3 Risk, vulnerability and participation

3.1 Key risk factors

3.1.1 Sudden- and slow-onset natural disasters

The figures speak for themselves. The number of natural disasters is increasing dramatically. The Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) registers an average of 700 a year. 1 More than 255 million people were affected by natural disasters between 1994 and 2003.

Although the death toll has declined over the last 20 years (more than 21 000 people died as a result of natural disasters in 2006, compared with some 100 000 in the previous year and 250 000 in 2004) there are major disparities in the global distribution of casualties. Almost 70% of deaths occur in countries at the bottom end of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Human Development Index. Today, natural disasters affect three times as many people and cause five times as much economic damage as in the 1980s. Environmental and climate change could accelerate this trend. The combination of urbanisation and hydrometeorological phenomena (e.g. floods, droughts and hurricanes) gives particular cause for concern.

The reports of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2 indicate that climate change is happening faster and sooner than previously forecast, and that small island states and coastal cities are at particular risk. According to the IPCC, it is very likely that extreme weather conditions will become more severe and more frequent as a result of climate change, and that extensive adaptation is both possible and necessary to reduce vulnerability in the countries at greatest risk.

It is the major disasters that dominate the headlines – earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes. But every day, smaller-scale emergencies are hitting local communities, exacerbating poverty and forcing people to migrate. These are crises that the international community barely hears about.

In addition to sudden-onset humanitarian emergencies, we are also faced with several slow-onset disasters with major humanitarian and socio-economic costs. The most important examples of this type of disaster are damage to ecosystems, low food security, famine and malnutrition, for example in several African countries, the health crisis in countries that are badly affected by HIV/Aids, and the negative consequences of increased migration and uncontrolled urbanisation. The World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that some 850 million people are unable to meet their day-to-day food needs, and the number of chronically undernourished has risen by 3–4 million every year since the mid-1990s. 3 The severity of the situation is illustrated by the fact that the first UN Millennium Development Goal – MDG 1 – is to eradicate extreme poverty and hunger.

3.1.2 Environmental and climate change

Damage to the environment from deforestation and desertification, land degradation, loss of biological diversity, floods, droughts, fires and landslides already constitutes a major threat to populations in a number of our partner countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and in the Himalayan region.

Environmental problems are intensified by climate change, which poses a threat to human security and our efforts to achieve the MDGs. Today, human activity is disrupting ecosystems faster than ever before. This is increasing the vulnerability of ecosystems and undermining their ability to act as a buffer against natural disasters such as floods, fires and hurricanes.

According to the IPCC, human activity is increasingly being adapted to both observed and projected climate change, but these adaptations are still very limited. An increase in temperature is unavoidable regardless of what measures are implemented to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the future, due to the emissions that have already taken place. Adaptation is therefore vital in any case to reduce vulnerability to future climate change.

The IPCC also points out that many of the impacts of climate change can be avoided, reduced, or delayed through emission reduction measures. According to the IPCC, «Unmitigated climate change would, in the long term, be likely to exceed the capacity of natural, managed and human systems to adapt.»

One way of increasing adaptation capacity is to integrate considerations of climate change into development plans, for example by including adaptation considerations in land area planning and infrastructure development, and incorporating vulnerability reduction measures into existing poverty reduction strategies.

Investment in measures to increase preparedness for and prevent climate-related humanitarian crises will therefore be decisive both for the present and for future generations. The world’s poorest countries, which bear the least responsibility for global warming, will be hardest hit by stronger hurricanes and more frequent and long-lasting floods, droughts and water shortages, which will in turn increase famine and the spread of infectious diseases, particularly in Africa, South Asia and Central America. The vulnerability of these countries to climate change is due in part to natural conditions, but is intensified by overexploitation of natural resources, widespread poverty, rapid population growth and poor governance.

We do not know for sure what effect global warming will have on the frequency and scale of humanitarian crises in the future, but the IPCC’s Fourth Assessement Report gives clear indications. Unless steps are taken to reduce present emission levels, temperatures could rise by several degrees by the end of the century, which would entail a risk of a significant rise in sea level. A number of small island states and heavily populated coastal areas are in danger of flooding. The World Bank has estimated that a one-metre rise in sea level would affect 56 million people in 84 developing countries.

More than half of the world’s population live less than 60 kilometres from the sea, and 75% of all the world’s cities are situated on the coast. All these people are therefore vulnerable to increases in sea level. Among the regions most at risk are East Asia, the Middle East and North Africa. Higher sea temperatures could also cause stronger winds due to changes in meteorological conditions.

According to the IPCC, climate change will cause greater variations in precipitation (amounts, intensity and geographical distribution). The rainy seasons will become less predictable. In the short term, the melting of snow and glaciers and an altered precipitation pattern in the Himalayan region (China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Afghanistan) will cause glacial lake outburst floods and landslides in the highlands and floods in the lowlands. Settlements in both mountain and lowland areas are already experiencing more frequent and more extensive flooding. Moreover, flood water is often polluted and can spread disease to people living along waterways. In the longer term, the melting of glaciers could lead to a general water shortage in the Greater Himalayan region – the most heavily populated region in the world – due to reduced melt water.

In Africa, longer periods of drought will exacerbate the problems associated with low food security and will lead to further famine and water shortages. Flooding is also an increasing problem. The occurrence of diseases such as malaria is closely linked to climate conditions. As a result of warmer conditions, malaria mosquitoes have already spread to higher ground in East Africa that were malaria-free 10 years ago. The spread of locusts and other pests is also affected by meteorological conditions.

The Horn of Africa, for example, is already experiencing an altered weather pattern, which is having serious effects on agriculture in marginal areas. Vulnerable groups such as pastoralists, who have lived with natural variations for centuries, are gradually losing their livelihoods. Urban slums in the region are growing as a result of the agricultural crisis and the streams of refugees and internally displaced persons fleeing conflict areas.

Although research so far has not shown any systematic correlation between inadequate resources and conflict, many humanitarian actors have experienced at close quarters that limited access to resources such as food and water can lead to political unrest and a higher level of conflict between clans, ethnic groups and villages. Violent conflict may also be a direct cause of environmental damage and shortage of resources.

Source World Urbanization Prospects: The 2001 Revision

3.1.3 Urbanisation

Today, half of the world’s population is living in cities. In 2030, it is expected that 60% will do so. Population growth is now three times higher in cities than in rural communities, and it is highest in the South. The average rate of growth in African cities is twice as high as in cities in Latin America and Asia.

It is particularly small cities (with fewer than 500 000 inhabitants) that have a rapid and unregulated pattern of growth. Many of these do not have adequate physical, social or economic infrastructure such as roads, health and education services, communications systems, banks, etc.

The world population is expected to reach nine billion by 2050, and most of this growth will take place in towns and cities. This will affect the security and development policy challenges we face. The growth of cities is taking place against a backdrop of rapid, but unevenly distributed economic growth. As it is, local authorities in fragile states lack the resources needed to provide security and basic social services.

Many towns and cities are situated in areas that are particularly vulnerable to natural phenomena such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods, rising sea levels and extreme winds. Population growth in cities with weak regulation of business activities and settlements increases the risk of industrial accidents with serious humanitarian consequences.

Poor people settle where it is cheapest to live. Slums grow up in marginal land areas that may be vulnerable to earthquakes, floods, landslides and health hazards, and slum dwellers tend to be without property rights and personal security. These factors can reinforce existing conflict patterns, and create new ones. Violence and crime, often perpetrated by mafias or gangs of youths, is an increasing problem in the world’s slum areas. These social developments are also having an effect on recruitment to religious movements, particularly among unemployed young men, and could create a breeding ground for more serious conflicts between different social groups in urban areas in the future.

Towns and cities account for around 3% of the world’s landmass, and many of these densely populated areas do not have adequate local governance. Some one billion people are currently living in slums, and at the present rate of urbanisation, this figure will surpass two billion in 2030. Unregulated urbanisation is a challenge for efforts to prevent humanitarian crises in densely populated areas in poor countries with poor governance and insufficient capacity for urban planning and political governance at local level.

Cities are centres of political decision making and play a very important role in economic growth and development, and for the private and cultural sectors. Natural disasters and violent conflicts that affect strategically important cities and industrial zones will therefore lead to significant material losses.

Meanwhile, development in rural areas could mitigate the problems caused by increasing urbanisation. Three-quarters of the world’s poor still live in rural areas, and sustainable development of these communities would help to mitigate the negative consequences of urbanisation, and thus reduce the adverse impact of humanitarian crises in urban areas.

3.1.4 Conflicts and civilian losses

Many humanitarian crises are a direct consequence of armed conflict, and nearly 650 000 people lost their lives in conflicts between 1995 and 2005 4 . The number of wars and the number of fatalities due to conflicts have, however, declined since the beginning of the 1990s. Norway is participating actively in international conflict resolution and peacebuilding efforts, and the Government emphasises in its policy platform that we will maintain our commitment to peace.

The reduction in the number of fatalities is also due to changes in conflict patterns. Most conflicts today are between ethnic and/or religious groups within a country, and such groups rarely have access to heavy weapons. We therefore tend to see low intensity conflicts involving poorly equipped rebels, who – due to their inferiority in terms of conventional military strength – use strategies that particularly hit civilians, such as sexual violence, suicide attacks, kidnapping, etc. Many of these conflicts take place in the growing number of fragile states.

At the same time, there is greater international focus on prohibiting weapons that primarily hit civilians, during or after a conflict. This also helps to explain the reduction in the numbers of people killed.

On the other hand, there has been an increase in reported attacks on civilians in connection with conflicts, even though the number of fatalities seems to have declined. 5 Moreover, people are often systematically forced to flee their homes in internal conflicts, and this further destabilises countries and regions that are already vulnerable. At the beginning of 2007, a total of some 38 million people were displaced due to violent conflicts. In a civil war, there is often no clearly definable battleground or dividing line between the warring parties. This too makes the civilian population vulnerable. Conflict within a country often has consequences for the neighbouring countries. Today, there are very few conflict-affected countries that do not have one or more neighbouring countries that are also affected by conflict. Efforts to prevent violent conflict must therefore be seen in a regional perspective.

Conflicts also have indirect consequences in the sense that living conditions deteriorate and infrastructure is damaged. Very many people die as a result of disease and inadequate access to food, medicines and clean drinking water. From a gender perspective, men are overrepresented among those who are directly killed in a conflict, while women and children account for the greater part of those who are indirectly affected through disease, food shortages, violence and sexual abuse.

One in five peace agreements fails within five years. 6 It often takes a long time to rebuild essential government structures and restore economic activity after a war or conflict. This increases the vulnerability of the population. Many of the countries that are finding it most difficult to achieve the MDGs are countries that are in or have recently emerged from conflict. Many of these conflicts are found in Africa, but there is also a pattern of conflict in Asia that gives increasing cause for concern.

Conflict-ridden areas and countries are vulnerable to local, regional and global environmental and climate change, at the same time as conflicts are often a direct cause of environmental degradation. This may lead to new security challenges, and conflicts over control of freshwater, arable land and marine resources may arise. Major changes to local settlement patterns may also cause greater social tension and political conflict.

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has recently published a study of the environmental situation in Sudan, 7 which shows a strong correlation between land degradation, desertification and conflict in Darfur. Northern Darfur in particular has experienced ecological collapse as a result of rapid population growth and increasing environmental problems, and the political, tribal and ethnic differences in the area will not be resolved unless there is a major improvement in the population’s food security and living conditions.

3.1.5 Health

Humanitarian crises are about the health and lives of our fellow human beings. Epidemics and particularly pandemics are themselves a cause of humanitarian emergencies, in addition to being a major cause of poverty and lack of development.

Due to globalisation, environmental and climate change and changes to settlement patterns, diseases are now spreading faster. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), 77 000 people in the Western Pacific region are now dying every year of diseases that are directly or indirectly related to climate change, accounting for half of those thus affected globally. Diseases are spreading into new areas or reoccurring in areas where they had previously been brought under control.

Preparedness for this risk factor is an international task as all countries and population groups are becoming more vulnerable and have a direct interest in preventing outbreaks. Therefore, the increasing complexity of conflicts and crises gives grounds for concern, as this has impeded the implementation of vaccination programmes and other measures to prevent infection.

Diseases and other health problems can also be directly caused by disasters, especially in areas with insufficient supplies of food and drinking water and poor sanitation. Shelter and education are also factors that directly affect health, as are social factors such as gender, poverty and discrimination. Here too we see the cumulative effect of climate change, new settlement patterns and the growing complexity of crises. Groups that are already vulnerable become twice as vulnerable in a crisis situation.

Maternal and child health should be given particular focus, because this is literally a question of the future of society. These are essential health needs that must be met, and meeting these needs is essential for development. This is one of the reasons why the health dimension has such a central place in the MDGs, and why the Government has decided to mobilise its own and others’ resources in a global campaign to meet the health-related MDGs.

The very first humanitarian aid is provided by family, friends, neighbours and the local community affected. The ability to provide this aid depends, of course, on the nature of the crisis, but also on the general level of preparedness. It is also decisive that this initial help is kept up and intensified through national or international efforts. The local community’s ability to cooperate is just as important as the humanitarian actors’ ability to respond to local needs. We often overlook the fact that the need for general medical help is in addition to the humanitarian needs that arise in a disaster.

A well-functioning health system is vital not only for responding to a disaster, but also for subsequent reconstruction. Here too there is a tendency for international efforts to stop too soon. The restoration of health services takes time and requires targeted efforts.

HIV/Aids is an integral factor in the whole breadth of the crisis and development challenges we are facing, including preventative efforts, especially in African countries. The spread of the disease has been particularly rapid in slum areas, but it is also spreading in rural communities. Higher population densities increase the risk of the disease spreading due to inadequate physical and social infrastructure. The lack of proper water supplies and sanitation in unregulated urban areas is a major risk factor. Despite advances in the understanding of the risk and treatment of the disease, HIV/Aids is still on the increase.

3.2 Vulnerability and participation

The tendency to differentiate between «man-made» and «natural» humanitarian crises is one of the barriers to better coordination in many of the countries in which Norway is actively engaged. Conflicts and natural disasters are, to some extent, dealt with by different actors, and the risk factors and approaches are also often different. The prevention of and response to conflicts is generally more complex than that required when dealing with climate- and environment-related natural disasters, partly due to the fact that the authorities are generally involved in a conflict, and access for humanitarian personnel is therefore limited. It is important that we respect these differences, but at the same time we should also seek to identify links between the two types of crisis, because these will enable us to achieve better results.

Vulnerability is a measure of the susceptibility of individuals and societies to such hazards as conflict and climate change, and their capacity to plan for, adapt to and resist changes in their environment and living conditions. Human vulnerability depends on such factors as housing, ecosystem resilience, gender, age, social status, ethnic affiliation and the realisation of human rights.

The consequences of humanitarian crises are serious regardless of where in the world they occur, but the impact is generally even more severe in developing countries. This is due to such factors as degradation of the environment, poor quality of buildings and infrastructure, settlement patterns in particularly vulnerable areas, poor governance and inadequate social planning. The poor live in the most marginal and vulnerable areas, even in rich countries like the US – as we saw in connection with the hurricane in New Orleans in 2005.

The population’s ability to resist and deal with external shocks is a decisive factor in whether a conflict or natural phenomenon has major humanitarian consequences. A society’s vulnerability increases when its capacity for strategic planning and preparedness is undermined, for example due to poverty or conflict. The combination of population growth, migration, urbanisation and a fragile state increases the risk associated with inadequate urban planning and governance. Throughout the world, degradation of natural ecosystems is already affecting large numbers of indigenous people, who are the most dependent on local natural resources for their livelihoods.

Source Munich Re

Greater focus on disaster risk reduction tends to encourage reviews of existing early warning and preparedness systems with a view to identifying weaknesses in humanitarian response mechanisms and insufficient capacity in international organisations, etc. This white paper is no exception. These tools must be included in the analysis. But effective disaster risk reduction efforts must first and foremost focus on the people who are affected.

These efforts must be based on the rights of the vulnerable. These rights are defined in the human rights conventions and require states that are vulnerable to humanitarian crises and the international community to provide assistance and protection to vulnerable population groups.

However, people who are affected by humanitarian crises are not just vulnerable, passive victims; they are subjects, they have rights, they are participating members of society. From a rights perspective, it is important that their participation is strengthened through risk reduction efforts so that they are better able to take responsibility for their own lives and their local communities. Those we are seeking to help should be regarded as resource persons, recipients of help to self-help, agents of change in efforts to make the national authorities take responsibility for fulfilling their obligations with regard to reducing vulnerability.

3.2.1 Gender perspectives

Women and men, and girls and boys are affected differently and play different roles in humanitarian crises. As much as 70–80% of the world’s approximately 25 million internally displaced persons are women and children. 8 Significantly more women than men die in connection with natural disasters, and this affects the life expectancy of women in the countries that are hit/affected. 9 Seven out of ten people who are affected by famine are women or children. Women and girls who are displaced are particularly vulnerable to violence and sexual abuse in connection with armed conflicts. Moreover, in many cases such abuses increase once a war or armed conflict has come to an end and may continue for a long time after a peace agreement has been signed.

Poverty is unevenly distributed in terms of gender. The majority of the world’s poor are women and therefore more vulnerable to humanitarian crises. This also applies to rich countries such as Japan, where one and a half times as many women as men died in the Kobe earthquake in 1995. This was because many older women were living in poor housing.

The gender perspective is often neglected in the period immediately after a conflict. Women possess important knowledge of how society deals with different types of stress and have an important role to play in peace and reconciliation processes. Involving women and women’s organisations in reconstruction efforts is important both in terms of creating lasting stable peace, and for enhancing women’s opportunities to participate in political, economic and social life after the peace process is over. At the same time, women’s participation in the reconciliation process can make them more vulnerable to attack from actors who have an interest in the conflict continuing.

Population growth and urbanisation have major consequences for relations between men and women. The number of women-headed households is increasing, particularly in the growing slum areas. These women have limited financial resources but they have major care-giving tasks. They play a key role when local communities hit by disaster try to restore «normal» conditions.

Efforts to put an end to impunity for crimes such as sexual and gender-based violence are vital from a disaster risk reduction perspective. It is important that a gender perspective is applied in the (re)establishment of the rule of law in order to ensure that women are as well protected under the law as men. Women and girls must therefore be actively drawn into these processes from the start, and must have real influence on the final design of institutions and legislation.

The Government gives priority to the particular vulnerability and needs of women in connection with humanitarian crises. This does not mean that women are vulnerable in every crisis situation. Nor does it mean that boys and men are not particularly vulnerable in certain situations. The vulnerability of both sexes and all age groups must be seen in the light of the situation and context in question.

The fact that so many boys and men are killed in connection with violent conflict is an important reason why the proportion of women and girls among refugees and internally displaced persons is so high. The loss of a parent has both economic and social consequences for the rest of the family, and the splitting up of families, as often occurs during humanitarian crises, also affects all the family members.

3.2.2 Children and young people

Both natural disasters and complex crises create particular challenges in terms of protecting the civilian population, not least children and young people. Such crises entail greater risk of violence, abuse, discrimination and neglect, as well as a deterioration of health and sanitation conditions and disrupted schooling. In conflict situations there is also a risk of children and young people with no alternative means of providing for themselves being recruited by armed groups.

The sooner children’s and young people’s rights are incorporated into ceasefire and peace agreements the better. Important tools in disaster risk reduction efforts relating to children and young people are the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child and the Optional Protocol on the involvement of children in armed conflict, as well as Security Council resolution 1612 (2005) and the Paris Principles and Guidelines on Children Associated with Armed Forces or Armed Groups (February 2007).

In many countries, children and young people under the age of 24 account for 40–50% of the urban population. These are vulnerable groups in crisis situations caused by political polarisation, ethnic rivalries, violent conflict and the loss of their parents in natural disasters. However, new studies show that children and young people have never been healthier or better educated than today. 10 They therefore have a better starting point for participating in risk reduction efforts that relate to their own situation.

Developing safe and secure cities will be a core element in national authorities’ efforts to prevent armed violence and protect civilians in the years to come. The increasing violence and potential for conflict in densely populated areas is a risk for young people, particularly young men, who are easily recruited by the warring parties.

Formal schooling is an effective means of protecting children. Schooling involves registration, supervision and follow-up and helps to prevent recruitment, abuse and human trafficking.

Children and young people are already often involved in a number of activities through their family, school, sports clubs, youth organisations, youth clubs and other local networks. Much can be achieved by developing existing activities and organisations and building on the motivation and commitment that young people have. Children and young people are a resource that can be mobilised in disaster risk reduction efforts both before and after humanitarian emergencies; they are a resource that is often not recognised. It is important that special measures are implemented to reintegrate children and young people in connection with reconstruction efforts. Special measures are particularly important for young people and children over the age of 12. Vocational training is vital for utilising young people’s resources in the local community.

3.2.3 Hotspots

Together with the World Bank, ProVention has identified hotspots – countries and areas that are most vulnerable to natural disasters. 11 Studies show a strong correlation between population density, geography and natural disaster risk. Some 3.4 billion people – more than half the world’s population – are highly vulnerable to at least one type of natural disaster (earthquake, volcanic eruption, landslide, flooding, drought, hurricane). Over 100 million people are vulnerable to three or more such risk factors. The most vulnerable countries and cities risk major humanitarian loss and economic setbacks due to the high concentration of people, infrastructure and business activity within limited geographical areas.

We cannot avoid exposure to risk. But, by increasing resilience, we can help to prevent crises in hotspots developing into humanitarian crises. An important factor is the extent to which crisis preparedness and planning have been institutionalised and coordinated. Insufficient decentralisation and poor coordination between central and local authorities undermine disaster risk reduction capacity. Out-dated and poorly maintained warning and information systems increase vulnerability, as do inadequate involvement, training and awareness raising of the population.

Source German Advisory Council on Global Change

3.2.4 Fragile states

States that do not function well politically, economically or socially are a danger to their own population and to the world at large. The Palestinian Territory, Sudan, Afghanistan, DR Congo, Sierra Leone, Liberia and Burundi are examples of states and areas that are struggling to build a viable polity and stabilise the political, economic, social and to some extent environmental situation. It is in such places that the capacity for adaptation to new risk factors is lowest. Fragile states have the potential to create fragile regions through the ripple effects of conflict, and climate and environmental change, etc., as we have seen in countries like Sudan, Chad and the Central African Republic.

According to the World Bank, the number of fragile states has risen from 17 in 2003 to 26 in 2006. This sharp increase entails a serious risk for regional and global security. Today, around 500 million people are living in fragile states, including a third of the world’s poorest. Unless decisive action is taken to reduce these countries’ vulnerability to humanitarian crises, we will see an increase in the number of fatalities and internally displaced persons, setbacks in the social and economic development in many countries, and deeply entrenched poverty.

In the course of the next few years, extreme poverty will become even more geographically concentrated. An increasing number of the world’s poor will live in fragile states.

There is international agreement that development assistance to fragile states must be increased and better coordinated between donors on the basis of the OECD-DAC Principles for Good International Engagement in Fragile States. In these efforts, a conflict sensitive approach must be employed which is based on the particular country’s situation and the need to consider statebuilding and peacebuilding in relation to one another.

Efforts to build up civil society in fragile states must also be intensified. Civil society plays an important role as a provider or services and a driving force in efforts to improve governance and to ensure that the authorities take greater responsibility for the population. This is also a decisive factor in efforts to reduce vulnerability to various types of humanitarian crises.