5 Priorities in the planning period – allocation of resources

5.1 Redirect resources toward existing transport infrastructure

The Government’s priorities for the planning period are based on a financial framework involving a total planned expenditure of NOK 1,308 billion, of which NOK 1,208 billion from central government funds and NOK 100 billion from road toll revenues. The central government funding in the plan is comparable to the level outlined in Report to the Storting (white paper) No. 20 (2020–2021) National Transport Plan 2022–2033.

Given the condition of transport infrastructure, added strain due to climate change, and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and minimise environmental impact, a different resource allocation approach is required to achieve the transport policy goals compared to the National Transport Plan 2022–2033.

The Government believes that persistent maintenance backlog in transport infrastructure and the impact of extreme weather events necessitate prioritising operation and maintenance moving forward. The heightened vulnerability resulting from climate change requires a more resilient infrastructure. In the railway sector, significant portions of the infrastructure are approaching or have exceeded their technical lifespan. Several railway lines have catenary systems that are over 70 years old. The national road network has undergone a gradual deterioration, while parts of the infrastructure are nearing their technical lifespan. Many bridges and ferry docks are over 50 years old. The existing transport system must be upgraded, and maintenance efforts should be directed where the needs are greatest.

The Government aims to shift focus from large investment projects to maintenance, renewal, and smaller investment measures during the planning period. Renewal and smaller investments in existing infrastructure will contribute to improved punctuality in rail transport, enhanced traffic safety, and reduced landslide risk.

The Government has prioritised an annual average of a total of NOK 40 billion for maintenance, operation, and smaller investment measures, along with NOK 35 billion for major investments during the planning period. The overall financial framework is distributed with 40 per cent to maintenance, operation, and smaller investments and 34 per cent to major investments. In the National Transport Plan 2022–2033, the corresponding distribution was 34 per cent and 44 per cent, respectively.

5.2 Large investment projects, urban areas, and county authority transport

In addition to maintaining, improving, and renewing infrastructure, the Government is planning new investment projects where necessary. A total of NOK 350 billion is prioritised for major investments during the planning period. Additionally, Nye Veier’s planning framework amounts to NOK 78 billion. The completion of major investment projects initiated before the beginning of the planning period is currently estimated to cost NOK 144 billion in central government funds. Of this total, 45 per cent is to road investments, including existing Public-Private Partnership (PPP) contracts, 41 per cent to railway investments, 8 per cent to state contributions for major public transport projects in urban areas, 3 per cent to maritime investments (including reimbursement obligations), and 3 per cent for the completion of airports in Mo i Rana and Bodø. These projects include those that were approved for commencement in the 2024 National Budget or earlier.

The Government will revisit these priorities each year during the planning period through the annual National Budgets.

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The investment projects aim to increase railway capacity, reduce travel times on the national road network, and lower transport costs. The portfolio management system for major investment projects will continue during the planning period. The transport agencies will continue to optimise investment projects and use resources as efficiently as possible, including by adopting new technologies.

For urban areas, including follow-up on the central government’s contributions to Urban Growth Agreements and major public transport projects, a total of NOK 88 billion is prioritised in the planning period. These efforts aim to help cities achieve the zero-growth goal for passenger car traffic.

The county authorities receive the majority of funds for their responsibilities in the transport sector through the General Purpose Grant Scheme, which distributes unrestricted funds to the municipalities and county authorities. The Government prioritises additional funds for county roads distributed through the General Purpose Grant Scheme, as well as certain grants managed by the Norwegian Public Roads Administration. A total of NOK 65 billion is prioritised during the planning period.

The total average annual level in government funding is NOK 100.7 billion in the twelve-year period. Table 5.1 illustrates the distribution of the overall budget for the National Transport Plan 2025–2036 (central government funds) as annual averages across various purposes.

The central government funds over twelve years are distributed as follows in the National Transport Plan 2025–2036; NOK 574 billion for national roads, NOK 65 billion for grants for county roads, NOK 436 billion for railway purposes, NOK 34 billion for coastal administration and maritime infrastructure, NOK 88 billion for urban area measures, NOK 5.5 billion for aviation, and NOK 5 billion for cross-sector initiatives.

Table 5.2 illustrates the distribution between sectors in the National Transport Plan 2025–2036 as annual averages compared to the National Transport Plan 2022–2033.

5.3 Priorities within the individual sectors

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5.3.1 The Road Sector

Roads play a crucial role in mobility, business, and emergency preparedness in Norway. Road transport accounted for 86 per cent of passenger transport work and 54 per cent of domestic freight transport work in Norway in 2022. Ferries also represent an important part of the road network. Improved facilities for pedestrians and cyclists have been developed, especially in the largest urban areas, which is essential for vulnerable road users.

The road network is divided between national, county and municipal roads. The overall condition of the national road network is good, though there is a need to eliminate bottlenecks and upgrade infrastructure. Challenges include a maintenance backlog and increased demands on what the road network must withstand.

Strategy for the National Road Network

The Government’s main strategy for the national road network is to preserve existing infrastructure, improve infrastructure where possible, and construct new where necessary. The strategy will contribute to a better everyday life for people nationwide. By prioritising operation, maintenance, renewal and improvements, more measures can be implemented across larger geographical areas. Increased funding for maintenance helps prevent unwanted incidents, which is especially important considering climate change and more frequent extreme weather events. Taking action on existing roads also reduces land use impact.

Improvement of bridges, road structures, and tunnel upgrades is necessary. Large investment projects, such as those by the Norwegian Public Roads Administration and Nye Veier AS, connect the country, eliminate bottlenecks, and reduce the risk of accidents and landslides.

Military Mobility Needs

The road network must be able to handle military transport, especially considering allied and national military materiel transport. The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO increases the importance of cross-border west-to-east axes. There is a significant need to upgrade the national road network to ensure the capacity of road and bridge infrastructure to handle national defence needs in Norway and serve as a transit area for allied forces with heavy military equipment and logistics.

Technology

Efficient use of technology and information for travellers is critical in a vast and weather-prone country. To realise the strategy for the national road network, it is necessary to adopt new working methods and increase the use of technology in the road sector. The Government prioritises Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS), which are technological solutions to make transportation safer, more efficient, and more sustainable.

Reduced Emissions

Greenhouse gas emissions from road transport must be reduced. Electrification of the heavy truck fleet is a crucial part of the Government’s climate measures, and to ensure predictable charging conditions, more rest areas with charging facilities are needed. This will not only support electrification but also improve working conditions for professional drivers. During the planning period, NOK 3.7 billion is prioritised for heavy vehicle charging and the development of rest areas. The goal is to meet the estimated need for rest areas along the national road network during the first six-year period.

Initiated Major National Road Projects

At the beginning of the new planning period, activity in ongoing road sector projects is high. The Norwegian Public Roads Administration has several major projects under construction that will require significant resources in the coming years. The need for central government funding to maintain efficient construction operations in already initiated projects is estimated at NOK 64 billion in the first six-year period, including operation and maintenance for Public-Private Partnership-funded (PPP) stretches of road. Additionally, toll fees amount to NOK 38.5 billion.

Portfolio Management Continues

The Government plans to divide the portfolio of major investment projects for the Norwegian Public Roads Administration into a planning portfolio and a development portfolio. The planning portfolio should be achievable within 12 years, while the development portfolio will include sections where larger expansions are not currently feasible but where there may be room for smaller activities.

The planning portfolio consists of 29 projects with estimated costs exceeding NOK 1 billion. Additionally, the Government prioritises the development of European route E16 between Arna and Stanghelle as a joint project with the expansion of the Voss Line. The project is part of the main transport corridor between Oslo and Bergen. It aims to address current challenges on the route related to landslide risk and traffic safety, as well as compliance with the EU directive on road tunnel safety.

Financial Framework for the Road Sector

The Government has prioritised NOK 574 billion in central funds for developing the national road network during the planning period, with NOK 496 billion for the Norwegian Public Roads Administration and NOK 78 billion for Nye Veier AS. In addition, NOK 100 billion in funding will derive from toll fees. Despite significant commitments related to ongoing investment projects at the beginning of the planning period, the Government aims to gradually increase the funds for the national roads, with a greater emphasis on operation, maintenance, and smaller investments rather than large projects.

County Road Network

The county road network is extensive and serves essential functions for personal transportation and business. The 15 county authorities manage and ensure operation, maintenance and investment in their respective road networks. The Government prioritises upgrading the county road network, focusing on traffic safety and climate adaptation. Increased budgets provide county authorities with the means to maintain roads and achieve national transportation goals. The Ministry of Transport will also obtain more information regarding operation and maintenance on both national and county roads, including tunnel improvements on county roads.

5.3.2 The Role of Railways in the Transport System

Projected Population Growth and Transport Needs

The Norwegian population is projected to reach 6.1 million by 2060, with most people living in urban areas. This urban concentration necessitates the further development of the transport system to meet the demands for mobility. By 2050, the population in the Greater Oslo Region is expected to increase by about 350,000. Effective transport solutions, including public transport agreements aiming for zero growth in passenger car traffic, have been crucial in these areas. A well-coordinated public transport network, where buses, trams, metro, and trains complement each other, is essential. Notably, railways constitute the backbone of the public transport system in urban areas, handling a third of daily commutes in and out of Oslo and playing a significant role in the overall transport system.

Growth in Railway Usage

In response to increasing transport needs, significant investments have been made in the railway sector over the past decade, resulting in a marked rise in both passenger and freight traffic. Passenger numbers grew from 62 million in 2012 to 80 million in 2019. By 2023, passenger numbers had returned to pre-pandemic levels, with over 150,000 daily passengers at Oslo Central Station. Freight transport has also seen significant growth, with a 30 per cent increase in track slot applications in 2023 compared to 2022.

Capacity and Punctuality Issues

The increased demand has led to a significant rise in train departures, fully utilising and sometimes overloading the rail network, which in turn impacts punctuality. In 2023, only 87.6 per cent of passenger trains and 75.5 per cent of freight trains met the established targets for punctuality. Infrastructure problems on crucial routes impact approximately 80 per cent of train traffic.

Challenges and Future Needs

Without further development, the railway system will struggle to meet the growing demand for both passenger and freight transport. Road systems are also under pressure due to congestion and environmental issues, despite electrification efforts. Addressing these challenges requires a coordinated approach among different modes of transport and may involve increased regulations and pricing strategies to align with environmental goals.

The Government recognises the need for sustainable transport solutions and aims to continue developing the railway system, particularly in urban areas and for long-distance freight. The focus will be on enhancing capacity, efficiency, and environmental sustainability, especially in the densely populated regions in Eastern Norway. Increased funding and plans for reducing infrastructure maintenance backlog is especially important considering climate change and more frequent bouts of extreme weather.

Strategic Development of the Railway Towards 2050

The Norwegian railway system has evolved through three main phases:

1. Expansion (1850–1960): Continuous network growth and increased train traffic.

2. Deterioration (1960–2010): Limited renewals and maintenance, leading to a growing infrastructure backlog and route closures.

3. Reform (2010–2024): Significant funding increases and sector restructuring.

The Government now aims to usher the railway into a fourth phase by 2050, adapting to contemporary challenges with a long-term, sustainable strategy summarised in seven main points:

1. Upgrade and Maintain Existing Infrastructure. This will ensure that the trains are reliable and arrive on time. Customer satisfaction is prioritised through better and increased maintenance.

2. Complete service improvements currently underway around the largest cities by 2030. In the coming years, travelers will have access to better train services in various parts of the country, such as to the cities of Tønsberg, Hamar, and Moss.

3. Increase Capacity in Urban Areas in the period 2025–2036 through developing the infrastructure in areas with the highest population growth, focusing on the Greater Oslo Region and Trondheim, upgrading overloaded lines and exploring potential benefits of double-decker trains.

4. Promote Growth in Freight Transport and Military Mobility. Transporting goods by rail is climate-friendly and measures taken to strengthen freight transport also benefit military logistical needs.

5. Digital Initiatives for Seamless Travel and Better Data Usage. Improving data sharing will facilitate smoother journeys through digital initiatives and improve service development and traffic management.

6. Increase National Railway Capacity Long-term. To meet the increased demand for transport, rail capacity in Eastern Norway as well as connections between major cities and abroad should be improved. A key issue will be to start planning a new national rail tunnel to address capacity issues by the 2040s.

7. Initiate Key Studies for the Next National Transport Plan, including a comprehensive public transport study for Eastern Norway, a new freight train strategy, and a long-distance train strategy.

5.3.3 The Coastal Sector

The Government has prioritised NOK 34 billion to support efficient, safe, and environmentally friendly maritime transport.

Good accessibility, suitable port infrastructure, and strong connections between the coast and road networks are important for businesses along the entire coastline. As much as 91 per cent of all goods transported between Norway and other countries are transported by sea, with maritime transport accounting for approximately 41 per cent of domestic freight transport. Although maritime passenger transport constitutes a smaller portion of total transportation, it remains crucial for many coastal communities. The maritime transport system includes fairways, ports, and port terminals.

Norwegian waters pose challenges due to topography, weather conditions, and traffic density. While safety for maritime transport in Norway is generally at a high level, the consequences of accidents can be significant. The Government will prioritise safety measures to ensure the continued high standard of safety in Norwegian waters.

Although the environmental impact of maritime transport is lower than that of land-based transport, vessels must transition to zero-emission solutions to achieve the climate goals. The Government will encourage the development and adoption of climate-friendly energy carriers such as hydrogen, ammonia, and biofuel for large vessels.

The maintenance backlog for piers, breakwaters, and fairways associated with fishing ports has grown in recent years. The Government reinstated central government responsibility for fishing ports as of 1 January 2023, and tasked the Norwegian Coastal Administration with assessing the condition of all fishing port facilities. This assessment includes identifying maintenance, repair, and improvement needs.

Main Priorities

In line with the Government’s prioritisation of maintenance and improvements, the plan emphasises maintenance and renewal of fairways, navigation infrastructure, and digital infrastructure and services. This will facilitate safe, environmentally friendly, and efficient maritime transport while preventing or limiting environmental harm caused by acute pollution.

Maritime transport plays an important role in military mobility, and customised port facilities across the country are essential for receiving allied reinforcements. The Norwegian Coastal Administration contributes to Norway`s total defence system through services such as navigation guidance, maritime surveillance, and securing port facilities. Fairway improvements that increase depth and capacity for vessel movements also reduce the risk of accidents, provide alternative shipping routes and contribute to military mobility. Fishing port measures enhance maritime accessibility and support settlement and development in coastal communities in the northern regions.

The Government has prioritised NOK 900 million for minor fairway measures. These are measures with an investment cost of less than NOK 100 million. Although smaller in scale, these combined efforts can significantly improve ship traffic and are more flexible and quicker to implement than larger fairway projects. Similar to major investments, these measures contribute to increased maritime safety and improved accessibility by offering alternative fairways.

The grant scheme for efficient and environmentally friendly ports aims to streamline the logistics chain through port initiatives. This can lead to cost savings, improved quality, intermodal cooperation, and positive environmental effects. The Government is prioritising NOK 125 million for the grant scheme. Similarly, the grant scheme for fishing ports aims to stimulate local and regional economic development by partially financing municipal fishing port facilities. The Government is prioritising NOK 80 million for the grant scheme for fishing ports.

Ongoing and New Major Investment Projects

During the first six-year period, initiated fairway projects will be completed, including, among others, the Stad Ship Tunnel. A total of NOK 4.3 billion is prioritised for the completion of initiated measures during the planning period.

The Government is prioritising seven new fairway projects during the initial six-year period to enhance accessibility and safety along the entire Norwegian coast. These will enhance accessibility and safety along the Norwegian coast with safer fairways and the ability for ports to accommodate larger ships.

Fishing ports are pivotal to supporting the fishing-dependent coastal communities and other maritime-related economic activities. It is essential to implement measures that enable fishing ports to serve a modern coastal fleet. The most significant projects are concentrated in the counties of Northern Norway.

Opportunities in the Second Six-Year Period

Maritime transport is evolving, and fairways and fishing ports must be adapted to future needs. The Norwegian Coastal Administration continuously investigates initiatives to enhance accessibility and safety along the coast, in close dialogue with municipalities and county authorities. In 2024, the Norwegian Coastal Administration will conduct assessments for the Nordkapp–Kirkenes, Tromsø–Nordkapp, and Mo i Rana–Bodø stretches.

5.3.4 The Aviation Sector

Aviation plays a crucial role in Norway’s transport system. Vast distances, a dispersed population and challenging topography and climate make aviation essential for ensuring the population’s access to healthcare, education, and other public services, as well as facilitating efficient business and personal travel, tourism development, and the transport of post and time-sensitive goods.

The fundamental prerequisites for Norwegian aviation are that the central government provides a well-functioning infrastructure and air traffic services and a competitive aviation market with a good quality of service. Where the market alone does not provide satisfactory air services on commercial terms, the central government ensures the transport needs of residents and businesses through the procurement of scheduled air services, known as Public Service Obligation (PSO) routes.

Figure 5.4 shows the Norwegian domestic air transport network in 2023. In addition to a well-developed domestic route network, aviation is crucial for Norway’s international accessibility.

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Source: Avinor AS

The Government published a white paper in January 2023, titled “Sustainable and Safe Aviation – National Aviation Strategy”, cf. Report to the Storting (white paper) No. 10 (2022–2023). This strategy, considered by the Storting in May 2023, outlines goals, instruments, and measures for sustainable aviation, addressing environmental, social, geographical, and economic aspects, including the development of a socially beneficial and sustainable drone industry. The National Transport Plan follows up and reaffirms many of the policy goals and measures in the National Aviation Strategy.

Aviation is characterised by a strong safety focus, high investment costs, and long lead times for new technology development. There is still uncertainty regarding when major technological shifts will occur. However, it is reasonable to expect the testing of new technology and the introduction of new types of aircraft into commercial operation during the planning period. At the same time, conventionally powered aircraft will continue to operate for their lifespan. This will place potentially significant demands on the wholly state-owned airport operator Avinor and the Civil Aviation Authority Norway as a regulatory body. The Ministry of Transport will ensure they have the necessary funds and frameworks to fulfil their respective roles safely and effectively.

Avinor is required to be primarily self-financed. The COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted Avinor’s finances, and future traffic levels are more uncertain. The Government aims to secure sustainable financial conditions for Avinor and is working on concrete measures to achieve a lasting, annual improvement in Avinor’s results.

Aviation will have to undergo a major transition towards climate- and environmentally-friendly solutions if it is to contribute to national and international climate goals. A key measure, especially for larger aircraft, will be the increased use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in conventional aircraft, likely even after 2050. The Government also aims to facilitate an accelerated introduction of zero- and low-emission aircraft. This requires a comprehensive transformation, including developing and adapting regulations, standards, operational concepts, and other public authority tasks for new energy carriers. The ageing regional fleet and challenging Norwegian conditions, such as topography, climate and many short runways, highlight the importance of timely sustainable alternatives. The Ministry of Transport is currently conducting a surveying exercise to implement targeted measures in Norway and to introduce technology suited to Norwegian conditions while reducing emissions.

Even if there is still a lot of uncertainty linked to technological development, the Government has identified a need to strengthen the professional and regulatory facilitation and development of the necessary infrastructure at the airports. The Government has therefore prioritised NOK 1 billion for the transition to more environmentally sustainable solutions in aviation within the planning period. Increased resources will therefore be allocated to the Civil Aviation Authority Norway and Avinor, with market involvement being crucial for finding and operationalising the right measures. Additionally, a forum including the Confederation of Norwegian Enterprise (NHO) and the Norwegian Confederation of Trade Unions (LO) has been established to share viewpoints and develop a unified knowledge base.

As with other transport sectors, technology will be crucial for infrastructure development and mobility. This includes increased drone use and facilitation for new forms of air mobility, eVTOLS (electric vertical take-off and landing) etc. Norway has a leading position in the drone sector which the Government wishes to maintain.

5.3.5 Urban Areas

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The expected population growth in the Greater Oslo Region and around other major cities in Norway will lead to increased demand for transport. Without policy changes, a significant increase in car traffic is expected. This trend is also partly due to the low operating costs of electric vehicles in Norway, for instance, lower toll rates for this category of vehicles, which encourages more people to choose cars for their daily travels.

Road traffic contributes to congestion and local air and noise pollution, particularly in the largest urban areas. Additionally, in cities, road infrastructure occupies considerable space, which is a scarce resource.

The Urban Growth Agreements and the zero-growth goal for passenger car traffic are well-established and essential tools for addressing mobility and congestion challenges and mitigating the adverse impacts of road traffic in urban areas. The zero-growth goal covers several important aspects and is formulated as follows: Greenhouse gas emissions, congestion, local air pollution and noise levels should be reduced through efficient land use and by shifting growth in passenger transport to public transport, cycling and walking.

In the Urban Growth Agreements, central, regional and local government commit to a joint and long-term effort to achieve the zero-growth goal. The agreements aim to strengthen coordination in land use and transport policies. The central government contributes to increased financing of public transport, cycling, and walking, supported by local measures such as restrictive measures against car traffic, efficient land use, and funding for public transport infrastructure and operation.

The four largest urban areas in Norway; Oslo, Bergen, Trondheim and Nord-Jæren (Greater Stavanger), have well-established Urban Growth Agreements, and a new agreement was reached for Tromsø in 2023. Negotiations with Greater Kristiansand and Nedre Glomma (Fredrikstad and Sarpsborg) began in the spring of 2024.

Following a period of decline in passenger traffic by car in the largest urban areas, there has been a growth in recent years. While the cities have achieved the zero-growth goal so far, further traffic growth could pose a threat to goal attainment. Therefore, robust and targeted measures will be necessary in the coming years.

The Government will continue its work with the Urban Growth Agreements to achieve the zero-growth goal during the planning period. Funding for these agreements has increased significantly over time, with a continued focus on public transport, cycling, and walking. However, limited fiscal space will impact the work on these agreements, emphasising the need to effectively maintain and utilise existing infrastructure. Restrictive measures against car traffic and increased urban density around transport hubs are cost-effective solutions with high goal attainment.

The Government also plans to simplify the funding structure within the Urban Growth Agreements providing more local flexibility in prioritisation. This approach places more responsibility on the local parties to achieve the zero-growth goal.

Main Priorities

During the planning period, the Government’s financial framework includes NOK 88 billion to Urban Growth Agreements, reward agreements, and grants for climate-friendly urban development and improved mobility. This amounts to approximately NOK 7.3 billion per year.

A key priority is to facilitate renegotiations of Urban Growth Agreements in the four largest urban areas. This will provide predictability for local authorities beyond the current agreement period (up to 2029). Additionally, negotiations may extend to Buskerudbyen and Grenland. These urban areas currently have reward agreements, and the Government intends to continue these while considering future Urban Growth Agreements. The Urban Growth Agreement for Tromsø may be renegotiated and extended beyond the current period (up to 2032). A similar approach may be considered for Greater Kristiansand and Nedre Glomma if ongoing negotiations in the spring of 2024 result in agreements being reached.

The Government prioritises a 70 per cent central government contribution to the county authority public transport project Bergen Light Rail to Åsane. A final decision from the central government will depend on the outcome of an ongoing assessment regarding route selection and decisions by the City Council, as well as subsequent negotiations between the central government and local authorities.

Additionally, the Government will continue a grant program for climate-friendly urban development and improved mobility in five urban areas not covered by the Urban Growth Agreements. This programme is specifically earmarked for the cities of Bodø, Ålesund, Haugesund, Arendal/Grimstad, and the Vestfold region (Tønsberg, Sandefjord, and Larvik).

Road Tolls Policy

The Norwegian Government aims to allow local authorities to continue contributing to the development of the national road network through toll financing as well as a tool for urban development by regulating traffic and funding investments in public transport and road infrastructure. However, it is essential that road toll financing is at a level that ensures its legitimacy. To this end, the overall toll burden should be considered both during the revision of the National Transport Plan and in the further planning of new projects.

The increasing number of light electric vehicles (passenger cars) poses challenges, leading to more road traffic in cities. To address this, it may be an option during the planning period to increase toll rates for light electric vehicles beyond the current 70 per cent of the regular rate.

Regarding heavy vehicles, the Government plans to continue the current practice of exempting heavy zero-emission vehicles from road tolls. There will be no toll charges for heavy zero-emission vehicles until 2030.

For projects focused on improving traffic flow near urban areas, while also aligning with the zero-growth goal, the Government is considering time- and environment-based differentiated toll rates for specific road projects that pass through or near urban areas covered by toll-financed urban packages.

To enhance resource utilisation, the Government is prioritising smaller investments and renewal projects over large investment projects. The Norwegian Public Roads Administration and Nye Veier can therefore explore road tolls in these kinds of projects if there is local political interest.