change more in the future.

The declining sea ice cover is making marine and coastal waters in the Arctic more accessible for fisheries, maritime transport, mining activities, cruise ships and oil and gas activities. If not managed properly, the increase in activity levels may lead to unsustainable harvesting, infrastructure development, habitat loss and fragmentation, the spread of invasive alien species, disturbance of the fauna and the risk of pollution.

Delegations from Canada, China, Denmark in respect of the Faroe Islands and Greenland, the European Union, Iceland, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Norway, Russia and the USA concluded negotiations in late 2017 on the draft Agreement to Prevent Unregulated High Seas Fisheries in the Central Arctic Ocean. Fishing in the central Arctic Ocean, an area that is roughly 2.8 million km² in size, has never been possible, nor is it likely to occur in the near future.

6.6.4 Vulnerability to climate change and expected impacts on society

According to AMAP,⁶² Arctic climate change is posing widespread risks to safety, health and well-being, damaging infrastructure and causing economic impacts to many sectors. Commercial fisheries, aquaculture and cruise tourism are expanding in the Arctic, with implications for coastal communities and livelihoods, vulnerable ecosystems and demand for search-and-rescue services. Climate change is also affecting the subsistence, harvest-based livelihoods and food security of small Arctic communities—especially Indigenous communities.

In Svalbard, as in mainland Norway, climate change is increasing the risk of landslides, avalanches and floods and result in more frequent and more severe extreme weather events. Coastal erosion could also become a growing problem in Svalbard. Infrastructure such as roads, buildings and port facilities will be vulnerable to such natural hazards. Their isolation may make the settlements more vulnerable to climate-related events that disrupt critical infrastructure. Incidents of avalanches and landslides in or in close proximity of the settlements in Svalbard has happened in recent years. These incidents also affect outdoor activities and tourism.

The rapid climate change has made Svalbard’s natural and cultural environment more vulnerable. The rising temperature and increased precipitation are affecting the conservation conditions for archaeological sites, as well as cultural heritage buildings and other standing structures. At the same time, tourism and traffic have increased sharply. This has already left clear traces in many places in Svalbard. Both climate change and tourism growth are expected to continue.

For the cultural environment, rot damage and increased degradation of material, coastal erosion and changing foundation conditions (thawing of permafrost and/or increasing the active layer) are the biggest challenges for conservation and predictable management of the cultural environment. This development is much more visible in Svalbard than on the mainland (cf. the Arctic amplification).

The infrastructure and houses in the largest settlement at Svalbard, Longyearbyen, is mainly founded on piles into the ground, supported by the permafrost. When the permafrost slowly melts, it causes sentence damages. Svalbard airport experiences major challenges both on the runway, terminal and other buildings. The airport is critical for the citizens’ safety, and the airport operator Avinor is now monitoring the development of sentence, to prepare possible actions.

Research and the travel and tourism industry are important sectors in Svalbard that will be affected by climate change. The increasing length of periods without sea ice in the summer is making areas more accessible to cruise ships. At the same time, an earlier spring thaw and a reduction in ice cover on the fjords will shorten the season for snowmobile-based tourism and restrict the areas available for such activities. There will be less opportunity for visitors to observe ice-dependent species, and the travel and tourism industry will have to adapt its activities to a situation in which many species are under stress as a result of climate change.

Svalbard is one of the most important sites for scientific research in the Arctic. However, climate change affects research in a number of ways, including through changes in natural conditions and the accessibility of areas and biodiversity. The opportunity to study climate change in the Arctic is one of the drivers behind the growing interest in research and teaching activities in the archipelago.

The warmer climate and loss of sea ice are also resulting in changes in activity patterns in the waters around Svalbard. Such changes in activity patterns may make it necessary to upgrade fisheries inspection, maritime safety, oil spill preparedness and response and search and rescue capacity in these waters. Changes in temperature, precipitation and extreme weather events will affect offshore activities and maritime transport.

6.6.5 Adaptation measures

6.6.5.1 Ecosystems

The speed of climate change in the Arctic highlights the need for adaptation measures. Reports from the AMAP-led Arctic Council project Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic (AACA)71 and a report from the Norwegian Polar Institute72 have assessed possible adaptation measures in the Arctic, including the Norwegian Arctic. One of the findings in the AACA project is that it is increasingly important to recognize the significance of natural capital, ecosystem services and resilience in the context of adaptation.

Climate change will pose considerable challenges for the nature management in Svalbard. In the same way as in mainland Norway, it will be necessary to strengthen instruments to safeguard threatened species and habitats that may come under increasing pressure as a result of climate change and increased accessibility and human impact due to less severe sea ice conditions.

Some measures have already been introduced in Svalbard in response to areas now being more accessible due to reduced sea ice. Regulations in and outside protected areas have been adapted to meet the challenges posed by climate change and increased traffic. The cruise operators Association of Arctic Expedition Cruise Operators (AECO) have developed site guidelines, which aim at safeguarding the environment and cultural remains. To reduce the risk of a shipwreck or grounding, carrying heavy bunker oil is prohibited in all of Svalbard’s territorial waters, and cruise ships that call in the nature reserves in the eastern part of Svalbard may not carry more than 200 passengers. In addition, compulsory pilotage has been introduced, and charting of the waters around Svalbard is being improved. For the emergency preparedness towards an acute pollution incident, a tool (PRIMOS) has been developed, which collates mapped information about the environmental values in Svalbard.

Climate change adaptation of management practice is one of the elements of the management plans that are being drawn up for the protected areas in Svalbard. These protected areas cover most of Svalbard’s land and territorial waters. Furthermore, an action plan from 2017 to prevent the introduction and spread of invasive alien species in Svalbard is being implemented, in part as a response to the fact that climatic barriers to invasive species are weakened due to climate change. At the same time, Norway is following up the Arctic Invasive Alien Species Strategy and Action Plan 2017 from CAFF and Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment (PAME) under the Arctic Council.

Results from the extensive research, monitoring and mapping of species and ecosystems are reported through the environmental monitoring program for Svalbard and Jan Mayen (in Norwegian: “Miljøovervåking Svalbard og Jan Mayen”, abbreviated MOSJ), which includes several indicators of impacts of climate change in Svalbard.73 National Environmental Goals and the state and development of the Norwegian Arctic are also presented on Norway’s official State of the Environment Norway web-page.74 An ecosystem-based monitoring program for land ecosystems in the Norwegian Arctic, Climate-ecological Observatory for Arctic Tundra (COAT) has been developed during the last years. COAT is particularly designed to be able to detect impacts on climate change.

In 2021, Norwegian Arctic tundra ecosystems was assessed.⁷¹ The assessment report shows that since the climatic reference period (1961–1990), these ecosystems have undergone rapid and substantial changes in the abiotic conditions manifested particularly as increasing surface temperatures, longer and warmer growing seasons, shortening of the snow-covered season and increasing permafrost temperatures. The biotic implications of these changes are still mostly limited. The report concludes that the Norwegian Arctic tundra ecosystems are overall in a good ecological condition, with fundamental structures and functions still maintained, despite substantial abiotic changes. However, some biotic ecosystem characteristics show deviations from the reference condition, while others are presently on significant change trajectories, which should be considered a warning of more extensive, incipient ecosystem changes.

6.6.5.2 Human activities and settlements

Climate changes add strain to critical infrastructure in Svalbard that is already vulnerable, thereby creating a need for upgrading and adaptation. Climate-related incidents can also pose a threat to life and health. It is, therefore, important that land-use and community planning in the planning areas take climate change into account. The guide to land-use planning under the Svalbard Environmental Protection Act has been revised. A description of how the planning areas in Svalbard should take climate change into account is included in the revised guide.

NVE supports the local authorities on Svalbard on the same terms as on the mainland. The support in mapping, land-use planning, early warning, protection and crisis management related to floods, avalanches and landslides is prioritized based on a cost-benefit approach. Since 2016, NVE has built protection measures against floods and avalanches around Longyearbyen.

The integrated management plans for the Barents Sea–Lofoten area and the Norwegian Sea are important tools for overall adaptation of the framework for activities in Arctic seas to changes in the climate, environmental conditions and patterns of activity. These management plans are presented as governmental white papers. They are updated at regular intervals. The last update came in 2020,75 and the next is planned for 2024.

6.6.5.3 Cultural heritage

Since 2018, the Directorate for Cultural Heritage and the office of cultural heritage management at the Governor of Svalbard have seen an increase in the number of cases as a result of the challenges mentioned in section 6.5.4 Vulnerability to climate change and expected impacts on society.

In order to meet the challenge of increased coastal erosion, the directorate and the Governor of Svalbard has, among other things, moved and carried out documentation of several cultural remains to safeguard source values and help to gather knowledge before they are lost. The Directorate for Cultural Heritage sees that the loss of cultural-historical values because of climate change will – in some cases – be inevitable or due to a shortage of resources to safeguard them. A lack of systematic monitoring of the cultural environment in recent years contributes to unpredictability in the long-term management of the cultural environment in Svalbard and challenges the resource situation

The Governor of Svalbard is monitoring erosion at exposed cultural heritage sites and has developed an archaeological research plan for selected sites. There is a great need for more knowledge about the effects of climate change on conservation of cultural heritage on Svalbard.

6.6.5.4 Emergency preparedness

By increasing the accessibility of Arctic marine areas to human activities, the need for search and rescue (SAR) operations also increases. In 2013 the Arctic SAR Agreement entered into force. The treaty coordinates international search and rescue coverage and response in the Arctic, and establishes the area of SAR responsibility of each state party. All the member states of the Arctic Council — Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the United States — signed the agreement. In response to the increase in activity and the wider geographical area of responsibility, the Governor of Svalbard has two large helicopters. In addition, search and rescue vessels of a suitable size for the helicopters. This has strengthened search and rescue capacity in Svalbard and nearby sea areas. More and better (winterized) oil spill response equipment has also been stored on Svalbard. These changes are based on the experience from off-loading fuel from the trawler Northguider and the following wreck removal.

Surveillance of ship traffic in the Arctic is established with national automatic identification system (AIS) satellites and access to other AIS satellite services. New AIS satellites with enhanced functionalities are in trial with a view to possible future enhancement of the present constellation. Also, Norway has added shore-based AIS receivers increasing surveillance in the coastal areas around the Svalbard archipelago. Moreover, in 2010, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) introduced obligatory long-range identification, and tracking of passenger ships, cargo ships (300 gross tonnage and upwards) and mobile offshore drilling units (LRIT) also provides information on ship traffic. This means that Norway has access to information on maritime activity in Arctic waters, valuable for SAR operations and other purposes.

Through the Agreement on Cooperation on Marine Oil Pollution Preparedness and Response in the Arctic (MOSPA), the Arctic countries have also strengthened cooperation, coordination and mutual assistance on oil pollution preparedness and response in the Arctic in order to protect the marine environment from pollution by oil.

The relevant rules of the Act relating to ports and navigable waters and associated regulations on pilotage are applicable to Svalbard. This means that the rules relating to the state pilotage service, compulsory pilotage and pilot exemption certificates are the same as for mainland Norway in the waters around Svalbard.

6.6.5.5 International cooperation

There is effective, binding international cooperation in the High North, which promotes environmental protection and sound resource management. The Arctic Council is the most important arena for dealing with common challenges in the Arctic. In May 2017, all member states of the Arctic Council signed the Agreement on Enhancing International Arctic Scientific Cooperation, aiming at developing and expanding international Arctic scientific cooperation.

Over the years, the Arctic Council working groups have published a number of reports that synthesise and assess new knowledge on climate change and adaptation in the Arctic. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Arctic Council activities, including scientific assessment activities, has paused.