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4 The Government’s goals and strategies for the future transport sector

The Government presents a comprehensive strategy based on the national transport policy goals in the report on the National Transport Plan 2025–2036. A goal structure involving an overarching goal and five main objectives for transport policy is continued (Figure 4.1). The overriding goal for transport policy is an efficient, environmentally friendly, and safe transport system nationwide in 2050.

The goals outline what is to be achieved through policy. Although the goals have been continued over time, their content and significance will vary based on short-term and long-term political priorities and challenges. The report on the National Transport Plan 2025–2036 is presented during a period of international instability, which, among other things, means that civil protection and preparedness play a more significant role in transport policy. On the other hand, the climate and nature crises lead to a greater emphasis on measures that reduce greenhouse gas emissions, mitigate adverse impacts on nature, and adapt infrastructure to climate change. Furthermore, the Government’s commitments to combating social dumping and ensuring decent working conditions also impact transport policy.

The transport policy goals, along with the priorities outlined in the white paper and the Storting’s consideration thereof, will form the basis for implementing the National Transport Plan. This will take place through the annual National Budgets and subsequent efforts within the transport sector.

The transport policy goals are aligned with and contribute to Norway’s pursuit of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals.

4.1 Improved mobility for people and businesses nationwide

The National Transport Plan 2025–2036 aims to facilitate daily travel for people and enhance competitiveness for businesses.

Mobility is the purpose of the transport system. It contributes to economic growth by enabling workforce participation, utilisation of the country’s resources, and trade with the rest of the world.

Economic growth and population trends significantly impact future transport demand. Statistics Norway’s population projections from 2022 indicate that Norway’s population will grow from 5.4 million to 6.1 million by 2060. The growth is expected to be particularly significant in densely populated areas such as the Greater Oslo Region and around the major cities. Projections and forecasts form part of the basis for the Government’s policy development and proposed measures.

Over time, a framework and empirical knowledge have been developed to assess future transport demand, similar to the population projections, based on historical trends. The Government will initiate efforts to improve analytical methods so that future national transport plans can facilitate an even better decision-making basis, with the aim of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector and contribute to the fulfilment of Norway’s international climate and environmental commitments.

Together with the Government’s focus on regional aviation and ferries, the priorities in the National Transport Plan 2025–2036 aim to make living and working throughout the country an attractive prospect. The Government intends this focus to alleviate centralisation pressure by making it more appealing to establish workplaces and settle outside the largest urban areas.

The road network will continue to evolve to securely connect the country. The Government will maintain the existing airport structure and facilitate a robust domestic and international flight network within Norway.

At the same time, the transport plan aims to create favourable conditions for continued climate and environmentally friendly urban development with good mobility and accessibility. The Government will renegotiate and extend existing Urban Growth Agreements. During the planning period, negotiations may extend to the Buskerudbyen and Grenland areas. The zero-growth goal for passenger car traffic will continue to guide collaboration between central and local government. The new railway strategy proposed by the Government will contribute to efficient and environmentally friendly transportation to and from cities.

The Government will invest in maintaining the nationwide transport infrastructure. A strong focus on improvement projects and smaller investments in existing road and rail infrastructure will enhance infrastructure utilisation, improve punctuality on railways, enhance safety, and increase resilience against climate change. Prioritising small-scale investments over larger projects also contributes to reduced greenhouse gas emissions and environmental disruption. The Government aims to empower the county authorities to prioritise efforts to upgrade county road networks.

In freight transport, the Government encourages all modes of transport to develop their strengths in relevant markets. Enhancing the competitiveness of businesses involves facilitating efficient, safe, and environmentally friendly transport nationwide.

Geographically dispersed port services are crucial for the competitiveness of maritime transport, especially along the coast. The Government will support and further develop a decentralised port structure. Fishing ports are essential components of the infrastructure for fishing-dependent coastal communities and other maritime economic activities. During the planning period, the Government will increase capacity and efficiency in fishing ports through investments in state-owned fishing port facilities and grants for municipal fishing port initiatives.

Based on completed concept studies, consultations, and external quality assurance, the Government will decide which concepts to adopt for further development of transport solutions in Northern Norway.

4.2 More climate and environmentally friendly transport

The National Transport Plan 2025–2036 aims to contribute to the fulfilment of Norway’s climate and environmental goals.

The transport sector accounts for approximately one-third of Norway’s greenhouse gas emissions. During the planning period, the Government will focus efforts on segments within the transport sector that are expected to have significant residual emissions after 2030. These segments include heavy road vehicles, construction machinery, and maritime transport. The Government also aims to facilitate the transition of aviation to zero- and low-emission solutions.

In road transport, heavy vehicles represent the largest source of emissions going forward. The Government will implement a package of measures to reduce emissions from such vehicles. The key measures presented in the National Transport Plan 2025–2036 to reduce emissions from heavy vehicles are to accelerate the provision of rest areas and overnight stops and ensure the establishment of charging infrastructure at such stops.

To reduce emissions from construction machinery, the Government will, among other measures, continue the subsidy programme for emission-free construction sites until 2027.

Figure 4.4 Percentage of zero-emission vehicles of all first time-registered vehicles in 2023

Regarding maritime transport, the Government will, among other measures, assess the transport needs that coastal route operations should meet, evaluate their environmental impact and explore the potential for further tightening of environmental requirements. Additionally, the Government will investigate whether ports can require vessels to use electricity or other low- or zero-emission fuels when calling at and using the port.

Emissions from the aviation sector must be reduced. Therefore, for the first time, funds are prioritised to accelerate the adoption of zero- and low-emission aviation in Norway.

In addition to emissions, the development, operation, and maintenance of transport infrastructure has adverse consequences for nature and the environment, local air pollution and noise levels. The Government will shift focus from large investment projects to improvement, operation, and maintenance during the planning period, benefiting both the climate and nature.

Biodiversity loss is also a serious concern. The transport sector adversely impacts biodiversity and aquatic environments through infrastructure construction, maintenance, and traffic. Pre-assessment studies and planning under the Planning and Building Act are essential tools for safeguarding nature.

When developing transport infrastructure, the planning of projects through areas of national or significant regional climate and environmental interest should be avoided.

Reducing land use impact is crucial for the transport sector. The new road standards established in autumn 2023 support this goal. To prevent unnecessary destruction of natural areas and cultivated land and to reduce the overall impact of transport, it is essential to promote less car dependency, improve public transportation, densify around transit hubs, and encourage cycling and walking.

Moving forward, it will be important to quantify the extent of natural areas with varying values that are affected by development. The Ministry of Transport will encourage the transport agencies to continue developing a land account and biodiversity indicator during the planning period.

4.3 New and reinforced measures for enhanced transport safety

The National Transport Plan 2025–2036 aims to eliminate accidents resulting in fatalities or serious injuries within the transport sector (“Vision Zero”).

Safety levels for rail, air, and sea transport are consistently high, and the Government intends to maintain this low accident risk. The most significant safety challenge lies within the road sector. Despite years of declining fatalities in road traffic, the number of deaths has increased in the last two years, and the favourable trend has plateaued. This is illustrated in Figure 4.6.

To achieve Vision Zero for transport accidents, the Government has set intermediate goals for the planning period. By 2030, the target is a maximum of 350 fatalities and serious injuries in road traffic, of which no more than 50 are fatalities. Ultimately, the goal is to eliminate fatalities in road traffic by 2050. Additionally, the Government has established Vision Zero for the elimination of fatalities or serious injuries on vessels and facilities under the jurisdiction of the Norwegian Maritime Authority.

The 2030 intermediate goal entails reducing the number of fatalities in road traffic by more than half during the first six-year period. To achieve this, the Government will intensify efforts in road safety work, including increased control and enforcement, targeted campaigns, and smaller infrastructure measures on segments with documented safety needs. The use of automatic traffic control will be expanded, and regulatory changes will address unwanted risky behaviour on the roads including through the confiscation of vehicles in cases of high-speed driving and prohibiting any use of mobile phones while driving. The Government will also consider prohibiting warning services that reduce the effectiveness of police control activities on the roads. Furthermore, targeted efforts will address specific accident types and vulnerable road user groups, including motorcyclists, heavy goods vehicles, young people and young drivers, elderly road users, pedestrians and cyclists.

Figure 4.6 Development of fatalities and serious injuries in road traffic, and targets for 2030 and 2050

The level of ambition is high and requires sustained and increased national road safety efforts. Norway’s road safety efforts are based on science and cooperation between central, regional and local authorities in addition to interest groups and businesses. The National Action Plan for Road Safety contains a wide range of knowledge-based measures with various stakeholders assigned responsibility for implementing them.

Continuous work on the operation and maintenance of road infrastructure is crucial for road safety. The Government’s prioritisation of maintenance, improvements, and renewal during the planning period will contribute to enhanced safety on our roads.

4.4 Increased emphasis on civil protection and climate adaption

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has altered Norway’s security environment. Norway’s significance as a host nation and transit area for allied forces has grown following the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO. Civil protection efforts in the transport sector must adapt to changes in the security environment.

Several prioritised projects and measures in the planning period will have significant benefits for civil protection and safety. During the planning period, civil protection and safety, including military mobility, will also be taken into account when assessing measures. Such measures will be prioritised where they have the greatest effect in accordance with military plans and identified operational demands.

The total defence concept encompasses mutual support between the Norwegian Armed Forces and civil society across the entire crisis spectrum, from peacetime through security crises to armed conflict. The Government aims to establish a clearer framework for collaboration between the transport and defence sectors to ensure effective identification and prioritisation of military needs within the total defence concept in the years ahead.

The county authorities play a vital role in civil protection and safety on county road networks, particularly as these roads serve as detour routes. Many county road segments are also critical for military mobility. The Government plans to introduce a dedicated funding scheme for the county authorities to upgrade critical bridges for military mobility.

Transport preparedness is a crucial part of national emergency preparedness and total defence. The Government will enhance cooperation between the central government, private stakeholders, and county authorities to maintain sufficient transport capacity during crises. Additionally, the Government will further develop the Nordic cooperation on resilience and civil emergency preparedness in the transport domain.

Complex digital systems and services, including intelligent transport systems, are increasingly important in the transport sector. While this development has several positive implications for transport, it also introduces digital dependence as a significant vulnerability for the entire transport system. The Government therefore aims to enhance the ability to handle unwanted cyber incidents in the transport sector.

Climate change is occurring faster, and its consequences are more extensive than previously anticipated. This has implications for transport safety, accessibility, and capacity. The Government’s prioritisation of operation and maintenance is a crucial step toward adapting transport infrastructure to a changing climate.

4.5 Digitalisation and new technologies for a more efficient transport system

Transport in the future will be more automated, more shared, and more connected, and will have to be low or zero-emission, all enabled by new technologies. The effective use of new technologies has the potential to profoundly transform the Norwegian transport system and will contribute to achieving policy objectives such as improved accessibility, fewer traffic accidents, and reduced greenhouse gas emissions and adverse environmental impact. Thus, the use of new technologies is a priority of the National Transport Plan 2025–2036.

New technologies enable better utilisation of the capacity of existing infrastructure and transport services. There is residual capacity in the transport system that needs to be more effectively harnessed by developing and deploying new digital applications and solutions that enable higher capacity utilisation. It will also be important in the coming years to make use of the vast amounts of data generated in the transport system, to improve the management of traffic and road users’ behaviour.

The Government has prioritised digitalisation of the transport system, more and better use of transport data and harnessing the possibilities brought on by artificial intelligence. The Government will also aim to develop digitalisation-friendly regulations, to as far as possible avoid situations where regulation poses an obstacle to digitalised mobility solutions. Furthermore, the Government will support research, development and pilot projects, both within the transport agencies and public enterprises, and through established R&D funding mechanisms. In addition, the Government plans to establish one or more new research centres (known as Transport 2050). These centres will carry out research that is intended to support the knowledge base for decision-making processes in the Norwegian transport sector, particularly in relation to the Green Transition.